Our PL season is now 7 games in - what's going on?

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Brown Nose

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Two wins fortunately gained against the run of play. Two draws fortunately achieved against the run of play. Three defeats, two of which were well deserved and one was unlucky (Brighton).

That leaves us 13th, 5 points clear of the relegation zone and 6 points away from our finishing position in the last two years. All in all, it's a bit shit.

We're almost exclusively playing a back four (630/659 mins). Schmeichel is a constant. His performances have been okay but his passing has been terrible. The other defensive constant is Soyuncu. He's played every minute and has looked part okay and part a mess. Vestergaard started promisingly but he's demonstrated his limitations recently. He cannot be isolated or exposed for pace. He is a lump who can pass. He's a perfectly okay fourth choice central defender. Our support acts are Amartey (not good enough) and Evans (not fit enough). We need Evans fit soon as it is obvious that he needs to be alongside Soyuncu. We badly miss Fofana.

At full back, we have a confused mess. On the right we've swapped between Ricardo and Castagne. At the beginning of the season, Ricardo looked great and Castagne looked unfit. Now it's the other way around. On the left, Bertrand started pre-season looking excellent and then got Covid. Since then, he's looked like an old man in a charity match. Thomas isn't good enough to be anything other than a back up. We badly miss Justin.

Summarising our defensive play requires an honest assessment of our ability to play out from the back. Without Evans, Fofana and Ricardo in form, we can't do it.

You'd think that central midfield would be easy - Ndidi and Tielemans. We know that pairing works and they've been played together most often. However, they are not playing as a two alongside one another. They are playing one deep, one more advanced. Often with a third midfielder in there just to add to the confusion. Now Ndidi is out and we have the shambolic situation of having loads of midfielders but none of them seem to be trusted to play. We badly need Ndidi back quickly.

In the creative roles, the positive is Lookman. He's better than expected so far although he is yet to score or assist. And there he isn't alone. Albrighton is the only creative player that has scored in seven matches. Barnes has one assist and is the only one to do that from this area of the pitch too. This is a horrendous mess. We have plenty of options, none of them seem fit or on form. The only other worthwhile point is how overplayed Maddison is - 7th most used player this season and no positive contribution in any of those appearances.

We then have three forwards. Vardy is doing great with a goal or assist every 89 mins. Iheanacho has been criminally underused and has a goal or assist every 82 mins. Daka has only 22 mins so far and looks miles short of the required standard at the moment. It's a no brainer to play the two in form forwards together every game. Anything other than this is madness.

So, when we play Man Utd in a couple of weeks, some things are clear. We have to play Vardy and Iheanacho up front. Lookman should also start (on the left!). Tielemans and Soyuncu and Schmeichel are obvious too. Castagne has earnt the right back slot. If Evans is fit, he has to play too. If not, we have no choice but to play Vestergaard. Ndidi is missing so we have no option but to play Soumare alongside (not ahead of) Tielemans. Left back and right midfield are our weakest positions just like they were last season, and possibly the season before that too. How we paper over those cracks will be key until certain players rediscover how to do football.

Schmeichel
Castagne Soyuncu Evans ?
? Soumare Tielemans
Iheanacho Vardy Lookman
 
We need a fully firing spine of Schmeichel, Evans, Ndidi, Tielemans and Vardy. If others (e.g. Maddison, Pereira and Barnes) can also find some form we should be ok.

However, at the minute it feels like we could end up in a relegation scrap.
 
FWIW, I don’t think Tielemans has been that bad. Vardy has done great, Schmeichel has made some great saves and kept us in a few games but his distribution is Stevie Wonder.

Evans is in trouble I think and will only play bits but N’didi has been inconsistent.
 
Off to see if there are any stats on how many times our playing out from the back has resulted in the opposition scoring. This is our Achilles heel we even manage to pass it backwards 40m from an attacking position which invariably results in us squandering possession in our final 3rd.
Rogers must become more direct until players return that can play possession football. We MUST continue to play upfront, and Rogers must resist going negative in the last 20 mins, removing Nacho was insane yesterday it invited pressure.
We have enough strength in depth to be fine this season however our form is very worrying
 
Given how many injuries we've had and how long term they all seem to be, I wonder who was behind that medical team revamp that saw Dave Rennie leave.

Meanwhile Matty James has played every game this season for Bristol City, where DR now leads the medical team.
 
There seems to be a lot of things that have been happening that have a big change in so much of the club, and not for the better it seems.

We also used to be the best in the division for being strong at the end of a game. Now we take the best players off with 20 mins left because they are tired/worn/needing an energy drink - even when there isn't another game in the next week.
 
Off to see if there are any stats on how many times our playing out from the back has resulted in the opposition scoring. This is our Achilles heel we even manage to pass it backwards 40m from an attacking position which invariably results in us squandering possession in our final 3rd.
Rogers must become more direct until players return that can play possession football. We MUST continue to play upfront, and Rogers must resist going negative in the last 20 mins, removing Nacho was insane yesterday it invited pressure.
We have enough strength in depth to be fine this season however our form is very worrying
Not so many teams play out from the back as much as we try to do. Arsenal rarely do it now. You need big players to win the ball when it is punted forward so it's no point us doing it.
 
Following the evidence now of the last 10 performances, I have decided to completely reset expectations for this season.

A top four challenge is simply absurd. I also cannot see a case for us challenging for the other euro places.

I'm confident that we'll improve at some stage because we have a lot of good players. However we are so far off the necessary standard that I'm inclined to revert to Ranieri's famous 40 point mantra first of all.

32 points to get and then let's see what everything looks like.
 
Two wins fortunately gained against the run of play. Two draws fortunately achieved against the run of play. Three defeats, two of which were well deserved and one was unlucky (Brighton).

That leaves us 13th, 5 points clear of the relegation zone and 6 points away from our finishing position in the last two years. All in all, it's a bit shit.

We're almost exclusively playing a back four (630/659 mins). Schmeichel is a constant. His performances have been okay but his passing has been terrible. The other defensive constant is Soyuncu. He's played every minute and has looked part okay and part a mess. Vestergaard started promisingly but he's demonstrated his limitations recently. He cannot be isolated or exposed for pace. He is a lump who can pass. He's a perfectly okay fourth choice central defender. Our support acts are Amartey (not good enough) and Evans (not fit enough). We need Evans fit soon as it is obvious that he needs to be alongside Soyuncu. We badly miss Fofana.

At full back, we have a confused mess. On the right we've swapped between Ricardo and Castagne. At the beginning of the season, Ricardo looked great and Castagne looked unfit. Now it's the other way around. On the left, Bertrand started pre-season looking excellent and then got Covid. Since then, he's looked like an old man in a charity match. Thomas isn't good enough to be in the casino until 3am AND play left-back for a PL team. We badly miss Justin.

Summarising our defensive play requires an honest assessment of our ability to play out from the back. Without Evans, Fofana and Ricardo in form, we can't do it.

You'd think that central midfield would be easy - Ndidi and Tielemans. We know that pairing works and they've been played together most often. However, they are not playing as a two alongside one another. They are playing one deep, one more advanced. Often with a third midfielder in there just to add to the confusion. Now Ndidi is out and we have the shambolic situation of having loads of midfielders but none of them seem to be trusted to play. We badly need Ndidi back quickly.

In the creative roles, the positive is Lookman. He's better than expected so far although he is yet to score or assist. And there he isn't alone. Albrighton is the only creative player that has scored in seven matches. Barnes has one assist and is the only one to do that from this area of the pitch too. This is a horrendous mess. We have plenty of options, none of them seem fit or on form. The only other worthwhile point is how overplayed Maddison is - 7th most used player this season and no positive contribution in any of those appearances.

We then have three forwards. Vardy is doing great with a goal or assist every 89 mins. Iheanacho has been criminally underused and has a goal or assist every 82 mins. Daka has only 22 mins so far and looks miles short of the required standard at the moment. It's a no brainer to play the two in form forwards together every game. Anything other than this is madness.

So, when we play Man Utd in a couple of weeks, some things are clear. We have to play Vardy and Iheanacho up front. Lookman should also start (on the left!). Tielemans and Soyuncu and Schmeichel are obvious too. Castagne has earnt the right back slot. If Evans is fit, he has to play too. If not, we have no choice but to play Vestergaard. Ndidi is missing so we have no option but to play Soumare alongside (not ahead of) Tielemans. Left back and right midfield are our weakest positions just like they were last season, and possibly the season before that too. How we paper over those cracks will be key until certain players rediscover how to do football.

Schmeichel
Castagne Soyuncu Evans ?
? Soumare Tielemans
Iheanacho Vardy Lookman
 
Following the evidence now of the last 10 performances, I have decided to completely reset expectations for this season.

A top four challenge is simply absurd. I also cannot see a case for us challenging for the other euro places.

I'm confident that we'll improve at some stage because we have a lot of good players. However we are so far off the necessary standard that I'm inclined to revert to Ranieri's famous 40 point mantra first of all.

32 points to get and then let's see what everything looks like.
Spot on
 
Not so many teams play out from the back as much as we try to do. Arsenal rarely do it now. You need big players to win the ball when it is punted forward so it's no point us doing it.
Not necessarily punting it forward more direct into the channels you can see our wingers in acres of space and we take 5 passes to get it to them when one will do, perfect example was the ball in behind lookman for Palaces first goal.

I am all for possession but most of ours is passed back into our half mostly just outside our 18 yard box. We have gone from a team that pressed other side's and moved the ball quickly, into a team that plays alot like Puel.
 
Defence is the issue. There's nothing solid there at the moment. At least two of the back line have howlers in any given match. Thank **** Vardy is firing!
 
On the positive side, we've been playing absolutely wank and are still 13th in the league for xG and 14th for xGC. There's some absolute shit in this league, and no-one should be genuinely worried about relegation.
 
I think top 4 was always unrealistic given we've just failed it two seasons in a row when at our best and given what Chelsea, and both Manchester clubs did over the summer. It's still early days and the damage isn't irreparable yet, a single win puts us on 11 points and on the cusp of that top 6 again. However performances have been poor, particularly defensively.
 
Anyone who thought we would be pushing top 4 this season was deluded anyway.

Anyone who thinks the current position or performances are acceptable are also deluded.
 
Performances have been crap but if we had won at Brighton, which could have happened without some bizarre VAR calls, nobody would be wetting the bed right now.
 
Our first half performance against Villarreal with a back four of Ricardo, Fofana, Soyuncu and Bertrand made me feel very positive about our top four chances. The shape and understanding was magnificent.

Add to that what seemed like smart squad additions and I had high hopes. This was smashed by the Fofana injury and need to spend on Vestergaard rather than a right winger.

If our players coming back from injuries (Barnes, Maddison, Ricardo) had all hit the ground running, we'd have been okay. But they've played like they've had their talent sucked out of them.

Even if BR had swallowed his pride a bit earlier and partnered Vardy and Iheanacho a few matches ago, we'd have more points.

Bad luck, combined with dumbass player management and decision making has screwed us. BR really has to go back to basics and play a much more defence first style with two strikers until the crocked and the crap start to reappear.
 
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