Okay, so what does being top at Xmas mean statistically?
Year - Who topped the table on 25/12 - Where they finished
(I've also added the points total each team had after 17 matches that didn't go on to win it)
2014 - Chelsea - 1st
2013 - Liverpool - 2nd (36)
2012 - Man Utd - 1st
2011 - Man City - 1st
2010 - Man Utd - 1st
2009 - Chelsea - 1st
2008 - Liverpool - 2nd (38)
2007 - Arsenal - 3rd (40)
2006 - Man Utd - 1st
2005 - Chelsea - 1st
2004 - Chelsea - 1st
2003 - Man Utd - 3rd (40)
2002 - Arsenal - 2nd (35)
2001 - Newcastle - 4th (33)
2000 - Man Utd - 1st
1999 - Man Utd - 1st
1998 - Villa - 6th (33)
1997 - Man Utd - 2nd (37)
1996 - Liverpool - 4th (34)
1995 - Newcastle - 2nd (39)
1994 - Blackburn - 1st
1993 - Man Utd - 1st
1992 - Norwich - 3rd (36)
Over 23 years, 12 times the team top went on to win the league. 22/23 finished top four.
Of those teams with 38 points or more at this stage, the lowest they've finished is third.
On the other hand, only four clubs have been top at Xmas and carried this on to win it - Man Utd (6 times), Chelsea (4) and Man City (1), Blackburn (1).
It's only really Mourinho and Ferguson that have shown themselves capable of getting there and staying there. Most others get there and choke. Ranieri has a history of doing this too.
To me, the stats suggest that Arsenal are going to win it this year, with Man City second and Leicester third.
I'll settle for that.