Let's be fair to Mr Gove

[David Gwilliam]

Yes this is a title deliberately designed to provoke. My guess is that most people will give up at the end of paragraph 2 disgusted that I like Ken Clarke or Nigel Farage. In fact paragraph 3 is the important one - you might as well just read that and skip the rest.

I do not like Michael Gove and would no sooner spend an evening in a pub with him than I would the horrible Emily Thornberry; the ultimate nightmare would be an evening with Tim Farron (1) To be positive I think I would enjoy an evening with Ken Clarke Jess Phillips (2) or Nigel Farage (I like him though millions don't).(3)

However, Michael Gove most famous quote is "The people have had enough of experts" For this he has been unjustly vilified as though he was denigrating surgeons physicists biologists etc. In fact he was talking about the economy and his full point was
"I think the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong’

A surgeon may be able to predict the spread of a disease. An astronomer may be able to predict an eclipse. However, when it comes to predicting the economy experts are no better than astrologers. Marx was alive when the depression of 1873 took him by surprise as were Keynes and Hayek in 1929 and the economists of our own time in 2008.

It is not just economists. In 1992 the doyen of political scientists Professor Anthony King was certain Labour would win the election and dismissed the first result as an aberration. The experts got the 2015 UK election and 2016 referendum wrong. The experts were certain that Donald Trump stood no chance of winning in 2016.

The Economist is a fine magazine but in the summer of 1914 it made clear that the most important question facing the UK government was the Irish question.


My aim is not to glorify the lamentable Michael Gove but to point out that on his most famous quote he was right. Beware of any economist or anyone else who tries to predict the future.

(1) Has anyone else noticed that Tim Farron would be perfect casting for the Anthony Perkins role in any remake of Psycho?
(2) A grand gal - any woman who tells Diane Abbot to eff off gets my vote.
(3) I did try and pick someone from each party but could not think of a single current LibDem politician that I like.

 

[FIF]

"Expert" is simply a misnomer in these cases. The "experts" who claim who will win at elections are following surveys in which the respondents are not replying accurately. Keynes for example was a great economist but an economist is not a clairvoyant.

 

[pork pie fox]

The experts got the 2015 UK election and 2016 referendum wrong. The experts were certain that Donald Trump stood no chance of winning in 2016.

They should have asked me. I won money on getting all three of those right
I didn't want them to happen, but that isn't why I bet on them happening.

 

[Ike O'Noclassed]

They should have asked me. I won money on getting all three of those right
I didn't want them to happen, but that isn't why I bet on them happening.

It's abundantly clear that betting and financial markets are now routinely gamed in elections and no opinion poll is worth the pixels they are written on. Even good old Saarland got in on the act at the weekend. The experts are most definitely getting it right - the betting syndicates and hedge funds that is.

The 2015 election was the least surprising election result since the 1992 surprise, in both cases if I recall, the polls were mixed but those favouring a Labour victory were prominent, ignoring the screamingly obvious that this would have to come in spite of a Labour meltdown in Scotland.

I missed the chance of cashing in on the post-closing pre-result odds of about 16-1 against a leave victory - my abiding regret of that night, but I had a good wedge on the Donald as his odds were still long after the FBI intervention which helped to sink Hillary.

 

[SwedeFox]

It's abundantly clear that betting and financial markets are now routinely gamed in elections and no opinion poll is worth the pixels they are written on. Even good old Saarland got in on the act at the weekend. The experts are most definitely getting it right - the betting syndicates and hedge funds that is.

The 2015 election was the least surprising election result since the 1992 surprise, in both cases if I recall, the polls were mixed but those favouring a Labour victory were prominent, ignoring the screamingly obvious that this would have to come in spite of a Labour meltdown in Scotland.

I missed the chance of cashing in on the post-closing pre-result odds of about 16-1 against a leave victory - my abiding regret of that night, but I had a good wedge on the Donald as his odds were still long after the FBI intervention which helped to sink Hillary.

Where do you stand on Le Pen?

 

[Ike O'Noclassed]

Where do you stand on Le Pen?

Probably only worth a wager that she'll get considerably more in the first round than the 25% that she's polled consistently for months,

 

[FIF]

Probably only worth a wager that she'll get considerably more in the first round than the 25% that she's polled consistently for months,

That would surprise me. She has a core support of "haterz" who vote for her every time but there has been no sign that any other voters want to vote for her. I guess this year with Fillon completely stinking up (or having stinked up) his sure fire Presidential position, she could get some of the right wing voters choosing her as there is no-one else on the right in the running but there have been no signs of it.

If Hamon pulled out Melenchon could get a surprising percentage in the first round (maybe enough to get through) but Macron hasn't managed to mess up his position yet and seems to be growing in popularity.

I was concerned that LePen is being treated as a serious politician in the debate last week though. It's a slippery slope from there.

 

[Mawsley]

[All the fun of the fair]

...Marx was alive when the depression of 1873 took him by surprise...

I guess that had he been dead there'd have been a different response?