Post Match Watford 1 Leicester 5

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fitz

Well-Known Member
This defending from set pieces, corners in particular, is beyond a ****ing joke.

We'll be able to pencil in 50 seconds of training on corners when the players are on holiday.
 

londonfox

Well-Known Member
I find him quite refreshing and funny compared to most of the presenters on radio /tv in the States.
He’s part of the broadcast team for the Chicago Fire and I’ve always found him to be perfectly fine.
 

Graz

Well-Known Member
The Vardy header from today had an xG of 0.01 which means that from the position on the pitch, with the ball being received in that way, his chance of scoring was extremely unlikely. Of all previous situations recorded, 99% of them don't result in a goal.

What made it happen is the absolute clown of a keeper flying out of his goal and the excellent instinct and composure of Vardy. The point being that both of these factors are not normal. The decision from the keeper was extremely unusual. The finish in the circumstances was exceptional.

If you want, you can just say that Vardy took it well and move on. It's a goal so who cares? However, if you do that, you are being lulled into a false sense of security because luck like facing Foster in that mood doesn't continue. A couple of months ago, I warned that our underlying stats were poor but we were getting results against the odds so many thought things were fine. Predictably, the luck ran out and we went on a terrible run.

Vardy is an xG monster. Every season he makes more of his opportunities than the average player in his situations. That's what makes him special. Every season we've had Vardy scoring regularly, we've probably finished about six places above where we would finish with an 'ordinary' striker. It is why our win percentage with Vardy in the side is so much higher than it is without him.

This season Vardy 'should' have scored 9 PL goals from his chances but he's got 14. In contrast, Kane should have scored 20 and he has 16. So, although on paper, Kane has two more goals this season than Vardy, it is Vardy who has been easily the better goalscorer. Especially if you take penalties out of the equation.

Vardy is 22nd in the PL on xG this season sitting just one place above Josh King. Daka (63rd) and Iheanacho (93rd) are way down the list as players that don't exceed their xG but they also don't underachieve. They get about the right number of goals.

That's the challenge we face in a future without Vardy.

I see some value in xG, but might have to join in telling BN how useless it is...

Not because I don't buy it, but because the way the length of the reply grows everytime someone dismisses it, if a few more people join in telling him it's a load of crap, he'll be writing War and Peace by August. (Or should that be xW and xP?)
 

doolochfox

Active Member
I'm certain there is value in using xG. I'd assume our recruiting takes it into account. BN you seem to suggest that we will return to the average and we are over achieving, but surely that's one area that we could exploit. Do you purchase a striker that is performing below their xG, or one that's exceeding it? I'd have thought that if you are exceeding the metric you are a better than average finisher.

Are the xGs the same through all European/ World leagues, or league dependent?
 

Joe_Fox

Well-Known Member
So hang on a minute. xG is expected God? I'm confused. I think I'll just keep looking at the more niche stats like goals scored.
 

FOX Franks

Well-Known Member
So hang on a minute. xG is expected God? I'm confused. I think I'll just keep looking at the more niche stats like goals scored.
I agree with dooloch. If strikers are scoring the same number of goals but the opportunities falling to them are different, then it can be the final deciding factor surely?
 

Joe_Fox

Well-Known Member
I'm pretty sure God is neither he nor she, nor anything at all for that matter.
 

big_mac4824

Well-Known Member
BR on Ward over Schmeichel:

"I have two number ones and Wardy has been with us all over the world supporting Kasper. I planned to play Ward on Wednesday but he felt his knee so we didn't risk it. Kasper was aware of my plan to show that I have trust in both of them".
sounded like waffle
 

FOX Franks

Well-Known Member
BR on Ward over Schmeichel:

"I have two number ones and Wardy has been with us all over the world supporting Kasper. I planned to play Ward on Wednesday but he felt his knee so we didn't risk it. Kasper was aware of my plan to show that I have trust in both of them".
"I have two number ones" is absolute bollocks, Brendog.
 

Lako42

Well-Known Member
They are both international goalkeepers and No.1's for their respective nations.
But clearly not here, which is what he is talking about.
 

tedfoxxx

Well-Known Member
You sure have lived a full and interesting life, haven't you....
Yes that joke was in no way implied by me sharing that I knew the words to a song from Futurama.
 
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