50 points

Joe_Fox · Jan 4, 2006

I can't believe I'm looking at this but to survive in the Championship you normally need 50 points (based on last 4 seasons).

Some of the talk on the OS is about 'a better second half of the season' but we are well into the second half of the season already! Indeed we are nearly 60% through the season.

We have 26 points at the moment and at this rate we will end up on 44 or 45 points - THIS MEANS RELEGATION.

We need to pick up at least as many points as we already have accumulated in 33.33% less matches than we have played so far.

These are the points that I predict we will get in our remaining matches:

[FONT=arial","helvetica]Sheff Wed [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]14-01-2006 - 1 point [/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Cardiff [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]21-01-2006 - 3 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Plymouth[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 24-01-2006 - 1 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]QPR [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]31-01-2006 - 0 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Wolves[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 04-02-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Brighton [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 11-02-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Derby [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]14-02-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leeds [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]18-02-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Ipswich [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 25-02-2006 - 0 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Hull City[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 04-03-2006 - 3 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Luton [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]11-03-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Millwall [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 18-03-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Reading[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 25-03-2006 - 0 [/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Norwich [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]01-04-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] C Palace[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 08-04-2006 - 1 [/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Preston [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]15-04-2006 - 3 [/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Coventry [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 17-04-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Plymouth[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 22-04-2006 - 3 points[/FONT]
[FONT=arial","helvetica]Southampton [/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica]vs[/FONT] [FONT=arial","helvetica]Leicester[/FONT][FONT=arial","helvetica] 30-04-2006 - 1 point[/FONT]

This is 24 points whcih means if this is correct, we'll end up on 50 points.
I have the feeling those nerves we are all feeling now are going to get
worse and worse from here on in.

C'MON LEICESTER! STRING A FEW WINS TOGETHER AND END THIS
STUPID SITUATION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER!

Melton Fox · Jan 4, 2006

I feel a little better now knowing that we will only lose 3 of our remaining games. Thanks Joe, you made my day

Joe_Fox · Jan 4, 2006

Melton Fox said:
I feel a little better now knowing that we will only lose 3 of our remaining games. Thanks Joe, you made my day

Shit - just realised that - I was trying to be as optimistic as possible though!

webmaster · Jan 4, 2006

Joe_Fox said:
I
We have 26 points at the moment and at this rate we will end up on 44 or 45 points - THIS MEANS RELEGATION.

No it doesn't. Finishing in the bottom 3 means relegation. If the teams below us at the moment continue at the same rate they have done so far, they'll finish below us.

The fact is no one knows how many points will be required for safety. 40 might be enough, 50 might not be enough.

The one thing that we do know for certain is that we have to stay out of the bottom three.

Redditch Fox · Jan 4, 2006

webmaster said:
No it doesn't. Finishing in the bottom 3 means relegation. If the teams below us at the moment continue at the same rate they have done so far, they'll finish below us.

The fact is no one knows how many points will be required for safety. 40 might be enough, 50 might not be enough.

The one thing that we do know for certain is that we have to stay out of the bottom three.

and if we continue on the basis of current form, we could finish below the bottom 3!

fcukcov · Jan 4, 2006

Redditch Fox said:
and if we continue on the basis of current form, we could finish below the bottom 3!

how exactly is that possible?

Graz · Jan 4, 2006

Thing is, you can't really look at form like that. Fair enough to say you need 50ish points to stay up, managers always do that and that's fair planning. But saying we got x amount of points in our games so far means we'll get y points from the remaining games which is however many points for the season which means we'll get relegated doesn't work.
If our performance in the remaining games mirrors the performance in the games already played then we would be short of the 50 points we need to stay up so would be relegated, that's what people keep saying. But if you're assuming we're going to get as many points from the rest of the season as we have done so far, then shouldn't you be doing that for other clubs as well, which would mean we would be safe.

The fact is that simple maths working out point projections doesn't work in football. Football isn't simple, logical and doesn't have great patterns or formulae. The truth is we are currently 1 point off the relegation zone, which means that right now we are in deep shit and have a very good chance of getting relegated. The team needs to be going out there every game giving everything they've got to get the win to get as many points as possible, and then pray, pray, pray that we finish the season with enough points to stay in this league, and hopefully have a better position than we've got right now. Whether that will happen or not, I don't know and we'll have to wait and see, but I bloody well hope we do!
But all these calculations into how many points we should have based on what we've got now are pointless, as I'm sure if you did it for all 92 league teams in the country, it probably wouldn't come true for any of them, or at least not many.

That's not just to you, it's just that I keep seeing people these sorts of posts and it's silly.
Fair enough working out where you think we will be able to pick points from the remaining games though, more sense to that..

flashyfox · Jan 4, 2006

Everything seems to be possible according to this forum at the moment. levein going to be sacked, Leicester to be relegated, Earnshaw signing, Tim Davies posting comments, Girls Aloud playing At HT against Spurs etc etc.

MKFox · Jan 4, 2006

flashyfox said:
Girls Aloud playing At HT against Spurs

That'll be the only result we get on Sunday...

foxes1970 · Jan 4, 2006

MKFox said:
That'll be the only result we get on Sunday...

sooner have showaddywaddy

MKFox · Jan 5, 2006

foxes1970 said:
sooner have showaddywaddy

:icon_conf Highland wants the village people...

Willlow · Jan 5, 2006

MKFox said:
:icon_conf Highland wants the village people...

I thought the village people wanted Highland after what happened with the local cattle!! :102:

Brauny Blue · Jan 5, 2006

Willlow said:
I thought the village people wanted Highland after what happened with the local cattle!!

That reminds me how long before we play the shaggers

Macky · Jan 5, 2006

Brauny Blue said:
That reminds me how long before we play the shaggers

Valentines day

turnstileblue63 · Jan 5, 2006

Lets face it, were gonna being going to St. Mary's in need of a win to stay up.

With the season going like it is, this scenario is inevitable.

:013:

somebody please!, sort this mess out.

lazzer · Jan 5, 2006

based on joes predictions :icon_bigg hardly cause for concern

Chrysalis · Jan 5, 2006

webmaster said:
No it doesn't. Finishing in the bottom 3 means relegation. If the teams below us at the moment continue at the same rate they have done so far, they'll finish below us.

The fact is no one knows how many points will be required for safety. 40 might be enough, 50 might not be enough.

The one thing that we do know for certain is that we have to stay out of the bottom three.

Did you look at my observation thread and see the form table? That means much more then looking at a first half season table.

Joe_Fox · Jan 5, 2006

This thread was merely a springboard for a discussion. I have to say to Webbo that I think he is rather foolish to think that 44 or 45 points may not mean relegation.

If you look at the last 10 seasons, the average point tally for the team finishing in 22nd (third from bottom) position is 48.3 points.

The lowest of these scores is 46 and the highest 52. Now I would say that 10 years is enough time to form a reliable pattern and can pretty safely say that 44/45 points will mean relegation.

newtonfox · Jan 5, 2006

as long as we stay hwo gives a s*&* what points we need anyway ponits = prises and as you started the thread what do we get :icon_razz :icon_razz :098:

Joe_Fox · Jan 5, 2006

newtonfox said:
as long as we stay hwo gives a s*&* what points we need anyway ponits = prises and as you started the thread what do we get :icon_razz :icon_razz

Hmmm, for you a dictionary.

P		Pld	Pts
1	Leicester	46	97
2	Ipswich	46	96
3	Leeds Utd	46	90
4	Southampton	46	87
5	West Brom	46	75
6	Norwich City	46	73
7	Hull City	46	70
8	Middlesbro	46	69
9	Coventry City	46	64
10	Preston	46	63
11	Bristol City	46	62
12	Cardiff City	46	62
13	Millwall	46	59
14	Swansea City	46	57
15	Watford	46	56
16	Sunderland	46	56
17	Stoke City	46	56
18	QPR	46	56
19	Blackburn	46	53
20	Sheffield W	46	53
21	Plymouth	46	51
22	Birmingham	46	50
23	Huddersfield	46	45
24	Rotherham Utd	46	27

50 points

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