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Is a top four finish achievable or a pipe dream?

big_mac4824

Well-Known Member
If we compare the equivalent results this season to last season (substituting Sheff Utd/Fulham), then we're one point ahead. Whilst our start is heartening, we've not done anything special yet.

Wolves H -2 points
Chelsea A -2 points
Sheff Utd A +2 points
Bournemouth H 0 points
Man Utd A 0 points
Spurs H +3 points

A fourth place finish has required an average of 72 points over the last five seasons. That's 1.89 points per game. Our current rate is 1.83.
Do you think 72 points will be required this season bearing in mind most of the teams are about the same level?
 

sparky79

Well-Known Member
Theres no reason we shouldnt be aiming at top 4. We have a directly comparable 1st XI to both chelsea and manure in terms of internationals representing top sides, and young british talent. It is a toss up for me.
 

big_mac4824

Well-Known Member
When will be reasonable date to say yes we are capable of a top 4 finish December, January? With all of the usual hoods floundering we need to maximise our chances this season, the Liverpool game will give us a great insight.
 

Miles Away

Well-Known Member
The table is still very tight. Entirely possible we are down to 5th and tied on points with a host of clubs come Saturday evening.

So far what we have achieved is create space between us and the bottom 6 or so.

Not to piss on cornflakes but it’s still very early and the league is incredibly congested at the moment.
 

Magellan

Member
Difficult to see how we will even finish the season when Man Utd take all of the squad and the manager.

I hear they are considering putting an offer in for Top.
If they want everyone they'll have to pay a lot of money. Top dollar, in fact.
 

big_mac4824

Well-Known Member
After this weekend we are still very much in a commanding position and we must capitalise on the usual suspects being so abjectly poor. Our fixtures are slightly kinder after the international break and should see us cement a strong position to challenge in the build up to December.
 

big_mac4824

Well-Known Member
Extract taken from the telegraph

Leicester's goal-scoring is not sustainable
Leicester have looked hugely impressive this season. They have beaten Spurs, drawn with Chelsea, ran Liverpool close this weekend and look the most likely team to break the 'big six' in a good few years.

But despite the positive feeling around Brendan Rodgers' team and their place in the top four as we head into this international break, Leicester will need to improve to maintain their position.They are the fourth-highest scorers in the Premier League with 14 goals, but they don't actually have many chances. They rank mid-table for shots attempted and are surprisingly second-from-bottom for expected goals. Based on the chances they have had, Leicester should only have scored around eight goals this season. The difference of more than six between their expected goals and actual goals is by a distance the biggest in the top flight.

This suggests they are finishing their chances well, or better than the average team would do. That could be the hallmark of a great team, or may hint at something unsustainable up front. Jamie Vardy has only had 12 shots this season, with those chances amounting to 1.96 expected goals, but has scored five times. At 32 years old, presumably at some stage he will suffer a dip in form. The same might be realistic for the whole team.

Perhaps we are punching above our weight or we need to be more direct during games forsaking possession for goal scoring opportunities?
 

Brown Nose

Well-Known Member
I don't understand XG.

Motd said that our XG against Liverpool was something like 0.2. Yet Maddison scored when clear in front of goal, Vardy was in on goal and had a poor touch, and Praet hit a shot an inch wide.

Why were none of those chances?

Liverpool had an XG of something like 3.6(?) but I don't remember Schmeichel making a difficult save in the match. Liverpool had good situations but certainly didn't miss sitters.

Anyone?
 
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Premier League

P Pld Pts
Liverpool  24
Manchester City  16
Arsenal  15
Leicester  14
Chelsea  14
Palace  14
Burnley  12
West Ham Utd  12
Tottenham   11
10 Bournemouth  11
11 Wolves  10
12 Manchester Utd  9
13 Sheffield Utd  9
14 Brighton  9
15 Aston Villa  8
16 Newcastle Utd  8
17 Southampton  7
18 Everton  7
19 Norwich City  6
20 Watford  3
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