fcukcov
Active Member
If we are to have any faith in our old friend logic, and if the world turns with any sort of predictability, then there are two teams that will finish the new Championship season about a million points ahead of the rest.
If one had no idea which division they were in, and simply study Leicester and West Ham's summer transfer business, one might conclude that they were newly promoted sides putting together a solid squad for a Premier League campaign.
The recruitment drives in Easts Midlands and End have raised eyebrows across the country, and left the rest of the Championship sighing and shrugging, wondering if there's actually any point in turning up at all.
However, the cash-spunk extravaganzas overseen by Sven Goran Eriksson and Sam Allardyce also represent significant gambles. Both clubs are essentially betting - and betting big - on winning promotion this season, for different reasons. West Ham are in enough financial trouble without another season in the fiscal quicksand of the Championship, and they have the Olympic Stadium to consider as well, while Leicester will look incredibly silly if they don't walk the division after recruiting 11 new players (and counting) at a cost of around £10million.
The threat of 'financial fair play,' hanging over clubs like a particularly boring sword on a thread, must also be a factor. The 72 Football League clubs voted in June to adopt Michel Platini's rules on spending, and from the 2012/13 season Championship clubs will only be allowed to spend what they earn - a maverick idea, for sure. The question of 'How will West Ham and Leicester get around that one?' can simply be answered by saying 'They don't plan to be in the Championship by then.'
The challenge that Eriksson faces is obviously knitting this new team together. It's perfectly possible that Leicester will start their opening game at Coventry with eight or nine new players, including an entirely fresh back five. The theory of bringing a job-lot of Premier League quality players is sound, but the practise is rather more difficult.
It's possible that we're blinded by the sheer volume of money spent. Championship clubs simply do not spend £4.7million on anyone, let alone on a defender, as Leicester have with Matt Mills. But as we all know, money does not necessarily equal success - only Sheffield United have recently paid anything like that amount for one player in the Football League, when they spent £4million on James Beattie back in 2007. Beattie did score 22 goals, but after the Blades failed to win promotion, he got bored and left for Stoke 15 months later.
West Ham's big problem is, while Leicester are thinking about which players they're going to gain, the Hammers still don't know who they're going to lose. Rob Green, Carlton Cole and Scott Parker could start the season at Upton Park, but there are still a few weeks for 20 Premier League clubs to panic and pay over the odds for one/all of them. It's therefore tricky for Allardyce to plan for the full season, but the addition of Kevin Nolan, Matty Taylor and Abdoulaye Faye gives him a good starting point.
Even with those caveats in mind, it's difficult to look past these two for the automatic spots. Below that, expect the usual Championship bun-fight for the playoff spots. Given that newly-promoted Norwich went up last season and Blackpool the year before, making any confident predictions becomes a mug's game. So here goes.
The most obvious candidates for 'the best of the rest' are probably Nottingham Forest. Schteve McClaren's toothy grin has been fading over the summer as he realises the perils of attracting players to the City Ground, but Forest still have the nucleus of the side that has reached the playoffs in the last two seasons (despite losing nine players and only adding three). Should they buy the right players in the right positions (left-back, striker, possibly another winger) then they could challenge, but chairman Nigel Doughty is being understandably cautious with the club's money - understandable because most of it is his. Perhaps a new manager will change their proclivity for collapsing spectacularly in the playoffs.
The other clubs that went down with West Ham are tricky to assess. Birmingham have lost their own, and a few other clubs' fair share of players already, and the likes of Scott Dann and Cameron Jerome are scratching at the St Andrew's door like a mournful cat, trying to get out. In Chris Hughton they have a hugely dignified and decent man at the helm, but the ship he's guiding is looking decidedly light on numbers.
As for Blackpool, one imagines that Ian Holloway will continue with the devil-may-care football of the past couple of seasons. However, it will be extremely interesting to see if the strategy works quite so well without Charlie Adam, and his very able sidekick David Vaughan. Barry Ferguson has come in to replace Adam, but his range of passing is not quite as rapier-like, and his legs a little more sluggish.
Cardiff are another tricky side to work out. Dave Jones was arguably unlucky to be sacked, but they had a reputation for choking that rivalled the South African cricket and New Zealand rugby teams. Their entire strike force from last season (Bellamy, Chopra, Bothroyd, Emmanuel-Thomas) have all gone to be replaced with some experienced heads (Earnshaw, Miller), while Malky Mackay was recruited for his skill with an extremely limited budget at Watford.
Many are tipping Leeds for great things, but given a reasonably pedestrian side have already lost Kasper Schmeichel and Bradley Johnson (while it wouldn't be a massive shock Max Gradel and Robert Snodgrass went too), and added not a great deal, it's difficult to see them doing much.
There's always a surprise in the Championship, and there are a clutch of clubs duking it out for that spot. Ipswich are perhaps the ones that look most interesting - they've signed Lee Bowyer and a trio of forwards (Chopra, Emmanuel-Thomas, Ellington) that will be good for a decent lot of goals. Some may wonder about the departure of Connor Wickham, but he it's not like the heart will be ripped out of their side, given that he only scored nine times last season.
Middlesbrough look interesting too. They might struggle for goals, but they looked like promotion contenders in the second half of last season. If their post-December form had been replicated over the whole campaign, they would've finished on 72 points, missing the playoffs by a hair. They have lost a few players, but the impact of Tony Mowbray cannot be underestimated.
Keep your eye on Derby as well. Given the amount of players they have signed (nine at the last count, including a couple of loan deals made permanent and a loan), their season really could go either way. The purchase of Frankie Fielding was a coup and a half, Nathan Tyson might be a shrewd free signing while Jason Shackell should do well too.
As for those that will be in trouble, one fears that Crystal Palace's time might be up. For the past few seasons they have clung on by their very fingertips, but the loss of Neil Danns will be a blow, and the rest of their squad looks callow at best. Coventry have lost some key men, while the departure of Malky Mackay could do for Watford.
The season starts on Friday, and as ever it will be a mixture of high excitement, frustration, spirit-crushing boredom and mental drama. It's going to be fun.
Predictions, to be discounted and ripped up by September:
Automatic: West Ham, Leicester.
Playoffs: Forest, Ipswich, Reading, Blackpool.
Relegated: Coventry, Crystal Palace, Watford.
http://www.football365.com/f365-features/7079008/Champo-Preview
