FA Cup 2022/23

[Brown Nose]

Man United have had 10 successive home draws in domestic cups.

The odds of this are 1,024/1

 

[jb5000]

Man United have had 10 successive home draws in domestic cups.

The odds of this are 1,024/1

730ish clubs entered the FA cup this year, so the odds of this happening to a team are a lot less remote - it, is of course, funny that it should happen to that particualr one though.

 

[Blue Maniac]

730ish clubs entered the FA cup this year, so the odds of this happening to a team are a lot less remote - it, is of course, funny that it should happen to that particualr one though.

I’m trying to figure out how the odds of any team getting ten consecutive home draws is anything but 2^10. Surely the probability of any sequence of ten 1-in-2 outcomes is the same?

 

[Jeff]

I’m trying to figure out how the odds of any team getting ten consecutive home draws is anything but 2^10. Surely the probability of any sequence of ten 1-in-2 outcomes is the same?

It is. But with so many teams in the competition, there's a good chance that one of them will have that kind of run. It just happens that on this occasion, the team on that run is Man U. If it was Hartlepool no one would pay any attention to it.

 

[Jeff]

It is. But with so many teams in the competition, there's a good chance that one of them will have that kind of run. It just happens that on this occasion, the team on that run is Man U. If it was Hartlepool no one would pay any attention to it.

 

[jb5000]

It is. But with so many teams in the competition, there's a good chance that one of them will have that kind of run. It just happens that on this occasion, the team on that run is Man U. If it was Hartlepool no one would pay any attention to it.

That's right - for any one club the probability is 1/2^10, which is 1/1024 - pretty thin.
So, the probability of it not happening to a particular club is 1023/1024.
The probability of none of the 730 clubs who enter the cup not having had that sequence in their last ten draws is (1023/1024)^730, which works out as just a smidgeon above 49%
So, after any given draw it's a close to 50/50 as you'll get that you can say "a club has had ten successive home draws".

 

[Blue Maniac]

That's right - for any one club the probability is 1/2^10, which is 1/1024 - pretty thin.
So, the probability of it not happening to a particular club is 1023/1024.
The probability of none of the 730 clubs who enter the cup not having had that sequence in their last ten draws is (1023/1024)^730, which works out as just a smidgeon above 49%
So, after any given draw it's a close to 50/50 as you'll get that you can say "a club has had ten successive home draws".

Fantastic stats work, thank you

 

[Brown Nose]

That's right - for any one club the probability is 1/2^10, which is 1/1024 - pretty thin.
So, the probability of it not happening to a particular club is 1023/1024.
The probability of none of the 730 clubs who enter the cup not having had that sequence in their last ten draws is (1023/1024)^730, which works out as just a smidgeon above 49%
So, after any given draw it's a close to 50/50 as you'll get that you can say "a club has had ten successive home draws".

What are the odds of the 'lucky' club also generating the highest income from each home game and gets the highest viewing figures of all 730 sides?

 

[fox58]

What are the odds of the 'lucky' club also generating the highest income from each home game and gets the highest viewing figures of all 730 sides?

I we talking about warm balls here

 

[jb5000]

What are the odds of the 'lucky' club also generating the highest income from each home game and gets the highest viewing figures of all 730 sides?

This doesn't get noticed as most teams entering the Cup are barely known outside of their villages. Only 20 clubs in the English leagues get spoken about in the mass media since football was invented in 1993, the probability of this happening to one of those clubs is 1-(1023/1024)^20, about 2%

The chances of this happening to a member of the big five (and Spurs), at which point fans of the other four clubs (and Spurs) start wibbling about the temperature of their balls, is 1-(1023/1024)^6, about half of one percent

 

[jb5000]

The chances of this happening to a member of the big five (and Spurs), at which point fans of the other four clubs (and Spurs) start wibbling about the temperature of their balls, is 1-(1023/1024)^6, about half of one percent

Another thought on all this probability, then I promise to shut up - there's been a big six (with revolving membership) pretty much all the time in the history of organised english football. Across the 150 year history of the Cup the chances that one of them would go on such a run of draws is 1-((1023/1024)^6)^150, and that's about 58.5%. So, while we might call ourselves lucky to be living through this sequence, it's actually quite likely that something like this would happen during the Cup's history to date.

 

[Rich B]

Man Utd are claiming a redraw should be made because they didn't get Grimsby at home

 

[TornadoShaunUK]

What a great chance Brendan ****ed up this year again.....

 

[homer]

Cracking game that one

Blackburn did us a massive favour - SheffU would have ****ing battered us

 

[homer]

Who would possibly have believed that ManYoo and Man Siddeh would have avoided each other in the semi finals……

 

[TornadoShaunUK]

Things are really going to shit for Fulham here in the last 20 mins...

 

[homer]

Things are really going to shit for Fulham here in the last 20 mins...

Going to shit for us as well, as they’ll now have players missing for their matches against Bournemouth, Everton and West Ham….

 

[Miles Away]

Going to shit for us as well, as they’ll now have players missing for their matches against Bournemouth, Everton and West Ham….

Imagine Mitrovic will be missing for a good chunk of the rest of the season.

They are probably the perfect team to play now. Missing key players and **** all to play for.

 

[Blue Maniac]

Imagine Mitrovic will be missing for a good chunk of the rest of the season.

They are probably the perfect team to play now. Missing key players and **** all to play for.

Nah, **** the suspensions. They have seven of the bottom nine to play, they should be aiming for Europe regardless.