Some stats on our season

[Brown Nose]

We conceded 11 penaties this season in the PL, which is the highest of any side. I can remember the below but I've missed one? It is worth pointing out that we conceded penalties in both the home and away games against Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd. What does that tell us? I think it suggests that we bottle it when the pressure is on in our box. If you look at the four teams that finished above us, they conceded 9 between them all season.

Man Utd (H) conceded 1; Bournemouth (A) conceded 1; Everton (A) conceded 1; Brighton (H) saved; Man City (H) saved; West Ham (H) conceded 1; Liverpool (H) conceded 1; Man City (A) conceded 1; Liverpool (A) conceded 1; Man Utd (A) conceded 1

We also had 3 own goals which is equal highest of any side.

We were a very nice team. Only Liverpool had fewer bookings. However, we made more tackles than any other side.

Vardy was top scorer of course, but he was 15 clear of the next best - Perez with 8. It is also interesting that Barnes and Maddison had pretty much the same number of shots per 90 mins as Vardy but they were very ineffective in comparison.

Barnes had our best record for assists with 8. It is notable that Gray and Chilwell got the same number of assists as Maddison (3).

We were a team that started slowly. Only 4 goals all season in the first 15 mins compared to 19 in the last 15.

We spent two thirds of the season playing the 4-1-4-1 formation (2267/3420 mins). 19% of the season was spent with a back three that became our 'go to' formation towards the end of the season.

There are loads more but that will do for now.

 

[City Fan]

There are loads more but that will do for now.

Here’s a couple more:

First 16 matches : 2.38 points per game.
Last 22 matches: 1.09 points per game

Nigel Pearson won more points for Watford than Brendan did for Leicester during Nigel’s spell.

 

[Miles Away]

That penalty statistic is ****ing crazy.

 

[Rock Fox]

more stats facts:

• we are the top midlands side
• ahead of 'big clubs' Arsenal and Spurs
• pretty close to Man Utd / Chelsea points total
• second highest PL points total
• First time a leicester player wins the PL golden boot
• we bottled it.

 

[FOX Franks]

I thought this was intersting - Dennis Praet hasn't started (and finished) a single game for us.
It's very easy to forget he got three assists in the earlier part of the season. I think he and Tielemans together may be an important combination in future.

 

[FOX Franks]

We conceded 11 penaties this season in the PL, which is the highest of any side. I can remember the below but I've missed one? It is worth pointing out that we conceded penalties in both the home and away games against Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd. What does that tell us? I think it suggests that we bottle it when the pressure is on in our box. If you look at the four teams that finished above us, they conceded 9 between them all season.

Man Utd (H) conceded 1; Bournemouth (A) conceded 1; Everton (A) conceded 1; Brighton (H) saved; Man City (H) saved; West Ham (H) conceded 1; Liverpool (H) conceded 1; Man City (A) conceded 1; Liverpool (A) conceded 1; Man Utd (A) conceded 1

We also had 3 own goals which is equal highest of any side.

We were a very nice team. Only Liverpool had fewer bookings. However, we made more tackles than any other side.

Vardy was top scorer of course, but he was 15 clear of the next best - Perez with 8. It is also interesting that Barnes and Maddison had pretty much the same number of shots per 90 mins as Vardy but they were very ineffective in comparison.

Barnes had our best record for assists with 8. It is notable that Gray and Chilwell got the same number of assists as Maddison (3).

We were a team that started slowly. Only 4 goals all season in the first 15 mins compared to 19 in the last 15.

We spent two thirds of the season playing the 4-1-4-1 formation (2267/3420 mins). 19% of the season was spent with a back three that became our 'go to' formation towards the end of the season.

There are loads more but that will do for now.

Pretty obvious that 4-1-4-1 is our best formation isn't it

 

[homer]

Pretty obvious that 4-1-4-1 is our best formation isn't it

Shame we didn’t use it any of the restart games

 

[pork pie fox]

Shame we didn’t use it any of the restart games

Yep

 

[Brown Nose]

The big six are called the big six because they usually finish in the top six and they have by far the biggest budgets in the PL. Since we got promoted, we've had six seasons in the PL. In;

2014/15 - the top six were the big six
2015/16 - Leicester (winners) and Southampton (6th) finished in the top six - Chelsea and Liverpool didn't
2016/17 - the top six were the big six
2017/18 - the top six were the big six
2018/19 - the top six were the big six
2019/20 - Leicester (5th) were the only non big six side in the top six (Arsenal missed out)

Prior to this, Everton finished 5th in 2014 and 6th in 2013. Newcastle finished 5th in 2012. The remaining places were all taken up by the big six.

So in the last 10 seasons, top six finishes by team are as follows:

Man City & Spurs = 10
Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea = 9
Liverpool = 7
Leicester & Everton = 2
Southampton = 1
Newcastle = 1

That top six is an incredibly closed shop for us to have invaded twice in six seasons. Consider the revenue / wage costs of the top six compared to us from the 2019 accounts:

Man Utd = £627m / £352m
Man City = £538m / £315m
Liverpool = £533m / £310m
Spurs = £459m / £179m
Chelsea = £452m / £314m
Arsenal = £393m / £235m
Leicester = £179m / £150m

 

[Miles Away]

Didn’t just invade, at one point we conquered.

 

[City Fan]

The big six are called the big six because they usually finish in the top six and they have by far the biggest budgets in the PL. Since we got promoted, we've had six seasons in the PL. In;

2014/15 - the top six were the big six
2015/16 - Leicester (winners) and Southampton (6th) finished in the top six - Chelsea and Liverpool didn't
2016/17 - the top six were the big six
2017/18 - the top six were the big six
2018/19 - the top six were the big six
2019/20 - Leicester (5th) were the only non big six side in the top six (Arsenal missed out)

Prior to this, Everton finished 5th in 2014 and 6th in 2013. Newcastle finished 5th in 2012. The remaining places were all taken up by the big six.

So in the last 10 seasons, top six finishes by team are as follows:

Man City & Spurs = 10
Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea = 9
Liverpool = 7
Leicester & Everton = 2
Southampton = 1
Newcastle = 1

That top six is an incredibly closed shop for us to have invaded twice in six seasons. Consider the revenue / wage costs of the top six compared to us from the 2019 accounts:

Man Utd = £627m / £352m
Man City = £538m / £315m
Liverpool = £533m / £310m
Spurs = £459m / £179m
Chelsea = £452m / £314m
Arsenal = £393m / £235m
Leicester = £179m / £150m

I won’t mention who presided over 1.5 out of the 3 seasons that Liverpool didn’t finish in the top 6...

 

[FOX Franks]

The big six are called the big six because they usually finish in the top six and they have by far the biggest budgets in the PL. Since we got promoted, we've had six seasons in the PL. In;

2014/15 - the top six were the big six
2015/16 - Leicester (winners) and Southampton (6th) finished in the top six - Chelsea and Liverpool didn't
2016/17 - the top six were the big six
2017/18 - the top six were the big six
2018/19 - the top six were the big six
2019/20 - Leicester (5th) were the only non big six side in the top six (Arsenal missed out)

Prior to this, Everton finished 5th in 2014 and 6th in 2013. Newcastle finished 5th in 2012. The remaining places were all taken up by the big six.

So in the last 10 seasons, top six finishes by team are as follows:

Man City & Spurs = 10
Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea = 9
Liverpool = 7
Leicester & Everton = 2
Southampton = 1
Newcastle = 1

That top six is an incredibly closed shop for us to have invaded twice in six seasons. Consider the revenue / wage costs of the top six compared to us from the 2019 accounts:

Man Utd = £627m / £352m
Man City = £538m / £315m
Liverpool = £533m / £310m
Spurs = £459m / £179m
Chelsea = £452m / £314m
Arsenal = £393m / £235m
Leicester = £179m / £150m

Interesting stats BN. What’s the conclusion?

 

[Micky]

Interesting stats BN. What’s the conclusion?

We are on the verge....

 

[Brown Nose]

Interesting stats BN. What’s the conclusion?

My conclusion is that we are experiencing a period of success that we couldn't have anticipated and we cannot sustain.

We cannot ever realistically compete in the top half of the PL. The gap is far too wide. There is nothing we can do to bridge it significantly.

Our opportunity here is to pull away from other clubs of similar stature. In the 'second' level of clubs, you have Everton, Villa, Newcastle, West Ham. They all have advantages over us with bigger stadiums and superior revenue opportunties. We are competing with these clubs because we are run better. However, our only chance to be at this level consistently in the future is to grow. The stadium, the training ground, the consecutive seasons in the PL.

In the all time PL table, the big six and the other four sides named above are the top ten. The gap to the 11th placed club (Southampton) is a big one. We're 14th.

Now that Leeds are back in the PL, they become the 11th biggest side. We're probably 12th based on our recent achievements.

So finishing in the top six twice in five seasons is remarkable. Finishing 5th this year is remarkable. Finishing top half in four of the last five seasons is remarkable consistency. But it cannot last. We're not big enough for it to last.

 

[Brown Nose]

This chart from the Athletic shows that up until the Villa away game in December, we were achieving results that were very unusual and absolutely unsustainable. This was mostly due to the exceptional run of finishing from Vardy.

Up to and including that Villa game, Vardy scored 16 league goals in 17 games. In the next 19 PL games, he scored 7 times.

Without that run from Vardy, we would be a mid table side. I think this illustrates just what a difference the form of our one key player makes. An on form Vardy is the only thing that makes City special.

 

[Orifice]

It is a little worrying that we're only good because of one player.
We still managed ok when Vardy was out but I feel that the next 5 seasons we will be mid table area.

 

[camberwell fox]

Great stats BN, very interesting, thank you.

 

[camberwell fox]

Although I see and understand your reasoning, it is all based on cash. Our current model (if I understand it correctly) is to buy players each season (and we do appear to be spending more on individual players recently) and develop them to the point where we can sell one a season at (£60-90 million) and then reinvest this without risk.

This IS the way to progress as proven by what we have achieved with nominal financial outlay (over and above self generation).

I don’t want us to spend £90 million on a player as it isn’t sustainable.

What we rely on is exceptional recruitment and overall we have done well. For every two failures we have one success and so long as the failures negative £££ isn’t breaking the model. We must invest incredibly wisely and hopefully with 2-3 more seasons of this approach we may be in a position where we don’t have to sell at Champions League income would fill the void of selling a player therefore allowing us to invest rather than sell and invest.

If we gradually increase our wages in line with growth then perhaps in 4-5 seasons we can be firmly established in the top six and sometimes getting in the top 4.

Our recruitment post 2015/16 season was poor but we have learnt from it.

What is to say that in 4-5 years that we won’t have a 65,000 stadium be creating significant sponsorship and merchandise revenue allowing and underpinning our growth.

I believe in our plan and paying our manager top dollar I believe underpins this too.

The future is incredibly exciting.

 

[Brown Nose]

You're right that our model depends on us getting recruitment right most of the time. If we didn't do this, we'd soon fall away.

Just like our performances against xG last season, I'd argue that our current rate of success in recruiting is now reverting to average. We benefitted massively from an exceptional leader of recruitment in Steve Walsh. He did some amazing deals for this club. Ever since he left, our rate of success in transfers has been much more mediocre. Since Walsh left, from memory, these are the main signings:

Zieler, Mendy, Hernandez, Musa, Kapustka, Slimani, Silva, Maguire, Iborra, Jackupovic, Iheanacho, Benkovic, Soyuncu, Ward, Ghezzal, Diabate, Maddison, Ricardo, Evans, Praet, Tielemans, Justin, Perez

Of these 23 players, I've highlighted the 6 that are clear successes and we know that one of those players (Maguire) was recommended by Walsh.

There are at least 11 that are clear failures. The rest are okay or not yet proven. This rate of success is about average but that's my point. We've become an average side at recruiting players now, as opposed to an exceptional one when Steve Walsh was in charge.

So if we sign 6 players this summer, expect no more than two of them to be successful. Three will probably fail and one will be okay. Now if we sell one established player and add two successful new ones, that works but we have to also acknowledge that time is catching up on our old guard so that rate isn't sustainable either.

Six key members of our first team squad (most of them signed by Walsh) are coming to the end of their effective life at the club (Schmeichel, Evans, Vardy, Morgan, Alrighton, Fuchs).

Our finances are pretty weak. Our wage to revenue is very high, quite dangerously high. There is no way that should remain which is the main reason why I've been advocating a major reduction in the size of the professional squad and have had an issue with the contract we gave to BR and his team. We have massive off field infrastructure plans which I just can't see being affordable unless we take a hit by selling more assets.

All this leads me to believe that we are at a tipping point over the next 12 months. We either do some amazing recruitment and go on to continue to challenge in the top half of the PL or we revert back to a mid table side that will eventually get caught in a relegation battle and lose it.

 

[Feriol]

Vardy is immensely important to our team no doubt, I think the same can be said of most teams lead striker, but I think our defense deserves a lot of praise too, particularly for our early season form.

Midfield is the weak spot IMO. no doubt we have some talented players and potential, but we need more consistency in there if we are to push on. Some more creativity from wide, and and experienced player with some leadership qualities in the middle should get us to the next level, then we need to strengthen the depth of the squad.