Is a top four finish achievable or a pipe dream?

[M17TT C]

It's just people trying to statisise everything about football using the Moneyball approach from baseball.

It works for baseball as things are a lot simpler with binary outcomes but it's doesn't quite work the same in football.

Still doesn't stop the Yanks though!

 

[Feriol]

Premier League: 'Expected goals' tells us whether a player really should have scored

We've all said 'he should have scored from there'. But now, for the first time, we can say with certainty whether a chance really is as good as we think.

www.bbc.co.uk

Article on how xg is worked out.

It seems to me the biggest flaw is it doesn't consider who the chance falls to.

 

[M17TT C]

Premier League: 'Expected goals' tells us whether a player really should have scored

We've all said 'he should have scored from there'. But now, for the first time, we can say with certainty whether a chance really is as good as we think.

www.bbc.co.uk

Article on how xg is worked out.

It seems to me the biggest flaw is it doesn't consider who the chance falls to.

Or who the goalkeeper is.

Or if it was taken with the player stronger or weaker foot.

Or the form of the player with the attempt.

It's bollocks really.

 

[fitz]

Or who the goalkeeper is.

Or if it was taken with the player stronger or weaker foot.

Or the form of the player with the attempt.

It's bollocks really.

Pretty much aye

 

[fitz]

I'm fairly sure there was a few stats kicking about to show how our 2015/16 start wasn't sustainable....got pretty desperate too.

 

[Miles Away]

It has allowed bettors to be more informed.

Ultimately all advanced stats ladder back to that.

If you had a sustained betting strategy using Xg over an extended period of time you are pretty likely to be rewarded. It’s not much cop in insulation, but over the aggregate it’s a handy tool.

 

[Blue Maniac]

Is there a league table of goals:xg? Where would we be?

 

[homer]

Is there a league table of goals:xg? Where would we be?

In a virtual statistical world of totally made up horseshit

 

[FOX Franks]

Is there a league table of goals:xg? Where would we be?

Which way round?
If goals>xG is a good thing, we’d be first

Similarly t’other way

 

[Blue Maniac]

In a virtual statistical world of totally made up horseshit

Nonsense. We need a graph showing smashing bunches of lads per bus wank.

 

[pork pie fox]

I’ve got a degree in maths, mostly specialising in statistics. I find this an odd metric.

 

[tedfoxxx]

I’ve got a degree in maths, mostly specialising in statistics. I find this an odd metric.

You may have a degree in maths but do you have a shit tactics blog? Or do you appear on podcasts stroking your chin and being dry?

 

[pork pie fox]

You may have a degree in maths but do you have a shit tactics blog? Or do you appear on podcasts stroking your chin and being dry?

No. I may be a geek, but I’m not that nerdy.

 

[big_mac4824]

Surely this is just a measure of whether you’ve got more clinical strikers than the national average?

Highlights just how important Vardy is to us and that we need to get the ball to him as much as possible. The nightmare is if he gets injured, other than Perez the rest is pretty much "dog toffee" as far as strikers go.

 

[Lako42]

Highlights that we are more patient in out buildup play and don't just take shots for the sake of it.

Pretty much backs up how our team has evolved. We keep the ball and await for the right opportunity to arise. It's the sign of a good team.

 

[GreenFox]

I would also take into account the bias of the media in relation to the top 6, we as fans know OUR Club, rather than the take a peek every so often media who see us as a novelty and treat us as such.
We have players that are only finding their feet after joining us in the Summer and We see their growth from week to week.

Quoting Vardys age is meaningful to their article but the facts tell a different story to our boys attention to detail and how he is actually getting the best out of his body and improving with age

We are ruffling a few feathers and the mainstream media will do anything to sow doubt, but WE KNOW BETTER

 

[big_mac4824]

So are next three games are

Southampton - away
Palace - Home
Arsenal - away

Hopefully we can get a minimum of 6 points from these three most notably 3 points off Arsenal, we will be sat nicely in the top four leading into the next international break. As I have said many times the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd are bang average.

 

[Blaarev]

So are next three games are

Southampton - away
Palace - Home
Arsenal - away

Hopefully we can get a minimum of 6 points from these three most notably 3 points off Arsenal, we will be sat nicely in the top four leading into the next international break. As I have said many times the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd are bang average.

Away, away, home

 

[camberwell fox]

Away, away, home

Is that a song?

 

[Blaarev]

Is that a song?

A TV series