I thought that I'd look at teams' that had 25 points from their first 12 matches over the last decade and where they ended up. It hasn't happened as often as you'd expect.
The last team to do it were Newcastle in 2011 and they finished 5th with 65 points. Man Utd and Arsenal did it in 2010 and finished 2nd (85 points) and 3rd (75 points) respectively. Man City did it in 2007 and finished 9th with 55 points. The other team was Wigan in 2005 and they finished 10th with 51 points.
The conclusion from these experiences are that even if our form drops off dramatically, we're highly unlikely to finish below half way now - 50 points is usually the number required for this. You'd expect us to fall away at some point, like Man City and Wigan did, but even then, it would have to go down as highly successful season for us.
The average number of points required for a 4th place finish is 70. To achieve this total, we'd need form like: 13 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats.
The average number of points required for a top 6 finish is 62. To achieve this total, we'd need form like: 10 wins, 7 draws and 9 defeats.
Our best ever Premier League season was in 1999/2000 where we finished 8th with 55 points. We had 20 points from 12 matches that season. The following season, we had an excellent start but not as good as this year - we had 22 points from 12 games at this stage. Our season collapsed that year but we still finished 13th with 48 points.
The last time we finished higher than 8th was a 7th placed finish in 1975/1976. This season was notable for the fact that we hadn't won at match after 12 games (8 draw and 4 defeats).
The best before that was a 4th placed finish in 1962/1963. We had the equivalent of 22 points from our first 12 matches that year.
