Draw system after round 11 (Leicester draw finally!)

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Joe_Fox

Joe_Fox

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As I mentioned in this post the draws system is working ok.
I have attached a spreadsheet to show how it's going.

View attachment draw system.xls - FEAST YOUR EYES UPON THIS BEAST! :icon_razz

I went into profit for the first time after round 9 of matches, then dipped into a heavy loss after round 10 but super Leicester's draw has tipped into healthy profit. I could stop now with $1238 profit but that would be the act of a pussy so onwards we go. A $4096 bet placed on the draw at Peterborough tonight has been placed - honest.

Based on my assumptions, if Peterborough draw tonight, all 24 teams will have drawn and I will have netted a tidy sum of $11478 dollars (at least - remember, my average odds of a draw is 5/2 - realistically it's always at least this).

I have punched in a draw for Peterborough tonight to show you the remarkable amount of profit ($11478!!!!).

I urge someone to pick apart my spreadsheet and check it for accuracy. I think it's spot on but obviously a second eye over it would be terrific.

Any way, a draw tonight and the milky bars are on me. If not, I guess I better dust off the stocking and suspenders. :icon_eek:

Joe_Fox
 
Ha ha, cheers mate.
 
Some comments, although I'm not sure why I got sucked in to looking at this:

1. Whilst an interesting experiment, this is clearly not an actual bet going on. While 5/2 may be about correct for the average odds on a draw, it is certainly not the case for all draws. Indeed, had you actually put $2,048 on Leicester to draw this weekend, you would be looking at a much nicer profit than $5,120. Regardless, it remains an interesting experiment.

2. I agree that the system will work (i.e. will result in a profit in the end), but have two significant caveats:

(a) You are likely to need significant amounts of capital to make it work. Even in this experiement (which looks like a fairly normal set of results), you are required to find $2,858 of capital ($4,096 minus previous profit of $1,238) tonight, with no gaurantee of profit at the end of it. If Peterborough went on to not draw even just three more games after tonight, you're talking about needing to find $125,738 to keep it going to the next game. It doesn't need a particularly freakish set of results to beat even the wealthiest gambler.

(b) This is no different to any other "back the favourite" strategy. Whether it be backing the favourite of every horse race, or continually backing red or black on a roulette table, or continually backing any individual football team to win their next game, if you have a system that will definitely come true in the end (as all of these examples would), as long as you get your stakes correct, then you will make a profit in the end, but may have to find significant capital in the interim period.

The fact is that many systems will definitely result in a profit in the end, but those that do will often require a lot of capital, and may not yield a great return on capital at their end (due to investment required and time taken to derive a profit). I don't think that this particular system is any better or worse than many thousands of others. Of course it's possible to beat the bookie, as it is to beat any financial market, but you only do so by (a) being better than them, or (b) being luckier than them. Both are possible.

Sorry to piss on your chips...
 
Doggie_muz said:
(b) This is no different to any other "back the favourite" strategy.
Click to expand...

It's a virtual copy of this strategy. Nothing revolutionary or special. Bookies are rather acute to the usage of this strategy. If they sense it being used online at one bookmaker, they often begin to install bet maximums. For a punter to use it well, they have to pick the best odds available on every event. This means looking at 10 plus bookmakers and keep a close eye on the markets going up and now before the event.
 
Doggie_muz said:
The fact is that there are no systems that will definitely result in a profit in the end. They're all doomed to failure because taking money from gullible people is what bookies do for a living, and they're very good at it.

Sorry to piss on your chips...
Click to expand...

Fixed that for you Doggie
 
Last edited:
It's a similar system to a roulette one I was shown 20 years ago.
Basically, you put a nominal amount on red, if you win, you pouch it, if you lose, you double your bet until you reclaim your stake, and then begin again. I have however, seen a run of 10 of the same colour which means even a £2 bet requires a poke of over £2k to keep you in the game turning over your £2 wins.
It also needs a lot of patience.
 
RHYDAL said:
It's a similar system to a roulette one I was shown 20 years ago.
Basically, you put a nominal amount on red, if you win, you pouch it, if you lose, you double your bet until you reclaim your stake, and then begin again. I have however, seen a run of 10 of the same colour which means even a £2 bet requires a poke of over £2k to keep you in the game turning over your £2 wins.
It also needs a lot of patience.
Click to expand...

It is also falls on its arse if zero or double zero lands and you're only ever chasing the money you're already after losing, you're winning ****all even if it works
 
Macky said:
It is also falls on its arse if zero or double zero lands and you're only ever chasing the money you're already after losing, you're winning ****all even if it works
Click to expand...
Zero is treated as a black. Double zero only figures on a cross Irish Sea ferry or similar.
It does work, but a lack of excitement kind of dulls the whole gambling experience.
 
Did Peterborough draw tonight?
 
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Roxanne
 
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