Points Tracker 2015/16

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In order to stop staring at the league table, I've created my own spread sheet.

I've created four scenarios:
  1. Repeating form over remaining matches as just completed
  2. Repeating average season form over remaining matches
  3. Repeating form against same opponents from earlier in the season
  4. Predictions of remaining fixtures*
* As the Prediction League suggests, I'm shocking at this. However, I have meddled with my results by adding some science, some averaging based on win rates, draw rates, points averages, etc.

I've then equally weighted the four scenarios to give an average expectation of what will happen.

And it's quite interesting.

Firstly, we've already got enough points to finish fifth. Man Utd and Liverpool both finish with 61 points.

There is a final day thriller between Arsenal, Man City and West Ham for the two remaining Champions League places. West Ham blow it with a final day defeat at Stoke.

Spurs never get any closer to us than they currently are and finish with a respectable 73 points. Some 5 points clear of the hated rivals Arsenal in 3rd.

We win it with 80 points. We cruise it in fact. Even my nightmare scenario where our bottle goes and we win one of our last 6 games still has us winning it by scrambling a draw at home to Everton. In no scenario does it get as far as the last game.

This is of course mere conjecture and statistics prove nothing. Which means this is an entirely pointless post. Except it made me panic a little less about the coming weeks for an hour.
 
Four more wins and a drawn will be enough. I don't see Spurs winning another 18 points, which they'd need to pip us on goal difference in that scenario. I think we will win the league and I don't think it will go to the last day. It even be wrapped up before Everton.
 
In order to stop staring at the league table, I've created my own spread sheet.

I've created four scenarios:
  1. Repeating form over remaining matches as just completed
  2. Repeating average season form over remaining matches
  3. Repeating form against same opponents from earlier in the season
  4. Predictions of remaining fixtures*
* As the Prediction League suggests, I'm shocking at this. However, I have meddled with my results by adding some science, some averaging based on win rates, draw rates, points averages, etc.

I've then equally weighted the four scenarios to give an average expectation of what will happen.

And it's quite interesting.

Firstly, we've already got enough points to finish fifth. Man Utd and Liverpool both finish with 61 points.

There is a final day thriller between Arsenal, Man City and West Ham for the two remaining Champions League places. West Ham blow it with a final day defeat at Stoke.

Spurs never get any closer to us than they currently are and finish with a respectable 73 points. Some 5 points clear of the hated rivals Arsenal in 3rd.

We win it with 80 points. We cruise it in fact. Even my nightmare scenario where our bottle goes and we win one of our last 6 games still has us winning it by scrambling a draw at home to Everton. In no scenario does it get as far as the last game.

This is of course mere conjecture and statistics prove nothing. Which means this is an entirely pointless post. Except it made me panic a little less about the coming weeks for an hour.

Share it then....
 
To match the first half results against the last eight teams we play we will need to win six and draw two.

The draws in the first half of the season were against Southampton and Man U.

I suspect the results won't fall in line with the first half of the season results.

Nice if it did though as we would end up with 83 points.
 
Any idea about when the May TV games will be announced?
 
Game - singular in the weekend sense as they are not allowed to screen any of the last round of matches at differing times.
 
I suspect that BT will have a couple and Sky will have more than one via the red button or on different channels.
 
I'm sure it will be moved for TV. But there are TV matches on Saturday and Monday too.
Don't they want a potential title decider on a Sunday though? Seems to me that's a good time for build-up, viewing figures etc. Also, based on April's fixtures. But I don't know how they're reasoning.
 
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Championship

P Pld Pts
1Leeds Utd3882
2Leicester3882
3Ipswich3881
4Southampton3774
5West Brom3967
6Norwich City3962
7Hull City3859
8Coventry City3858
9Preston 3857
10Middlesbro3955
11Cardiff City3954
12Bristol City3950
13Sunderland3949
14Watford3848
15Swansea City3947
16Millwall3944
17Plymouth 3942
18Blackburn 3842
19Stoke City3942
20QPR3941
21Birmingham3940
22Huddersfield3940
23Sheffield W3939
24Rotherham Utd3921

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