Latest odds for promotion

[LCFCmonkey]

I fail to understand properly why having the second leg at home results in an advantage.

 

[camberwell fox]

I fail to understand properly why having the second leg at home results in an advantage.

I don't know about whether this effects the odds but i would imagine knowing exactly what you need to do at home after the first leg gives the home team a slight edge.

The 1st leg is always a bit more cagey as both teams don't know what they need to do to achieve the final (save win by a large margin)...?

 

[Uncle Connolly]

Nottingham Forest 5/2
Cardiff City 5/2
Leicester City 3
Blackpool 5
Swansea City 14

So, if you disregard the home advantage (which I'd suggest should lengthen the odds by about 1.5), it looks like the bookies have made us favourites.

Says it all really.

If you ignore the advantage of having a brain, you come up with something like this.

 

[Darth Vodka]

I don't think that is true. It may be that the 3rd (or 4th in League Two) goes through more than any other individual play-off club - but that is not the same as going through "most of the time".

more often than the others then, hair splitter

 

[lazzer]

In the last ten years 6 winners played away first leg and 4 played at home. Also in the last twenty years the teams that have finished

3rd - 7 times
4th -3 times
5th- 6times
6th 4 -times.

Yes its a been a busy old day . :icon_lol:

 

[Motown Fox]

In the last ten years 6 winners played away first leg and 4 played at home. Also in the last twenty years the teams that have finished

3rd - 7 times
4th -3 times
5th- 6times
6th 4 -times.

Yes its a been a busy old day . :icon_lol:

5th could be in with an equaliser then:icon_wink

 

[Darth Vodka]

In the last ten years 6 winners played away first leg and 4 played at home. Also in the last twenty years the teams that have finished

3rd - 7 times
4th -3 times
5th- 6times
6th 4 -times.

Yes its a been a busy old day . :icon_lol:

add in the other divs (i've already done it in another thread)

 

[RHYDAL]

In the last ten years 6 winners played away first leg and 4 played at home. Also in the last twenty years the teams that have finished

3rd - 7 times
4th -3 times
5th- 6times
6th 4 -times.

Yes its a been a busy old day . :icon_lol:

4th is long overdue. :icon_bigg

 

[camberwell fox]

er....utter rubbish, the 3rd team goes through most of the time

2008 - 2009 Burnley 5th
2007 - 2008 Hull 3rd
2006 - 2007 WBA 4th
2005 - 2006 Watford 3rd
2004 - 2005 W Ham 6th
2003 - 2004 C Palace 6th
2002 - 2003 Reading 4th
2001 - 2002 Birming 5th
2000 - 2001 Bolton 3rd

I make it

3rd place 3 times
4th place twice
5th place twice
6th place twice

Hardly ''nearly always''...

 

[Matt_B]

2008 - 2009 Burnley 5th
2007 - 2008 Hull 3rd
2006 - 2007 WBA 4th
2005 - 2006 Watford 3rd
2004 - 2005 W Ham 6th
2003 - 2004 C Palace 6th
2002 - 2003 Reading 4th
2001 - 2002 Birming 5th
2000 - 2001 Bolton 3rd

I make it

3rd place 3 times
4th place twice
5th place twice
6th place twice

Hardly ''nearly always''...

Lose a mark for missing the chance to use the word thrice

 

[lazzer]

2008 - 2009 Burnley 5th
2007 - 2008 Hull 3rd
2006 - 2007 WBA 4th
2005 - 2006 Watford 3rd
2004 - 2005 W Ham 6th
2003 - 2004 C Palace 6th
2002 - 2003 Reading 4th
2001 - 2002 Birming 5th
2000 - 2001 Bolton 3rd

I make it

3rd place 3 times
4th place twice
5th place twice
6th place twice

Hardly ''nearly always''...

Sheep 3rd makes third thrice :icon_bigg

 

[Blue Maniac]

Lose a mark for missing the chance to use the word thrice

:icon_lol:

 

[Darth Vodka]

Hardly ''nearly always''...

who you quoting?

the 3rd placed team goes through more often than the others

3rd place: 29
4th: 11
5th: 15
6th 13

from all divs (adjusting if 3 go up automatically)

 

[RHYDAL]

who you quoting?

the 3rd placed team goes through more often than the others

3rd place: 29
4th: 11
5th: 15
6th 13

from all divs (adjusting if 3 go up automatically)

3rd place 29 < others 39

 

[Darth Vodka]

3rd place 29 < others 39

you know what i mean

 

[RHYDAL]

you know what i mean

In summary, form suggests that you are approximately twice as likely to go up if you finish third, than if you finish in another play-off position.

 

[SJN-Fox]

But the stats suggest that you are more likely to go up by not finishing third. :icon_bigg

 

[camberwell fox]

Lose a mark for missing the chance to use the word thrice

Sheep 3rd makes third thrice :icon_bigg

:icon_lol:

Oh feck...thrice. :icon_redf:icon_redf:icon_bigg

 

[camberwell fox]

who you quoting?

the 3rd placed team goes through more often than the others

3rd place: 29
4th: 11
5th: 15
6th 13

from all divs (adjusting if 3 go up automatically)

Well, considering i quoted you, why would you therefore need confirmation again??? :icon_wink

 

[Darth Vodka]

Well, considering i quoted you, why would you therefore need confirmation again??? :icon_wink

so when did i said "nearly always" ?