Expected Goals (xG)

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The Vardy goal/shot rate is outstanding, but I’m fairly certain this is true (but not at 70%) most years. In our slumps, when Vardy doesn’t score, he generally hasn’t had the ball. Pretty sure his goal/shot ratio would stack up well since 2015.
 
glyn said:
The Vardy goal/shot rate is outstanding, but I’m fairly certain this is true (but not at 70%) most years. In our slumps, when Vardy doesn’t score, he generally hasn’t had the ball. Pretty sure his goal/shot ratio would stack up well since 2015.
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Personally thought he’d missed a few chances this season
 
Leicester 2-1 Burnley

We beat the xG in this game as well, continuing our trend of defying the statisticians.

We had an xG of 0.83, Burnley had an xG 1.80.

The best three chances in the match fell to Burnley and they missed them all - two from Wood and one from Tarkowski. Only 16% of our shots were on target whereas 31% of Burnley's chances were on target.
 
Brown Nose said:
Leicester 2-1 Burnley

We beat the xG in this game as well, continuing our trend of defying the statisticians.

We had an xG of 0.83, Burnley had an xG 1.80.

The best three chances in the match fell to Burnley and they missed them all - two from Wood and one from Tarkowski. Only 16% of our shots were on target whereas 31% of Burnley's chances were on target.
Click to expand...
Wow we really must stop losing all these hypothetical games
 
So our performance beat our performance but not the performance of the team that lost because their performance was better than the performance of the team that won even though they lost. Makes perfect sense.

You've got too much time on your hands, son.
 
I've only just watched the 3 minute highlights on the sky app and my expected goals for us would be at least 3 from that. Must be the VAR ****s running this xg shit too.
 
fitz said:
I've only just watched the 3 minute highlights on the sky app and my expected goals for us would be at least 3 from that. Must be the VAR ****s running this xg shit too.
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Must admit I thought we had some good chances. The Barnes, then Maddison one in the first half was a really good chance, for example. Cags could have scored from a corner, and if either of the two goals had been missed they’d have been poor efforts.
 
Miles Away said:
Must admit I thought we had some good chances. The Barnes, then Maddison one in the first half was a really good chance, for example. Cags could have scored from a corner, and if either of the two goals had been missed they’d have been poor efforts.
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The Madders one was definitely an expected goal for me. Perhaps xg is just there to make me appreciate my high expectations are unreasonable.
 
If you keep saying something enough times, you actually believe it to be the truth
Or, some sort of bollox.
 
Here’s a challenge for you, BN: Create a Prediction League in here for xG. A certain winner!
 
If you get completely bored, BN, feel free to look at our league winning year, and let us know how our xG was over the season.
You don’t have to do it game by game, but every 1/4 would suffice ;)
 
First 9 games in 2015/16 saw the following actual results/points:

WWDDWDLWD (16 points)

xG for the same 9 games was:

WWLWDDLWW (17 points)
 
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P Pld Pts
1Liverpool1128
2Manchester C  1123
3Chelsea1119
4Arsenal1119
5Nottm F1119
6Brighton1119
7Fulham1118
8Newcastle1118
9Aston Villa1118
10Tottenham 1116
11Brentford1116
12Bournemouth1115
13Manchester U1115
14West Ham1112
15Leicester1110
16Everton1110
17Ipswich118
18Palace117
19Wolves116
20Southampton114

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