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Brown Nose tries idiot betting . . .

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Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
Now I never bet on football. In fact, I only ever bet on the Grand National. I look at bookmakers and see them win and think that betting is a mug's game (see Joe Fox and his absurd system(s)).

However, I do like to play (winning) poker and I do like to challenge myself against people who think they know better.

Now, I watched this betting programme on BBC1 recently and thought that the idiots that set the betting markets seemed to know the lean side of feck all so I'm not exactly taking on a genius set of algorithms or something.

This has led me to attempt a small series of football bets.

For the first forty matches of the season, effectively August's fixtures, I'm betting on the first goalscorer in each Premier League game. I'm betting £2.50 e/w each time so my total outlay is £200. I'm doing it with Paddy Power as their e/w odds and rules appeared to me to be the most favourable. I may have got this very wrong?

On the first round of fixtures, I 'invested' £50 and got £38.33 back. So, I'm already £11.67 down. For the interest of one or two others(?), I thought I'd post my second week predictions:

Liverpool v Bournemouth - A Lallana @ 15/2 -£5.00
Man City v Chelsea - E Hazard @ 9/1 -£5.00
Crystal Palace v Arsenal - S Cazorla @ 10/1 -£5.00
West Ham v Leicester - D Sakho @ 11/2 -£5.00
Watford v West Brom - J Lescott @ 33/1 -£5.00
Tottenham v Stoke - C Eriksen @ 11/2 -£5.00
Swansea v Newcastle - G Sigurdsson @ 7/1 -£5.00
Sunderland v Norwich - L Grabban @ 13/2 -£5.00
Southampton v Everton - J Rodriguez @ 11/2 -£5.00
Aston Villa v Man Utd - J Mata @ 13/2 -£5.00

My general approach with selections is to back someone realistic and with decent looking odds.

I can vouch for the fact that these bets have led me to focus/watch matches with a heightened interest. In week one, one of my picks scored first and two were an inch from scoring first and this made my weekend viewing much more exciting. Of course, if my approach is a losing one, I will soon give up and my interest will fade.

This may well all prove to be a folly but I would be interested in anyone else's football bets or comments on my choice of bet type/amount etc. What I'm really looking for is something to bet on in Premier League matches that I can make a small profit at. That way, I get the challenge, the enjoyment/interest and the smug satisfaction.
 

homer

Well-Known Member
I do something similar, but stick to the 'player to score anytime' odds instead of the 'first goal scorer'

The odds are obviously much shorter, but still well worth the dabble - e.g. I had Mahrez to score anytime last weekend, which I think was about 7/2 instead of about 16/1 to be the first scorer. Nothing more annoying than your chosen player scoring second or third in the game, rather than first

If you have the guts to bet high enough stakes it can be quite profitable
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
I do something similar, but stick to the 'player to score anytime' odds instead of the 'first goal scorer'

The odds are obviously much shorter, but still well worth the dabble - e.g. I had Mahrez to score anytime last weekend, which I think was about 7/2 instead of about 16/1 to be the first scorer. Nothing more annoying than your chosen player scoring second or third in the game, rather than first

If you have the guts to bet high enough stakes it can be quite profitable
Thanks for that homer, that's exactly the sort of thing I'm interested in knowing more about. The e/w first goalscorer works in much the same way as an anytime goalscorer does it not? Except that it has the edge towards the first goal, which I think I prefer from an excitement perspective.

If you don't mind me asking, what do you tend to bet/return with the anytime wagers?

Also, the point about high stakes interests me. What sort of bet do you mean? For example, I fully expected Man City to win convincingly last night (despite them taking on the genius that is TP - ;)) so are you talking about a large bet on a strong favourite on the basis that they will win nine times in ten and this profit should offset the odd surprise result?

One thing I really don't find attractive is offsetting lots of bets to cover yourself which I understand can be the most sensible approach but seems too much like hard work for me and would take away much of the fun.
 

pork pie fox

Well-Known Member
I too play poker, I find it much more appealing, as I'm a stats geek, so I like the analytical side of things.

I do, however, bet on American Football. I bet on handicap scoring, pick 3 teams and do a straight treble. I have finished "up" every season I've done it.
 

homer

Well-Known Member
I generally pick four or five over a weekend, at about a tenner per bet, certainly no more than twenty - just in for fun, really, and normally land one to cover the bet and a small profit more often than not. If you're in it for cash, rather than fun, then that kind of stake won't be enough
 

FryattFox

Well-Known Member
If you're in it for cash, rather than fun, then that kind of stake won't be enough
And you'll probably end up losing.

Football is one of the hardest sports to make any money on betting, as so many people know it well and it's a huge betting market.

Better to stick to doing it for fun, which it sounds like you're doing, or move to a smaller market (like lower division football or foreign tennis) if you actually want to make money.
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
And you'll probably end up losing.

Football is one of the hardest sports to make any money on betting, as so many people know it well and it's a huge betting market.

Better to stick to doing it for fun, which it sounds like you're doing, or move to a smaller market (like lower division football or foreign tennis) if you actually want to make money.
I'm not interested in making much money from it, I just don't want to lose at it either. My ego won't take being a loser.

Do you mean that football is bad to bet on because the odds aren't favourable? To me, it makes sense to bet on the thing I know most about.
 

pork pie fox

Well-Known Member
I'm not interested in making much money from it, I just don't want to lose at it either. My ego won't take being a loser.

Do you mean that football is bad to bet on because the odds aren't favourable? To me, it makes sense to bet on the thing I know most about.
I know what you're saying, BN, but football is actually quite hard to bet on, as there's so many variables. That why I bet on NFL, as there's only two outcomes (rather than three).
 

FryattFox

Well-Known Member
I'm not interested in making much money from it, I just don't want to lose at it either. My ego won't take being a loser.

Do you mean that football is bad to bet on because the odds aren't favourable? To me, it makes sense to bet on the thing I know most about.
Football has the lowest margins. It doesn't mean that the odds aren't necessarily favourable, it's just you'll have to work harder/get luckier to make a profit.

Like you, it's what I know best and so I have a few bets every now and then. And I prefer the winning feeling, without worrying about the numbers, so usually bet on things worth very low odds.

Good luck though (you'll need it... ;))
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
Early days but had a shocker last week so now down £46.67. Starting to think this market is a bad one. I've tried to resist sticking with the same player for another week to avoid

This weeks selections are as follows:

Arsenal v Liverpool - A Ramsey @ 7/1
Watford v Southampton - S Mane @ 6/1
Everton v Man City - Y Toure @ 13/2
West Brom v Chelsea - E Hazard @ 5/1
West Ham v Bournemouth - D Payet @ 6/1
Sunderland v Swansea - J Montero @ 10/1
Norwich v Stoke - M Diouf @ 13/2
Leicester v Tottenham - R Huth @ 33/1
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa - Y Cabaye @ 9/1
Man Utd v Newcastle - M Depay @ 9/2
 

Lako42

Well-Known Member
BN

Change market, trust me.

I would stick on 3 team accu each week with fairly decent stake. Much higher chance of a win if you choose wisely.
 

Motown Fox

Well-Known Member
You should have a meet with Joe Fox as I hear he's at the match on Saturday.
I'm sure he'll have some betting tips he can share with you.
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
BN

Change market, trust me.

I would stick on 3 team accu each week with fairly decent stake. Much higher chance of a win if you choose wisely.
You are absolutely right. But I won't stop this until I've done the first four rounds of matches, just to complete the experiment. Then I'm on the look out another football market so will bear your recommendation in mind.
 

give_us_a_wave

Well-Known Member
First goalscorer is a bet bookies absolutely love.That's why they push it so hard in their advertising.I only ever bet on it in special circumstances.This Monday was one of those.Benteke all out to make a mark in his first home game & Bournemouth being a bit suspect in the centre of defense.I nailed it but as I said,exceptional circumstances (plus I'd had a good day on the horses so it was free money) I'd stick with well researched accas if I were you & never more than a treble.Those bookie offers that say "money back if one of your 5 fold loses" exist for a reason.As a rule of thumb,if it's a bet the bookies advertise a lot,avoid it like the plague.
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
This is a shambolic experiment. I can vouch for the fact that betting on first goalscorer is a foolish thing to do.

That said, had Ramsey's goal counted (as it should) on Monday, I'd have been in profit for the week. As it was, one right out of ten still led to a £23.33 loss. Total loss now £70. There is some come back though as PP appear to be throwing free bets at me like there is no tomorrow. My inbox is full of such offers and I need to sort through them. Apparently, they 'like the look of me'. If ever someone was saying 'we know a mug when we see one', that's it.

In typically stubborn fashion, I will complete the shambles for one final week as I'd originally intended. Then my scheme changes and I'm looking for a September plan. I'll look into accumulators.

Anyway, my final failures:

Swansea v Man Utd - M Fellaini @ 10/1
Southampton v Norwich - C Jerome @ 15/2
Tottenham v Everton - S Coleman @ 20/1
Stoke v West Brom - S Rondon @ 15/2
Man City v Watford - A Kolarov @ 20/1
Liverpool v West Ham - C Benteke @ 3/1
Chelsea v Crystal Palace - Diego Costa @ 7/2
Bournemouth v Leicester - R Huth @ 40/1
Aston Villa v Sunderland - J Defoe @ 8/1
Newcastle v Arsenal - F Thauvin @ 12/1
 

fox58

Well-Known Member
In typically stubborn fashion, I will complete the shambles for one final week as I'd originally intended. Then my scheme changes and I'm looking for a September plan. I'll look into accumulators.

1
I seem to recall someone making a tidy sum backing goalless draws
 

M17TT C

Well-Known Member
I'm liking both teams to score at the moment.

Not had a winner yet this year but only needed Watford and Sheff Utd to score in the week for £250 from a quid and picking from the lower leagues seems to be the best, well apart from us of course!

Best thing I like about it is the bet is never lost until the games finish. With teams to win or first goal scorer your bet can be off inside 10 mins but with both teams to score, there is always a possibility when the game is still on.

If you want even bigger odds you could go for both teams to score and pick the winner but I prefer just to stick to the scoring only to keep the bet alive longer.

Plus I love starting to support random teams with 10 mins to go!
 
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Premier League

P Pld Pts
Liverpool 27  79
Manchester City 27  57
Leicester 27  50
Chelsea 27  44
Manchester Utd 27  41
Tottenham  27  40
Sheffield Utd 27  40
Wolves 27  39
Arsenal 27  37
10 Burnley 27  37
11 Everton 27  36
12 Southampton 27  34
13 Palace 27  33
14 Newcastle Utd 27  31
15 Brighton 27  28
16 Bournemouth 27  26
17 Aston Villa 27  25
18 West Ham Utd 27  24
19 Watford 27  24
20 Norwich City 27  18

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