Relegation stats

[step]

Numerically we could still make the playoffs. But based on the results up to last week end. Statistically, the probability that a team will move up the league by six places in the time left is around 1 in 1000. So for a team to climb more than that the odds increase concidrably.
Only once has a team climbed 5 placed in the fizzy with 7 games left.
That dont mean it wont happen. It could, but it would be very, very unusall.

The good news is that no team has ever dropped by more the 5 places in the amount of games left, we would need to drop 7 places to get relegated which means the odds against us getting relegated are way in exsess of 1 in 1000

We are staying up, We are staying up

 

[TommyK]

wow! good job step! where did you get those stats from?!!!

 

[step]

Hard work

 

[whit2167]

just because no team has ever dropped 7 places it don't mean we can't do it. i am not one of those fans who always looks at negatives and moans at the team, i just think its a bit naive to say we're not gonna go down just because its never happened before.

 

[Steven]

just because no team has ever dropped 7 places it don't mean we can't do it. i am not one of those fans who always looks at negatives and moans at the team, i just think its a bit naive to say we're not gonna go down just because its never happened before.

Then the whole of History is a bit naive. These stats are a strong indicator. ;-) :mrgreen:

 

[alex]

2167 your tag line makes no sense!!! Let's play unproven kids, they'll get us promoted for sure? Talk to yourself.

 

[Steven]

2167 your tag line makes no sense!!! Let's play unproven kids, they'll get us promoted for sure? Talk to yourself.

It may be a piss take. ;-) :mrgreen: It could work. ;-)

 

[alex]

2167 your tag line makes no sense!!! Let's play unproven kids, they'll get us promoted for sure? Talk to yourself.

It may be a piss take. ;-) :mrgreen: It could work. ;-)

Oh, well if it is, then that's a quality dig!!!!

 

[alex]

And as for yours Steven, talk to yourself.

 

[TommyK]

And as for yours Steven, talk to yourself.

steven - did you really sponsor junior lewis?

 

[webmaster]

2167 your tag line makes no sense!!! Let's play unproven kids, they'll get us promoted for sure? Talk to yourself.

It may be a piss take. ;-) :mrgreen: It could work. ;-)

Oh, well if it is, then that's a quality dig!!!!

I think it was set up last summer when some people were suggetsing the likes of Petrescu, Wesovolesksiloswloslwokislski etc should be put straight into the team.

 

[Steven]

And as for yours Steven, talk to yourself.

steven - did you really sponsor junior lewis?

I did. :roll:

 

[TommyK]

And as for yours Steven, talk to yourself.

steven - did you really sponsor junior lewis?

I did. :roll:

doh!

 

[step]

Whit.

All that statisticians do is use existing data to predict what the most likely outcome will be in the future.
An example is: You can be confident that most males will grow to be of similar height. Some will be smaller and some larger than average and the odd person will be a 2' 6" midget, equally the odd person will be a 7'6" giant.

Currently, the chances of city getting relegated or promoted are the equivalent of anyone being born a midget or a giant. Its possible, but unlikely.

Unless something drastically happens, to have an effect that data. ie a whole squad is killed by a virus or a club goes bust and closes down (A special effect) that data is very reliable and bookies, the lottery and governments use it very succesfully.

WE WILL NOT BE RELIGATED. I HOPE.

We will also get 53 - 55 points.

 

[Steven]

Whit.

All that statisticians do is use existing data to predict what the most likely outcome will be in the future.
An example is: You can be confident that most males will grow to be of similar height. Some will be smaller and some larger than average and the odd person will be a 2' 6" midget, equally the odd person will be a 7'6" giant.

Currently, the chances of city getting relegated or promoted are the equivalent of anyone being born a midget or a giant. Its possible, but unlikely.

Unless something drastically happens, to have an effect that data. ie a whole squad is killed by a virus or a club goes bust and closes down (A special effect) that data is very reliable and bookies, the lottery and governments use it very succesfully.

WE WILL NOT BE RELIGATED. I HOPE.

We will also get 53 - 55 points.

I look at it slightly differently. If you look at the table

Leicester	38	10	17	11	42	39	47	+3
Crewe	40	11	13	16	58	71	46	-13
Watford	40	10	15	15	48	54	45	-6
Plymouth	40	12	9	19	47	59	45	-12
Coventry	40	11	11	18	49	63	44	-14
Brighton	40	12	8	20	34	57	44	-23
Cardiff	39	10	13	16	40	43	43	-3
Gillingham	40	11	10	19	39	59	43	-20
Nottm Forest	39	8	15	16	37	55	39	-18
Rotherham	40	5	13	22	31	59	28	-28

you will see that effectively Gillingham have to win two more games than us (in spite of having played two more) between now and the end of the season and in the other four games get more points than we do in our remaining eight games.

Possible of course, but as likely as us getting promoted or relegated..... ;-) :mrgreen:

 

[whit2167]

yeah i did that signature last year because i was annoyed how everyone thought relegation could be avoided by playing kids with no first team experiance let alone premiership experiance. I am confident we won't go down i just don't think by looking at statistics that in truth mean nothing at the end of the day

 

[Joe_Fox]

Whit.

All that statisticians do is use existing data to predict what the most likely outcome will be in the future.
An example is: You can be confident that most males will grow to be of similar height. Some will be smaller and some larger than average and the odd person will be a 2' 6" midget, equally the odd person will be a 7'6" giant.

So basically you are saying that as long as we don't sign any dwarfs or peter crouch we'll be mid table?

 

[Durham Fox]

Whit.

All that statisticians do is use existing data to predict what the most likely outcome will be in the future.
An example is: You can be confident that most males will grow to be of similar height. Some will be smaller and some larger than average and the odd person will be a 2' 6" midget, equally the odd person will be a 7'6" giant.

So basically you are saying that as long as we don't sign any dwarfs or peter crouch we'll be mid table?

And as long as they are born near easter :roll:

 

[Joe_Fox]

Where is Easter? Does it have any shops?

 

[Durham Fox]

Where is Easter? Does it have any shops?

A few, mainly farmshops - selling eggs and that.