Points Target for play-offs

[dpjfox]

I think historically its 70, which means 28points from 16 remaining games, not impossible

 

[GazLCFC]

I think historically its 70, which means 28points from 16 remaining games, not impossible

I was hoping for a spreadsheet

 

[Blue Maniac]

For ****'s sake.

 

[Jeff]

I think historically its 70

No it's not.

Sometimes 70 points is enough, usually it's not.

6th places teams points in recent years:

2011: 75
2010: 70
2009: 74
2008: 70
2007: 75
2006: 75
2005: 73

 

[FryattFox]

For ****'s sake.

Chill out. He just asked for a spreadsheet.

And if you're asking, I think the reason that he asked for a spreadsheet was because Joe used to make spreadsheets so as to relay a wide variety of data in a completely useless form.

 

[The Major]

All it would take is a 5 or 6 game winning streak to be right up there in the mix. Not saying that that is what's going to happen but it's not impossible.

 

[Nottingham Fox]

This season is already looking like we'll need to break records to get into the play-offs.

The teams that currently occupying those positions have averaged the following points so far per game:

Birmingham - 1.72
Cardiff - 1.66
Blackpool - 1.63
Hull - 1.68

They've averaged those points for well over half the season, so I don't see why they wouldn't be too dissimilar at the end of the season. On that basis they would end up with the following points (rounded down were applicable)

Birmingham - 79pts
Cardiff - 76pts
Blackpool - 75pts
Hull - 77pts

For reference we're currently averaging 1.4pts per game and should that continue, we'll finish on or around 64pts.

I've already written this season off.

 

[Siouxsie]

This season is already looking like we'll need to break records to get into the play-offs.

The teams that currently occupying those positions have averaged the following points so far per game:

Birmingham - 1.72
Cardiff - 1.66
Blackpool - 1.63
Hull - 1.68

They've averaged those points for well over half the season, so I don't see why they wouldn't be too dissimilar at the end of the season. On that basis they would end up with the following points (rounded down were applicable)

Birmingham - 79pts
Cardiff - 76pts
Blackpool - 75pts
Hull - 77pts

For reference we're currently averaging 1.4pts per game and should that continue, we'll finish on or around 64pts.

I've already written this season off.

If we're not having a spreadsheet could you possibly put that into a bar graph - please

 

[City Fan]

I've already written this season off.

I hope the players don't have that defeatist attitude.

We've seen a bit of a transformation over the past 6 games (4 league games) and have picked up 7 points and should have been at least 8 if it wasn't for the Beckford sending off farce. I am confident we can average 2 points a game from now until the end of the season.

Our next 4 games are very winnable even though 3 are away from home. 10 points from those games and we're right back in the mix.

 

[Mawsley]

If we're not having a spreadsheet could you possibly put that into a bar graph - please

I can put it in the form of a diagram

 

[Nottingham Fox]

I hope the players don't have that defeatist attitude.

We've seen a bit of a transformation over the past 6 games (4 league games) and have picked up 7 points and should have been at least 8 if it wasn't for the Beckford sending off farce. I am confident we can average 2 points a game from now until the end of the season.

Our next 4 games are very winnable even though 3 are away from home. 10 points from those games and we're right back in the mix.

Averaging 2pts a game will still not be enough if the teams currently in the playoff places continue to pick up the same amount of points as they have averaged for 65% of the season.

 

[TornadoShaunUK]

We've certainly proved ourselves capable over the last few matches. We need some teams above us to go on a bad run and the likes of Blackpool and Cardiff are starting to look a bit creaky. Obviously need to put our own run together as well.

 

[H T B]

All we can do is keep winning and see what happens.
If it doesn't get us into the playoffs this season, it should bode well for next (Here's hoping )

 

[glyn]

Winning two in a row for a change would be a start.

 

[Ike O'Noclassed]

Winning two in a row for a change would be a start.

Now we're just entering the realms of fantasy.

 

[lanxfox jnr]

Spreadsheets don't mean a thing, neither do point estimates, bar charts, anything. This league is unpredictable, anything could happen. Yes, I would like us to get in the play-offs, yes I would like us to go into the premier league, but whether we do is another question. We'll see whether we are in May.

 

[Siouxsie]

Spreadsheets don't mean a thing, neither do point estimates, bar charts, anything. .

spoilsport

 

[city-faithful]

Spreadsheets don't mean a thing, neither do point estimates, bar charts, anything.

Don't let Joe hear you say that. He lives for quantifiable data.

 

[dpjfox]

is it a good or bad thing we play 8 of the bottom 9 clubs in our remaining 16 games, imo maybe better to take points off those around us

 

[Jeff]

Averaging 2pts a game will still not be enough if the teams currently in the playoff places continue to pick up the same amount of points as they have averaged for 65% of the season.

The teams at the top won't continue to pick up points at the same rate, they never do. Some will do better, some will do worse. We have to make sure we can take the place of one of those teams that does worse.


Here is the top six on this date last season, their average points per game up to then, and their average points per game for the rest of the season:

[TABLE="align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]PPG to 12/2[/TD]
[TD]PPG after 12/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]QPR[/TD]
[TD]1.97[/TD]
[TD]1.81[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cardiff[/TD]
[TD]1.80[/TD]
[TD]1.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Norwich[/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swansea[/TD]
[TD]1.71[/TD]
[TD]1.80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forest[/TD]
[TD]1.86[/TD]
[TD]1.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Leeds[/TD]
[TD]1.68[/TD]
[TD]1.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


You can see that four of those teams failed to continue their good form, with two teams having quite big drops in their points per game. Forest and Leeds would have finished in the bottom half if they'd had their end of season form for the whole season.

Leeds dropped out of the top six and were replaced by Reading - who were 12th at this stage last season, the same position Leicester are in now, with the same number of points and games played.