Relegation stats

[step]

Points and goal difference of teams third from bottom at end of season

Year.........Points........GD

04............ 51............ -20
03.............46............-17
02............ 49............ -29
01............ 48.............-9
00............ 46.............-25
99............ 47............ -25
98............48..............-1
97............ 46............ -21
96............ 52............ -20
95............ 46............ -25
94............ 51............ -17
93............ 49............ -19

Some real statistics
Average....48............ -19
Std dev.......2...............8
UCL..........55...............4
LCL...........42............-42

Based on the previous results, Statistically, it would not be unreasonable for a team with 55 points and a goal difference of +4 to be third from bottom and to get relegated.

Equally, It would be reasonable for a team with 45 points and goal difference of -37 to be forth from bottom and therefore not to get religated.

The odds of a team with more than 55 points being relegated are very slim. Equally the odds of a team with 38 points or less, not to get religated are very slim.

Only once has a team with more than 52 points been religated from this league.

 

[Steven]

Statistically, it would not be unreasonable for a team with 55 points and a goal difference of +4 to be third from bottom and to get relegated.

Only 11 points to safety then. :-( :-( :? :? :roll: ;-) :mrgreen:

Good stats step. :smt023 ;-) :mrgreen:

 

[MKFox]

yeah, thanks for cheering us all up step...

 

[step]

Soz steven. original had a typing error. stats are right now

42 points, 99.97 chance of relegation
44 points, 95% chance of relegation
46 points, 85% chance of relegation
48 points, 50% chance of relegation
50 points, 20% chance of relegation
52 points, 5% chance of relegation
54 points. 0.03% chance of relegation

53 points should be ok
Two wins and three draws. easy

 

[Steven]

Good stuff. :smt023

 

[Bobby Smith]

53 points should be ok
Two wins and three draws. easy

We will win our next 2 games, trust me ;-)

 

[step]

Maximum possible points for each team, and if lots of results went our way we could finish forth from top. :-D But if they go against us we could still finish bottom.

Sunderland.....................................99
Wigan Athletic.................................97
Ipswich Town..................................94
Derby County.................................85
Preston North End...........................85
Sheffield United...............................82
Reading..........................................81
QPR...............................................80
West Ham United............................80
Stoke City.....................................79
Millwall..........................................76
Leeds United..................................74
Burnley.........................................73
Wolves ........................................72
Leicester City................................71
Cardiff City...................................66
Watford........................................66
Crewe Alexandra..........................66
Plymouth Argyle............................65
Brighton & Hove Albion..................65
Gillingham....................................63
Nottingham Forest.........................62
Coventry City...............................62
Rotherham United.........................46


Based on the form over the whole season we should end up with 53,9 points and in 15th possition.

Sunderland..................................... 92
Wigan Athletic................................. 89.3
Ipswich Town.................................. 85.6
Derby County................................. 73.8
Preston North End........................... 75.2
Sheffield United............................... 70
Reading.......................................... 70.5
QPR............................................... 67.2
West Ham United............................ 67.2
Stoke City ..................................... 66.2
Millwall.......................................... 64.8
Leeds United.................................. 62.1
Burnley......................................... 58.6
Wolves........................................ 60.1
Leicester City................................ 53.9
Cardiff City................................... 50.8
Watford........................................ 52.7
Crewe Alexandra.......................... 52.7
Plymouth Argyle............................ 51.7
Brighton & Hove Albion.................. 51.7
Gillingham .................................... 49
Nottingham Forest......................... 46
Coventry City............................... 48
Rotherham United......................... 29.2


Based on the recent form we should end up with 49.4 points and in 19th possition

Sunderland..................................... 96.2
Wigan Athletic................................. 92.1
Ipswich Town.................................. 82.1
Derby County................................. 77
Preston North End........................... 76.6
Stoke City ..................................... 71.8
QPR............................................... 68.8
Reading.......................................... 67.7
Sheffield United............................... 67.6
West Ham United............................ 66.4
Leeds United.................................. 64.2
Millwall.......................................... 62.7
Wolves........................................ 61.5
Burnley......................................... 54.6
Gillingham .................................... 53.2
Plymouth Argyle............................ 52.4
Nottingham Forest......................... 50.8
Cardiff City................................... 50
Leicester City................................ 49.4
Watford........................................ 49.2
Brighton & Hove Albion.................. 48.9
Coventry City............................... 48.7
Crewe Alexandra.......................... 48.5
Rotherham United......................... 28.5

Take note that based on the recent form the clubs around us and below us have very similar points to us. Oh oh

 

[Steven]

Based on the form over the whole season we should end up with 53,9 points and in 15th possition.

I'll take that right now. ;-) :mrgreen:

 

[step]

Some more stats

Our home form, Third from bottom. Average point per game 1.13
Our away form, In eigth possition. Average points per game 1.15

The points per game are very similar. The difference in league possition is because most teams do win more at home than away.
based on this we should end up with 10 more points and safe with 53 points

 

[Joe_Fox]

Why are we so shit at home this term? Last time we were in the division we stormed it at home. What has changed?

 

[lcfcrules]

Why are we so shit at home this term? Last time we were in the division we stormed it at home. What has changed?

The manager, the players, the coaches, the chairman, the atmosphere, Henry, everything a part from The Fat Birch has changed.

 

[Joe_Fox]

Why has the atmosphere changed though?

 

[Durham Fox]

Why has the atmosphere changed though?

Cos we were told to 'talk to me about about top 2' and in reality were some way short of that. Expectations were set and not even 5% of them were met.

 

[homer]

Why has the atmosphere changed though?

'cos Big Edna had to take a pay cut in Debenhams cafe
She's not happy about it

 

[Durham Fox]

Why has the atmosphere changed though?

'cos Big Edna had to take a pay cut in Debenhams cafe
She's not happy about it

Neither is Joe, you could cut the atmosphere with a knife on a saturday afternoon now.

 

[homer]

Whilst Big Edna cuts Joe another slice of Lemon Drizzle Cake


It's not pretty, but neither is Big Edna

 

[lcfcrules]

Why has the atmosphere changed though?

I remember there was one match, possibly against blackburn, when we were in the premiership, when towards the end of the 1st half, the kop just started some non stop clapping and singing, and Birch at half time challenged the kop to continue that in the 2nd half, and if we did, then we will get 3 poitns, and we did and won the game 2-0... the atmosphere that day was heart pounding...
Nowadays, alot of fans concentrate on picking on a player and slagging them off rather than back them up.

 

[Joe_Fox]

Oh yeah - the 'Wall of Sound'.

We won didn't we? It was on Sky I think.

 

[Country Fox]

that blackburn game was the best atmosphere i can remember at the walkers, along with maybe charlton (when we were winning till the 85th minute and everyone was starting to think we might actually stay up) and the 1-0 over forest the season before