Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
Now I never bet on football. In fact, I only ever bet on the Grand National. I look at bookmakers and see them win and think that betting is a mug's game (see Joe Fox and his absurd system(s)).
However, I do like to play (winning) poker and I do like to challenge myself against people who think they know better.
Now, I watched this betting programme on BBC1 recently and thought that the idiots that set the betting markets seemed to know the lean side of feck all so I'm not exactly taking on a genius set of algorithms or something.
This has led me to attempt a small series of football bets.
For the first forty matches of the season, effectively August's fixtures, I'm betting on the first goalscorer in each Premier League game. I'm betting £2.50 e/w each time so my total outlay is £200. I'm doing it with Paddy Power as their e/w odds and rules appeared to me to be the most favourable. I may have got this very wrong?
On the first round of fixtures, I 'invested' £50 and got £38.33 back. So, I'm already £11.67 down. For the interest of one or two others(?), I thought I'd post my second week predictions:
Liverpool v Bournemouth - A Lallana @ 15/2 -£5.00
Man City v Chelsea - E Hazard @ 9/1 -£5.00
Crystal Palace v Arsenal - S Cazorla @ 10/1 -£5.00
West Ham v Leicester - D Sakho @ 11/2 -£5.00
Watford v West Brom - J Lescott @ 33/1 -£5.00
Tottenham v Stoke - C Eriksen @ 11/2 -£5.00
Swansea v Newcastle - G Sigurdsson @ 7/1 -£5.00
Sunderland v Norwich - L Grabban @ 13/2 -£5.00
Southampton v Everton - J Rodriguez @ 11/2 -£5.00
Aston Villa v Man Utd - J Mata @ 13/2 -£5.00
My general approach with selections is to back someone realistic and with decent looking odds.
I can vouch for the fact that these bets have led me to focus/watch matches with a heightened interest. In week one, one of my picks scored first and two were an inch from scoring first and this made my weekend viewing much more exciting. Of course, if my approach is a losing one, I will soon give up and my interest will fade.
This may well all prove to be a folly but I would be interested in anyone else's football bets or comments on my choice of bet type/amount etc. What I'm really looking for is something to bet on in Premier League matches that I can make a small profit at. That way, I get the challenge, the enjoyment/interest and the smug satisfaction.
However, I do like to play (winning) poker and I do like to challenge myself against people who think they know better.
Now, I watched this betting programme on BBC1 recently and thought that the idiots that set the betting markets seemed to know the lean side of feck all so I'm not exactly taking on a genius set of algorithms or something.
This has led me to attempt a small series of football bets.
For the first forty matches of the season, effectively August's fixtures, I'm betting on the first goalscorer in each Premier League game. I'm betting £2.50 e/w each time so my total outlay is £200. I'm doing it with Paddy Power as their e/w odds and rules appeared to me to be the most favourable. I may have got this very wrong?
On the first round of fixtures, I 'invested' £50 and got £38.33 back. So, I'm already £11.67 down. For the interest of one or two others(?), I thought I'd post my second week predictions:
Liverpool v Bournemouth - A Lallana @ 15/2 -£5.00
Man City v Chelsea - E Hazard @ 9/1 -£5.00
Crystal Palace v Arsenal - S Cazorla @ 10/1 -£5.00
West Ham v Leicester - D Sakho @ 11/2 -£5.00
Watford v West Brom - J Lescott @ 33/1 -£5.00
Tottenham v Stoke - C Eriksen @ 11/2 -£5.00
Swansea v Newcastle - G Sigurdsson @ 7/1 -£5.00
Sunderland v Norwich - L Grabban @ 13/2 -£5.00
Southampton v Everton - J Rodriguez @ 11/2 -£5.00
Aston Villa v Man Utd - J Mata @ 13/2 -£5.00
My general approach with selections is to back someone realistic and with decent looking odds.
I can vouch for the fact that these bets have led me to focus/watch matches with a heightened interest. In week one, one of my picks scored first and two were an inch from scoring first and this made my weekend viewing much more exciting. Of course, if my approach is a losing one, I will soon give up and my interest will fade.
This may well all prove to be a folly but I would be interested in anyone else's football bets or comments on my choice of bet type/amount etc. What I'm really looking for is something to bet on in Premier League matches that I can make a small profit at. That way, I get the challenge, the enjoyment/interest and the smug satisfaction.