Brenxit - Sack Brendan? (poll)

[fitz]

Fitz, come on son, you’re better than this. The poll is about sacking the manager. When Claude was on his way it was obvious from the players, same for Claudio, yet the last 135 mins of football says to me that this lot are firmly behind Brendan. And for good reason.

The main reasons for giving up on Ted are tactics and signings. Congerton going is a plus. It shouldn't have taken 18 league games but we're now trying to defend corners...will it last? The subs yesterday also made sense which is a rarity. I'm not changing my mind off the back of one good result. If in a few weeks we're still trying to defend corners and passes aren't just going sideways then I'll definitely change my vote.

 

[Brown Nose]

I know people don't like xG, but I do.

It shows two sides in the PL have a very inflated position - us and Man Utd. Both of us have picked up a lot more points than we've 'earned'.

Last night was a case in point. Yes, we fought well and battled for the win but we got very lucky with the penalty, the rebound onto the bar, the misses from Mane and Jota, etc. We only created one opportunity and we took it. That's great but it's not sustainable.

In the xG league table, we're six points outside the bottom three rather than the fourteen points that we are in reality. You can argue that we've been unlucky with injuries this season but I'd argue that we've been much more lucky with our results. In the xG table, we're level on points with Leeds.

BR has badly underachieved this season and a win last night doesn't change that. I remain undecided about him because he has massively screwed up over and over this season. He has played the hand he's been dealt very poorly.

I want him to improve and things like abandoning the idiotic set piece defending last night helps. The last thing we need is a change of manager and BR did great in his first two seasons here. But we cannot pretend that everything in the garden is rosy.

 

[popillius]

In the xG league table, we're six points outside the bottom three rather than the fourteen points that we are in reality.

Which in itself, shows you what an absolute crock of donkey shit it is as a measure.

Case closed.

 

[City Fan]

Which in itself, shows you what an absolute crock of donkey shit it is as a measure.

Case closed.

I usually disregard xG. But I do believe it’s accurate to say we’ve won more points than we have deserved. Wolves and Norwich at the start of the season spring to mind, as does Brentford away.

 

[give_us_a_wave]

Which in itself, shows you what an absolute crock of donkey shit it is as a measure.

Case closed.

I'm afraid this isn't a valid point.

I've been betting on football for almost 4 decades. Back to the days when you had to hassle shop staff for odds as football betting really wasn't a thing for bookies.
Since the dawn of internet bookmakers I've expanded as the info available & the bets offered have changed beyond recognition.
It's also made it possible for me to keep detailed records in the same way I always had with horses.

Since I factored XG into my football bets 3 years ago the profit margin on my bets has increased by an overall 17%

I'm not sure how much you know about the mechanics of betting & the maths that goes with it but I can assure you that's a massive differential. Absolutely no way it can be dismissed as a blip or fluke. Not when it's consistent over a 3 year period. No other metric has ever made a comparable impact.

XG is one of those things that works over a large data set & an extended time frame...& work it most certainly does.

It's at the centre of the analysis techniques used by people like Matthew Benham & Tony Bloom whose betting syndicates made them the money used to purchase their boyhood clubs & take them to the premier league. It's also a major part of the way those clubs are run, particularly with regard to transfer policy.

It just works. Everything regresses to the mean in the end, so ignoring an issue short term just leads to horrors in the long term. We can't get away with the low levels of creativity we have forever so we should use the information the figures give us to change things before the problem hits rather than after when panic sets in. A club our side needs to stay ahead of the curve if we're to maintain the position we've reached. Otherwise the only way is down.

 

[popillius]

I'm afraid this isn't a valid point.

I've been betting on football for almost 4 decades. Back to the days when you had to hassle shop staff for odds as football betting really wasn't a thing for bookies.
Since the dawn of internet bookmakers I've expanded as the info available & the bets offered have changed beyond recognition.
It's also made it possible for me to keep detailed records in the same way I always had with horses.

Since I factored XG into my football bets 3 years ago the profit margin on my bets has increased by an overall 17%

I'm not sure how much you know about the mechanics of betting & the maths that goes with it but I can assure you that's a massive differential. Absolutely no way it can be dismissed as a blip or fluke. Not when it's consistent over a 3 year period. No other metric has ever made a comparable impact.

XG is one of those things that works over a large data set & an extended time frame...& work it most certainly does.

It's at the centre of the analysis techniques used by people like Matthew Benham & Tony Bloom whose betting syndicates made them the money used to purchase their boyhood clubs & take them to the premier league. It's also a major part of the way those clubs are run, particularly with regard to transfer policy.

It just works. Everything regresses to the mean in the end, so ignoring an issue short term just leads to horrors in the long term. We can't get away with the low levels of creativity we have forever so we should use the information the figures give us to change things before the problem hits rather than after when panic sets in. A club our side needs to stay ahead of the curve if we're to maintain the position we've reached. Otherwise the only way is down.

It isn't purely mathematical. It is therefore essentially flawed. I'm sure some people have felt the benefit and I'm sure it can be used in a very small way to help with statistical analysis but it's no better than many other measures, it's simply more fashionable.

It's bollocks to suggest that this is in anyway more sound a judgement than any other statistical analysis. I don't need an xG number to tell me that we haven't been as creative as we could be, that's there for all to see. But then, so is our league position and the number of goals we have scored. Things may well tend towards the mean but the time frame in which they do could be vast.

 

[Biffa Bacon]

I'm afraid this isn't a valid point.

I've been betting on football for almost 4 decades. Back to the days when you had to hassle shop staff for odds as football betting really wasn't a thing for bookies.
Since the dawn of internet bookmakers I've expanded as the info available & the bets offered have changed beyond recognition.
It's also made it possible for me to keep detailed records in the same way I always had with horses.

Since I factored XG into my football bets 3 years ago the profit margin on my bets has increased by an overall 17%

I'm not sure how much you know about the mechanics of betting & the maths that goes with it but I can assure you that's a massive differential. Absolutely no way it can be dismissed as a blip or fluke. Not when it's consistent over a 3 year period. No other metric has ever made a comparable impact.

XG is one of those things that works over a large data set & an extended time frame...& work it most certainly does.

It's at the centre of the analysis techniques used by people like Matthew Benham & Tony Bloom whose betting syndicates made them the money used to purchase their boyhood clubs & take them to the premier league. It's also a major part of the way those clubs are run, particularly with regard to transfer policy.

It just works. Everything regresses to the mean in the end, so ignoring an issue short term just leads to horrors in the long term. We can't get away with the low levels of creativity we have forever so we should use the information the figures give us to change things before the problem hits rather than after when panic sets in. A club our side needs to stay ahead of the curve if we're to maintain the position we've reached. Otherwise the only way is down.

As a long term gambler do you actually have a profit margin? Most I know don't, a few seriously talented card players have decent return the rest are deluded.

 

[fitz]

It isn't purely mathematical. It is therefore essentially flawed. I'm sure some people have felt the benefit and I'm sure it can be used in a very small way to help with statistical analysis but it's no better than many other measures, it's simply more fashionable.

It's bollocks to suggest that this is in anyway more sound a judgement than any other statistical analysis. I don't need an xG number to tell me that we haven't been as creative as we could be, that's there for all to see. But then, so is our league position and the number of goals we have scored. Things may well tend towards the mean but the time frame in which they do could be vast.

Most successful sports traders look beyond simple made up numbers like xg anyway and they'll combine it with stats about where goals come from/conceded from. Dependence on certain players etc who may not be playing. If you have someone like westham v Leicester and you've got shitloads to play with you can stake as much as you like on Leicester to concede (using our inability to defend corners and them being a bit tall). The odds would be shit on us not keeping a clean sheet but if you stake 100k and get 40k profit then fair ****s.

Us v Man Utd would probably have odds favouring them but I'm fairly sure they've not scored (or have a low tally) from corners. So it's worth backing us or putting a lay bet against man utd.

I stuck £10 on us to beat Liverpool yesterday using no logic beyond a hunch and klopp n pals being a bunch of fannies the other night.

 

[popillius]

Most successful sports traders look beyond simple made up numbers like xg anyway and they'll combine it with stats about where goals come from/conceded from. Dependence on certain players etc who may not be playing. If you have someone like westham v Leicester and you've got shitloads to play with you can stake as much as you like on Leicester to concede (using our inability to defend corners and them being a bit tall). The odds would be shit on us not keeping a clean sheet but if you stake 100k and get 40k profit then fair ****s.

Us v Man Utd would probably have odds favouring them but I'm fairly sure they've not scored (or have a low tally) from corners. So it's worth backing us or putting a lay bet against man utd.

I stuck £10 on us to beat Liverpool yesterday using no logic beyond a hunch and klopp n pals being a bunch of fannies the other night.

Precisely. xG will remain fashionable for a bit until the next 'beat the bookies' stat raises an ugly head.

 

[give_us_a_wave]

As a long term gambler do you actually have a profit margin? Most I know don't, a few seriously talented card players have decent return the rest are deluded.

97% of regular gamblers lose over the long term. Of the other 3% a third of those make enough to do it for a living & have no other source of income. I'm not in that section.

I am in the other 2 thirds though in that i show an overall profit. Or at least I have done for the past 20 years. The 20 years before that were a learning curve as is acquiring any skill. In those days I only bet occasionally on certain events & it was all a bit hit & miss. But I paid attention & learned from the mistakes.

It became a more serious pursuit after the turn of the century when bookmakers went online in a serious way & Betfair started. The ability to place lay bets & therefore trade out of bad positions & limit losses made a huge difference. Also the appearance of the Asian handicap markets increased opportunities, as did the over/under markets. They all opened up avenues for betting that hadn't existed previously. Thats when it took off. I started keeping records from 2005 onwards.

Since 2005 the total profit figure stands at a shade over 42 grand. I record a final figure for every year on new years day after the Cheltenham race meeting that day.

2005 wasn't a full year as I made the record keeping decision in the summer but over the whole span of the years it works out to roughly £2300 as an average profit per year. The biggest one off stake was £50. The vast majority are £20 either as a straight win or a tenner e/w on horses. Usually £25 on a football bet. I rarely bet on 1x2 results markets, it's normally a handicap score bet or an over/under goals bet. betting on football is low margin so it takes a long time to build a profit total. Horses give bigger returns but bigger risks. It's all about the odds & your own personal appetite for risk. I'm quite conservative in that regard. Happy to build a bank slowly.
In 2012 I had 17 bookmaker accounts. I now have 4 having been either heavily restricted or outright banned by the others. So i use the exchanges a lot now.
I did shed a nostalgic tear at losing my Ladbrokes account, which I'd held since it was a telephone account opened on my 18th birthday.

This year has been below average & as of this minute looks like being about £1800 up unless i nab a big winner at the weekend.

Biggest ever win was £6000 on a combination 5-fold & Yankee on 17/02/2016. It would have been £10400 if I hadn't hedged out on the 12/1 shot running for me in the last, which of course went on to win.
Total stake on that was £31 (26 x £1 on the Yankee & a fiver on the 5-fold) Unsurprisingly 2016 was my best ever year. Despite not betting on us to win the ****ing league !

Over the years it's paid for half a dozen very nice holidays, some nice turntables, a lot of great days out at sporting events, presents for stepchildren & some extremely debauched awaydays that are best left unmentioned.

Oh. & a very nice Ozwald Boateng suit that I just wanted as my only ever designer clothing treat. It's not something that usually remotely interests me but this thing was ****ing ridiculous & I had to have it. 700 quid.

Since sold on as:

a) I am now XL as opposed to L

b) a 57 year old man in an Imperial Purple suit can only ever look a ****.

The trick is to regard it as a hobby or interest. Since 2005 I haven't made a deposit to a bookies account other than when I've had one closed down or restricted & had to withdraw & move it to another one. So it exists entirely seperately to any other money I might have & doesn't affect my weekly/monthly budget in any way. Thats the key really. The rises & falls over time have no effect on the rest of my life.

I also don't have expensive tastes (other than that suit) So don't get tempted to spunk profits on pointless tat. I live in council accomodation so my rent is low & secure. I don't buy labels (apart from the suit!) I don't drive. Had a bike licence for a long time but due to illness can no longer ride so that expense is gone too.

Put all that together & I've done very well.

BUT...anyone asking me for tips can **** right off. You have to be prepared to lose £150 quid in an afternoon & come back tomorrow & I refuse to be responsible for anyone else having a shit day !

 

[Mikeoadby]

Reminds me of the old adage; There's lies, damned lies and then Statistics!

 

[FrenchFox]

Reminds me of the old adage; There's lies, damned lies and then Statistics!

Reminds me of other old adages ; Stick to what you know, do your research, be patient and learn from your mistakes. Well done give_us_a_wave and thank you for a very interesting life-story.

 

[popillius]

97% of regular gamblers lose over the long term. Of the other 3% a third of those make enough to do it for a living & have no other source of income. I'm not in that section.

I am in the other 2 thirds though in that i show an overall profit. Or at least I have done for the past 20 years. The 20 years before that were a learning curve as is acquiring any skill. In those days I only bet occasionally on certain events & it was all a bit hit & miss. But I paid attention & learned from the mistakes.

It became a more serious pursuit after the turn of the century when bookmakers went online in a serious way & Betfair started. The ability to place lay bets & therefore trade out of bad positions & limit losses made a huge difference. Also the appearance of the Asian handicap markets increased opportunities, as did the over/under markets. They all opened up avenues for betting that hadn't existed previously. Thats when it took off. I started keeping records from 2005 onwards.

Since 2005 the total profit figure stands at a shade over 42 grand. I record a final figure for every year on new years day after the Cheltenham race meeting that day.

2005 wasn't a full year as I made the record keeping decision in the summer but over the whole span of the years it works out to roughly £2300 as an average profit per year. The biggest one off stake was £50. The vast majority are £20 either as a straight win or a tenner e/w on horses. Usually £25 on a football bet. I rarely bet on 1x2 results markets, it's normally a handicap score bet or an over/under goals bet. betting on football is low margin so it takes a long time to build a profit total. Horses give bigger returns but bigger risks. It's all about the odds & your own personal appetite for risk. I'm quite conservative in that regard. Happy to build a bank slowly.
In 2012 I had 17 bookmaker accounts. I now have 4 having been either heavily restricted or outright banned by the others. So i use the exchanges a lot now.
I did shed a nostalgic tear at losing my Ladbrokes account, which I'd held since it was a telephone account opened on my 18th birthday.

This year has been below average & as of this minute looks like being about £1800 up unless i nab a big winner at the weekend.

Biggest ever win was £6000 on a combination 5-fold & Yankee on 17/02/2016. It would have been £10400 if I hadn't hedged out on the 12/1 shot running for me in the last, which of course went on to win.
Total stake on that was £31 (26 x £1 on the Yankee & a fiver on the 5-fold) Unsurprisingly 2016 was my best ever year. Despite not betting on us to win the ****ing league !

Over the years it's paid for half a dozen very nice holidays, some nice turntables, a lot of great days out at sporting events, presents for stepchildren & some extremely debauched awaydays that are best left unmentioned.

Oh. & a very nice Ozwald Boateng suit that I just wanted as my only ever designer clothing treat. It's not something that usually remotely interests me but this thing was ****ing ridiculous & I had to have it. 700 quid.

Since sold on as:

a) I am now XL as opposed to L

b) a 57 year old man in an Imperial Purple suit can only ever look a ****.

The trick is to regard it as a hobby or interest. Since 2005 I haven't made a deposit to a bookies account other than when I've had one closed down or restricted & had to withdraw & move it to another one. So it exists entirely seperately to any other money I might have & doesn't affect my weekly/monthly budget in any way. Thats the key really. The rises & falls over time have no effect on the rest of my life.

I also don't have expensive tastes (other than that suit) So don't get tempted to spunk profits on pointless tat. I live in council accomodation so my rent is low & secure. I don't buy labels (apart from the suit!) I don't drive. Had a bike licence for a long time but due to illness can no longer ride so that expense is gone too.

Put all that together & I've done very well.

BUT...anyone asking me for tips can **** right off. You have to be prepared to lose £150 quid in an afternoon & come back tomorrow & I refuse to be responsible for anyone else having a shit day !

I love this post.

 

[Biffa Bacon]

97% of regular gamblers lose over the long term. Of the other 3% a third of those make enough to do it for a living & have no other source of income. I'm not in that section.

I am in the other 2 thirds though in that i show an overall profit. Or at least I have done for the past 20 years. The 20 years before that were a learning curve as is acquiring any skill. In those days I only bet occasionally on certain events & it was all a bit hit & miss. But I paid attention & learned from the mistakes.

It became a more serious pursuit after the turn of the century when bookmakers went online in a serious way & Betfair started. The ability to place lay bets & therefore trade out of bad positions & limit losses made a huge difference. Also the appearance of the Asian handicap markets increased opportunities, as did the over/under markets. They all opened up avenues for betting that hadn't existed previously. Thats when it took off. I started keeping records from 2005 onwards.

Since 2005 the total profit figure stands at a shade over 42 grand. I record a final figure for every year on new years day after the Cheltenham race meeting that day.

2005 wasn't a full year as I made the record keeping decision in the summer but over the whole span of the years it works out to roughly £2300 as an average profit per year. The biggest one off stake was £50. The vast majority are £20 either as a straight win or a tenner e/w on horses. Usually £25 on a football bet. I rarely bet on 1x2 results markets, it's normally a handicap score bet or an over/under goals bet. betting on football is low margin so it takes a long time to build a profit total. Horses give bigger returns but bigger risks. It's all about the odds & your own personal appetite for risk. I'm quite conservative in that regard. Happy to build a bank slowly.
In 2012 I had 17 bookmaker accounts. I now have 4 having been either heavily restricted or outright banned by the others. So i use the exchanges a lot now.
I did shed a nostalgic tear at losing my Ladbrokes account, which I'd held since it was a telephone account opened on my 18th birthday.

This year has been below average & as of this minute looks like being about £1800 up unless i nab a big winner at the weekend.

Biggest ever win was £6000 on a combination 5-fold & Yankee on 17/02/2016. It would have been £10400 if I hadn't hedged out on the 12/1 shot running for me in the last, which of course went on to win.
Total stake on that was £31 (26 x £1 on the Yankee & a fiver on the 5-fold) Unsurprisingly 2016 was my best ever year. Despite not betting on us to win the ****ing league !

Over the years it's paid for half a dozen very nice holidays, some nice turntables, a lot of great days out at sporting events, presents for stepchildren & some extremely debauched awaydays that are best left unmentioned.

Oh. & a very nice Ozwald Boateng suit that I just wanted as my only ever designer clothing treat. It's not something that usually remotely interests me but this thing was ****ing ridiculous & I had to have it. 700 quid.

Since sold on as:

a) I am now XL as opposed to L

b) a 57 year old man in an Imperial Purple suit can only ever look a ****.

The trick is to regard it as a hobby or interest. Since 2005 I haven't made a deposit to a bookies account other than when I've had one closed down or restricted & had to withdraw & move it to another one. So it exists entirely seperately to any other money I might have & doesn't affect my weekly/monthly budget in any way. Thats the key really. The rises & falls over time have no effect on the rest of my life.

I also don't have expensive tastes (other than that suit) So don't get tempted to spunk profits on pointless tat. I live in council accomodation so my rent is low & secure. I don't buy labels (apart from the suit!) I don't drive. Had a bike licence for a long time but due to illness can no longer ride so that expense is gone too.

Put all that together & I've done very well.

BUT...anyone asking me for tips can **** right off. You have to be prepared to lose £150 quid in an afternoon & come back tomorrow & I refuse to be responsible for anyone else having a shit day !

That's a fair enough summary and well done on making it work for you, the return on time invested wouldn't work for me, that's why I don't gamble and would be in the 97% if I did

 

[big_mac4824]

I think having a striker like Vardy has helped us out no end in relation to Xg, I think he has to be up there as one of the most prolific strikers when it comes to chances and goals scored? I enjoy a flutter every weekend and I never try to win back on a loss when it is gone it is gone. I was caught out by the Sky Bet club i.e ensuring that I placed 25£ a week to win a free 5£ bet however, I soon learned from that gimmick still I am normally 5-10£ down every season but it is good fun.

 

[give_us_a_wave]

Reminds me of the old adage; There's lies, damned lies and then Statistics!

Just out of interest, are you referring to the relevance of XG as a metric with that statement? I'm pretty sure that's what you meant. But you can see why i have to ask.

 

[give_us_a_wave]

Reminds me of other old adages ; Stick to what you know, do your research, be patient and learn from your mistakes. Well done give_us_a_wave and thank you for a very interesting life-story.

Cheers

 

[give_us_a_wave]

I love this post.

Cheers. Just read it back myself & thought "**** me, I do go on " Surprised you got to the end without falling asleep to be honest !

 

[Blaarev]

Cheers. Just read it back myself & thought "**** me, I do go on " Surprised you got to the end without falling asleep to be honest !

You went on, but in a good way.

 

[FOX Franks]

97% of regular gamblers lose over the long term. Of the other 3% a third of those make enough to do it for a living & have no other source of income. I'm not in that section.

I am in the other 2 thirds though in that i show an overall profit. Or at least I have done for the past 20 years. The 20 years before that were a learning curve as is acquiring any skill. In those days I only bet occasionally on certain events & it was all a bit hit & miss. But I paid attention & learned from the mistakes.

It became a more serious pursuit after the turn of the century when bookmakers went online in a serious way & Betfair started. The ability to place lay bets & therefore trade out of bad positions & limit losses made a huge difference. Also the appearance of the Asian handicap markets increased opportunities, as did the over/under markets. They all opened up avenues for betting that hadn't existed previously. Thats when it took off. I started keeping records from 2005 onwards.

Since 2005 the total profit figure stands at a shade over 42 grand. I record a final figure for every year on new years day after the Cheltenham race meeting that day.

2005 wasn't a full year as I made the record keeping decision in the summer but over the whole span of the years it works out to roughly £2300 as an average profit per year. The biggest one off stake was £50. The vast majority are £20 either as a straight win or a tenner e/w on horses. Usually £25 on a football bet. I rarely bet on 1x2 results markets, it's normally a handicap score bet or an over/under goals bet. betting on football is low margin so it takes a long time to build a profit total. Horses give bigger returns but bigger risks. It's all about the odds & your own personal appetite for risk. I'm quite conservative in that regard. Happy to build a bank slowly.
In 2012 I had 17 bookmaker accounts. I now have 4 having been either heavily restricted or outright banned by the others. So i use the exchanges a lot now.
I did shed a nostalgic tear at losing my Ladbrokes account, which I'd held since it was a telephone account opened on my 18th birthday.

This year has been below average & as of this minute looks like being about £1800 up unless i nab a big winner at the weekend.

Biggest ever win was £6000 on a combination 5-fold & Yankee on 17/02/2016. It would have been £10400 if I hadn't hedged out on the 12/1 shot running for me in the last, which of course went on to win.
Total stake on that was £31 (26 x £1 on the Yankee & a fiver on the 5-fold) Unsurprisingly 2016 was my best ever year. Despite not betting on us to win the ****ing league !

Over the years it's paid for half a dozen very nice holidays, some nice turntables, a lot of great days out at sporting events, presents for stepchildren & some extremely debauched awaydays that are best left unmentioned.

Oh. & a very nice Ozwald Boateng suit that I just wanted as my only ever designer clothing treat. It's not something that usually remotely interests me but this thing was ****ing ridiculous & I had to have it. 700 quid.

Since sold on as:

a) I am now XL as opposed to L

b) a 57 year old man in an Imperial Purple suit can only ever look a ****.

The trick is to regard it as a hobby or interest. Since 2005 I haven't made a deposit to a bookies account other than when I've had one closed down or restricted & had to withdraw & move it to another one. So it exists entirely seperately to any other money I might have & doesn't affect my weekly/monthly budget in any way. Thats the key really. The rises & falls over time have no effect on the rest of my life.

I also don't have expensive tastes (other than that suit) So don't get tempted to spunk profits on pointless tat. I live in council accomodation so my rent is low & secure. I don't buy labels (apart from the suit!) I don't drive. Had a bike licence for a long time but due to illness can no longer ride so that expense is gone too.

Put all that together & I've done very well.

BUT...anyone asking me for tips can **** right off. You have to be prepared to lose £150 quid in an afternoon & come back tomorrow & I refuse to be responsible for anyone else having a shit day !

Absolutely fascinating stuff.