Some stats on our season

[camberwell fox]

You're right that our model depends on us getting recruitment right most of the time. If we didn't do this, we'd soon fall away.

Just like our performances against xG last season, I'd argue that our current rate of success in recruiting is now reverting to average. We benefitted massively from an exceptional leader of recruitment in Steve Walsh. He did some amazing deals for this club. Ever since he left, our rate of success in transfers has been much more mediocre. Since Walsh left, from memory, these are the main signings:

Zieler, Mendy, Hernandez, Musa, Kapustka, Slimani, Silva, Maguire, Iborra, Jackupovic, Iheanacho, Benkovic, Soyuncu, Ward, Ghezzal, Diabate, Maddison, Ricardo, Evans, Praet, Tielemans, Justin, Perez

Of these 23 players, I've highlighted the 6 that are clear successes and we know that one of those players (Maguire) was recommended by Walsh.

There are at least 11 that are clear failures. The rest are okay or not yet proven. This rate of success is about average but that's my point. We've become an average side at recruiting players now, as opposed to an exceptional one when Steve Walsh was in charge.

So if we sign 6 players this summer, expect no more than two of them to be successful. Three will probably fail and one will be okay. Now if we sell one established player and add two successful new ones, that works but we have to also acknowledge that time is catching up on our old guard so that rate isn't sustainable either.

Six key members of our first team squad (most of them signed by Walsh) are coming to the end of their effective life at the club (Schmeichel, Evans, Vardy, Morgan, Alrighton, Fuchs).

Our finances are pretty weak. Our wage to revenue is very high, quite dangerously high. There is no way that should remain which is the main reason why I've been advocating a major reduction in the size of the professional squad and have had an issue with the contract we gave to BR and his team. We have massive off field infrastructure plans which I just can't see being affordable unless we take a hit by selling more assets.

All this leads me to believe that we are at a tipping point over the next 12 months. We either do some amazing recruitment and go on to continue to challenge in the top half of the PL or we revert back to a mid table side that will eventually get caught in a relegation battle and lose it.

I take your point but it’s a bit far fetched to call Iheanacho, Benkovic, Praet, Justin and Perez failures.

Iheanacho looks much better under Rodgers
Benkovic, glad you can write him off without seeing him kick a ball in a blue shirt.
Praet, a very tidy player who could go one way or the other.
Justin - don’t be stupid.
Perez, see Justin.

There is also a grey area between superstar and skid mark you know?

 

[Jeff]

I take your point but it’s a bit far fetched to call Iheanacho, Benkovic, Praet, Justin and Perez failures.

He didn't call them failures.

 

[Brown Nose]

I take your point but it’s a bit far fetched to call Iheanacho, Benkovic, Praet, Justin and Perez failures.

Iheanacho looks much better under Rodgers
Benkovic, glad you can write him off without seeing him kick a ball in a blue shirt.
Praet, a very tidy player who could go one way or the other.
Justin - don’t be stupid.
Perez, see Justin.

There is also a grey area between superstar and skid mark you know?

Reread my post. You can find 11 failures without any of these names. I thought the 11 failures were so obvious that they didn't need to be named .

 

[camberwell fox]

Reread my post. You can find 11 failures without any of these names. I thought the 11 failures were so obvious that they didn't need to be named .

Clearly they did as I misread it. Apologies.

 

[camberwell fox]

You're right that our model depends on us getting recruitment right most of the time. If we didn't do this, we'd soon fall away.

Just like our performances against xG last season, I'd argue that our current rate of success in recruiting is now reverting to average. We benefitted massively from an exceptional leader of recruitment in Steve Walsh. He did some amazing deals for this club. Ever since he left, our rate of success in transfers has been much more mediocre. Since Walsh left, from memory, these are the main signings:

Zieler, Mendy, Hernandez, Musa, Kapustka, Slimani, Silva, Maguire, Iborra, Jackupovic, Iheanacho, Benkovic, Soyuncu, Ward, Ghezzal, Diabate, Maddison, Ricardo, Evans, Praet, Tielemans, Justin, Perez

Of these 23 players, I've highlighted the 6 that are clear successes and we know that one of those players (Maguire) was recommended by Walsh.

There are at least 11 that are clear failures. The rest are okay or not yet proven. This rate of success is about average but that's my point. We've become an average side at recruiting players now, as opposed to an exceptional one when Steve Walsh was in charge.

So if we sign 6 players this summer, expect no more than two of them to be successful. Three will probably fail and one will be okay. Now if we sell one established player and add two successful new ones, that works but we have to also acknowledge that time is catching up on our old guard so that rate isn't sustainable either.

Six key members of our first team squad (most of them signed by Walsh) are coming to the end of their effective life at the club (Schmeichel, Evans, Vardy, Morgan, Alrighton, Fuchs).

Our finances are pretty weak. Our wage to revenue is very high, quite dangerously high. There is no way that should remain which is the main reason why I've been advocating a major reduction in the size of the professional squad and have had an issue with the contract we gave to BR and his team. We have massive off field infrastructure plans which I just can't see being affordable unless we take a hit by selling more assets.

All this leads me to believe that we are at a tipping point over the next 12 months. We either do some amazing recruitment and go on to continue to challenge in the top half of the PL or we revert back to a mid table side that will eventually get caught in a relegation battle and lose it.

I disagree that our current recruitment is average.

How many (at current sale value) players do we have that we could sell at around or above £50 million?

I would say (without question):

• Chilwell
• Ricardo
• Tielemans
• Maddison
• Ndidi

£20-50 million:

• Soyuncu
• Gray
• Praet
• Iheanacho
• Barnes
• Evans?

That's at least £400 million of players without looking at 'prospects', some are homegrown but most have been bought. That isn't a bad return.

I've not added Vardy and Schmeichel into that list due to their age.

As your list proves we recruit 1 gem for every 2 duffers and another 'average/potential' signing alongside.

When you look at our team like that there aren't that many teams (excluding the top 4) who couldl list out their team to have that kind of value.

We are much healthier than you think, i believe.

 

[Payne74]

Wouldn't get that kind of money for Gray he is in the last year of his contract, Evans is 33 in January so won't get that much for him and Praet isn't proved enough to get much we spent £18 million on him I don't think he's done enough to increase his value
I get the general point and agree we are building into a very good team.

 

[ThaiSweetChilli]

You're right that our model depends on us getting recruitment right most of the time. If we didn't do this, we'd soon fall away.

Just like our performances against xG last season, I'd argue that our current rate of success in recruiting is now reverting to average. We benefitted massively from an exceptional leader of recruitment in Steve Walsh. He did some amazing deals for this club. Ever since he left, our rate of success in transfers has been much more mediocre. Since Walsh left, from memory, these are the main signings:

Zieler, Mendy, Hernandez, Musa, Kapustka, Slimani, Silva, Maguire, Iborra, Jackupovic, Iheanacho, Benkovic, Soyuncu, Ward, Ghezzal, Diabate, Maddison, Ricardo, Evans, Praet, Tielemans, Justin, Perez

Of these 23 players, I've highlighted the 6 that are clear successes and we know that one of those players (Maguire) was recommended by Walsh.

There are at least 11 that are clear failures. The rest are okay or not yet proven. This rate of success is about average but that's my point. We've become an average side at recruiting players now, as opposed to an exceptional one when Steve Walsh was in charge.

So if we sign 6 players this summer, expect no more than two of them to be successful. Three will probably fail and one will be okay. Now if we sell one established player and add two successful new ones, that works but we have to also acknowledge that time is catching up on our old guard so that rate isn't sustainable either.

Six key members of our first team squad (most of them signed by Walsh) are coming to the end of their effective life at the club (Schmeichel, Evans, Vardy, Morgan, Alrighton, Fuchs).

Our finances are pretty weak. Our wage to revenue is very high, quite dangerously high. There is no way that should remain which is the main reason why I've been advocating a major reduction in the size of the professional squad and have had an issue with the contract we gave to BR and his team. We have massive off field infrastructure plans which I just can't see being affordable unless we take a hit by selling more assets.

All this leads me to believe that we are at a tipping point over the next 12 months. We either do some amazing recruitment and go on to continue to challenge in the top half of the PL or we revert back to a mid table side that will eventually get caught in a relegation battle and lose it.

Does this not get reset to some level since Lee Congerton has arrived last year?

I know the scouting team is more than him, but surely our scouting ability changes as you rightly pointed out when Mr. Walsh left?

So you can look at the stats going back multiple years but that isn't necessarily a forecast for future years if the head of player recruitment and therefore potentially the way we run things change.

 

[FOX Franks]

Does this not get reset to some level since Lee Congerton has arrived last year?

I know the scouting team is more than him, but surely our scouting ability changes as you rightly pointed out when Mr. Walsh left?

So you can look at the stats going back multiple years but that isn't necessarily a forecast for future years if the head of player recruitment and therefore potentially the way we run things change.

I'd go further than that, I'd say future recruitment bears very little relevance if the team has changed.

 

[Brown Nose]

Last season was our 6th successive one in the PL so 2020/21 will be our 7th in a row in the top division. That is rare for our club and we've only survived in the top league for longer twice in our history - 1925-1935 and 1957-1969. Our previous spells in the top league are as follows:

2003-2004; 1994-1995; 1980-1981; 1954-1955; 1908-1909 = 1 year
1937-1939 = 2 years
1983-1987 = 4 years
1996-2002 = 6 years
1971-1978 = 7 years
1925-1935 = 10 years
1957-1969 = 12 years

So from this season, we've spent 53 years as a top flight side, 62 in the second league and one in the third.

By comparison, Forest have spent 56 seasons in the top flight, and Derby have spent 65 seasons there.

 

[Micky]

Good work BN. Let's hope Nottingham City never ever return.

 

[FOX Franks]

Good work BN. Let's hope Nottingham City never ever return.

Who?

 

[Micky]

Who?

That team who apparently once won a tin cup.