Brown Nose tries idiot betting . . .

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Here's one to consider (which typically flies in the face of everything I said earlier!) As I said,never bother with those "money back if your 5 fold acca loses" offers.BUT...an exception has appeared! Most of them have a minimum odds requirement but currently Ladbrokes are running one every Saturday that doesn't.This means you can skew the percentage in your favour.Pick 3 or 4 very low priced bankers (Barca,Real,Bayern,Benfica at home etc) & then sling in one or 2 at higher odds that you're confident about to boost the odds total a bit & see what happens.I recon if you do it right you can nail 60/70 % of bets for a return across the season.Max bet is 25 quid (or rather that's the maximum return so definitely don't bet more than that) If one team loses you get your money back as a free bet so if you know how to match the free bet on Betfair you can guarantee a 50% return in actual cash,Over the season this should be enough of an edge to engineer a decent profit.Assuming you don't top up the acca with ludicrous bets of course.
 
Fifty bets placed, total outlay £200 and I got a 60% ROI. So I'm £80 down.

Betting on goalscorers each way isn't very effective. I got three first goalscorers but nothing much from the follow up goalscorers. Obviously, this would change over time but not by much. The return isn't worth the bet.

Conclusion = it is a silly thing to do.

I have read with interest the posts from people promoting alternatives. Backing a series of winners each week appears to be a popular bet but it isn't one that I think makes much sense. You naturally back the favourites in almost all cases so the ROI is minimal and all you need is one strange result to ruin it all. The larger the risk, the more likely to fail so you naturally pick the safe options and they don't exist in football. It strikes me as the sort of thing gamblers do and I'm not a gambler.

I'm thinking about where I can get an edge on the odds and the only thing I can think of is betting exclusively on Leicester City. I know them better than the bookies. If I can remove sentiment and just use my knowledge, I should have an edge.

Therefore, in September, my bets will be exclusively on City matches. I will do a combination of different sort of bets designed to spread my risk and widen the opportunity for me to know more than the odds makers. I'll place about £25 on each match across about five different things. Any thoughts on this proposal?
 
interesting. What's the "matching the free bet with Betfair"?

You take your free bet & back anything you like with it at odds in excess of 3.00 then find the same bet on Betfair with a very close match in terms of the odds on offer.You then lay the same bet so you are effectively backing both results.

Whatever happens you will now have got back between 50/70% usually of the value of the free bet in real cash.So instead of having lost £25 you've only lost 10 to 12.50 or so,This limits your loss making over the course of the season & leaves you needing to have less winners to turn a long term profit.

Limiting loss is every bit as important as finding winners if you want long term profitability but most people who bet don't even consider it.That's why 97% of punters lose overall & bookies holiday in the Maldives.
 
Fifty bets placed, total outlay £200 and I got a 60% ROI. So I'm £80 down.

Betting on goalscorers each way isn't very effective. I got three first goalscorers but nothing much from the follow up goalscorers. Obviously, this would change over time but not by much. The return isn't worth the bet.

Conclusion = it is a silly thing to do.

I have read with interest the posts from people promoting alternatives. Backing a series of winners each week appears to be a popular bet but it isn't one that I think makes much sense. You naturally back the favourites in almost all cases so the ROI is minimal and all you need is one strange result to ruin it all. The larger the risk, the more likely to fail so you naturally pick the safe options and they don't exist in football. It strikes me as the sort of thing gamblers do and I'm not a gambler.

I'm thinking about where I can get an edge on the odds and the only thing I can think of is betting exclusively on Leicester City. I know them better than the bookies. If I can remove sentiment and just use my knowledge, I should have an edge.

Therefore, in September, my bets will be exclusively on City matches. I will do a combination of different sort of bets designed to spread my risk and widen the opportunity for me to know more than the odds makers. I'll place about £25 on each match across about five different things. Any thoughts on this proposal?


Not entirely true.There are safe options in football but you have to know where to look.You're right to say that the odds are always low which is where the acca comes into it's own.It's the combinations that generate the profit but only as long as you know what they are & that they're real rather than just perceived.
The other essential is to always look long term.I always allocate a betting bank at the start of the season & take out the profit after the CL final in May.I don't worry about the ups & downs month to month.If I did it'd drive me insane.I just regard that money as not existing between August & May & to be spent in the Summer.As if it was in a notice savings account.

Here's my banker portfolio which forms the backbone of the acca strategy.I use these in combination with others at slightly riskier odds,usually in doubles & trebles.This is where the value comes in as obviously backing them as singles will only return miniscule profits but as a starting point they eliminate a lot of work in finding combinations to use.

1) Portugal - Benfica,Porto & Sporting lost only ONE home game between them last season

2) Olympiakos - only failed to win at home 3 times in the last 2 seasons

3) Real & Barca - both won 16 out of 19 home games last season.But the killer stat is that 15 (Real) & 14 (Barca) were by more than one goal.Backing the -1 handicap increases the returns significantly.

4) PSG - Lost at home to Barca last season.That was their first home defeat in Europe in 33 games!

5) Olympiakos (again) - In the CL this is my favourite.In 4 seasons they've won 10 out of 13 home games...& LOST 9 out of 13 away! This Jekyll & Hyde stuff means they are often over fancied on their travels so backing the draw & the win for their opponents or just laying the Greeks is profitable over the season.
 
Not entirely true.There are safe options in football but you have to know where to look.You're right to say that the odds are always low which is where the acca comes into it's own.It's the combinations that generate the profit but only as long as you know what they are & that they're real rather than just perceived.
The other essential is to always look long term.I always allocate a betting bank at the start of the season & take out the profit after the CL final in May.I don't worry about the ups & downs month to month.If I did it'd drive me insane.I just regard that money as not existing between August & May & to be spent in the Summer.As if it was in a notice savings account.

Here's my banker portfolio which forms the backbone of the acca strategy.I use these in combination with others at slightly riskier odds,usually in doubles & trebles.This is where the value comes in as obviously backing them as singles will only return miniscule profits but as a starting point they eliminate a lot of work in finding combinations to use.

1) Portugal - Benfica,Porto & Sporting lost only ONE home game between them last season

2) Olympiakos - only failed to win at home 3 times in the last 2 seasons

3) Real & Barca - both won 16 out of 19 home games last season.But the killer stat is that 15 (Real) & 14 (Barca) were by more than one goal.Backing the -1 handicap increases the returns significantly.

4) PSG - Lost at home to Barca last season.That was their first home defeat in Europe in 33 games!

5) Olympiakos (again) - In the CL this is my favourite.In 4 seasons they've won 10 out of 13 home games...& LOST 9 out of 13 away! This Jekyll & Hyde stuff means they are often over fancied on their travels so backing the draw & the win for their opponents or just laying the Greeks is profitable over the season.

Nice analysis.

Although I would imagine even doubling and trebling any combo of those teams at home would yield very small return, unless you are staking a significant amount from the off?
 
Nice analysis.

Although I would imagine even doubling and trebling any combo of those teams at home would yield very small return, unless you are staking a significant amount from the off?


True.As stated these are the backbone of the accas.I combine them with longer odds selections.In a double it would need to be quite a reasonable price (3.0 or over) so I mostly use trebles.2 of these very short picks combined with a 2.0 or higher third selection or 1 of the bankers plus 2 at 1.5 or above.Plus I'll usually place 3 or 4 combinations in any given round of matches.It's a slow build profit strategy measured over 9 months.No single bet over £25.
Last season's total profit was £614.

I also back horses,sometimes Tennis & dabble in the NFL Plus I have an ante-post football portfolio (that returned £176 last season which I added to the £614...so £790 from the football season as a whole) Never going to make me rich but pays for a few treats through the year.
 
Fifty bets placed, total outlay £200 and I got a 60% ROI. So I'm £80 down.

Betting on goalscorers each way isn't very effective. I got three first goalscorers but nothing much from the follow up goalscorers. Obviously, this would change over time but not by much. The return isn't worth the bet.

Conclusion = it is a silly thing to do.

I have read with interest the posts from people promoting alternatives. Backing a series of winners each week appears to be a popular bet but it isn't one that I think makes much sense. You naturally back the favourites in almost all cases so the ROI is minimal and all you need is one strange result to ruin it all. The larger the risk, the more likely to fail so you naturally pick the safe options and they don't exist in football. It strikes me as the sort of thing gamblers do and I'm not a gambler.

I'm thinking about where I can get an edge on the odds and the only thing I can think of is betting exclusively on Leicester City. I know them better than the bookies. If I can remove sentiment and just use my knowledge, I should have an edge.

Therefore, in September, my bets will be exclusively on City matches. I will do a combination of different sort of bets designed to spread my risk and widen the opportunity for me to know more than the odds makers. I'll place about £25 on each match across about five different things. Any thoughts on this proposal?
I guess you stopped the idiot betting. Either that or it's so shambolic that you're too embarrassed to share it with us.
 
I guess you stopped the idiot betting. Either that or it's so shambolic that you're too embarrassed to share it with us.

Thanks for asking Blaarev. I opted against further updates as I couldn't imagine anyone being interested. I'm not embarrassed to admit that I am proving to be pretty poor at this. I have become convinced that football betting for both entertainment and a return on investment is pretty impossible to achieve consistently. You can either bet to lose or study and bet on very marginal odds and neither of those are for me.

As I deposited a significant amount of poker winnings into an account, I've been using it to play around with different bets. After some weeks, I settled on the wincast and scorecast bets. If ever Huth scores the first goal in a 2-1 win (275/1 for Saturday) or scores any time and we win (40/1), I will be rather pleased.

One day it will happen and I just hope I've remembered to place the bet when it does!!
 
Dont count on it, I bet Wasil to score 1st goal every game last season :(
 
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