Why Leicester are desperate not to face a PSR points deduction this season
By
Rob Tanner
Leicester City have been bullish in their response to the Premier League referring them to an independent commission to face charges over
breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR).
Initially, they vowed to defend themselves and other clubs against “unlawful acts by the football authorities”; then, after the words, came the actions —
legal proceedings against both the Premier League and the English Football League, who have imposed a registration ban on the club, effectively a transfer embargo. By any standards, it was a bold step.
With six weeks of the season left and Leicester second in the Championship, trailing Leeds United on goal difference but with a game in hand, the promotion battle was draining enough without Thursday’s charges being levied. But Leicester are determined to fight them.
The full extent of the club’s alleged breaking of PSR remains unclear. A fuller picture will begin to emerge when
Leicester’s accounts for the 2022-23 season, in which they were relegated, are published at the end of March.
“It seems clear they have breached and by my model, they have breached by in excess of £40m,” says football finance expert Stefan Borson. “The question mark is James Maddison’s (£40m) deal to Tottenham, which falls right on the edge of the (financial) years. That is good because they can say to the
Premier League, ‘If we had sold Maddison the day before we wouldn’t breach by much at all’. That could be argued to be mitigation. The problem is they will breach again by quite a lot for this season.”
There appears to be no hard and fast rule on how heavy the Premier League sanction should be. Everton were given a 10-point deduction this season and argued it down to six on appeal. Nottingham Forest were given a four-point sanction on the basis they were compliant, but they may still appeal.
It seems clear Leicester are likely to get a points deduction, expected to be at least six points – it is just a question of when. That may not be in their hands, although their challenge to the authorities will mean a lengthy delay, likely to be well into next season.
But the question for Leicester may be when is it better to take that points deduction?
Next season, when they could be in the Premier League and any sanction would severely dent their survival hopes?
Or now, in the Championship, and hope they can still scramble into the automatic promotion spots? If they failed, they would still have the fall-back option of the play-offs, but they would be risking promotion.
“It seems too late for that,” says Borson. “I can’t see how they could get this done by the end of the season and, anyway, jeopardising promotion seems crazy.
“The Premier League has wanted same-season punishment all along, but the surprise is we are at the end of March and they hadn’t started a process yet. If they had started the process in January, you would have struggled to get everything done by the end of the season. How do they think they can get it done in six weeks? It’s impossible.
“The only way is if all the parties are friendly with each other and they agree to an accelerated process without an appeal. Or, alternatively, an agreed settlement that can be negotiated and then signed off by an independent commission that deems it to be fair. That clearly doesn’t seem to be the case here. Why would Leicester agree to that? It would be a disaster for them.”
Leicester seem to be doing everything they can to make it difficult for the Premier League to navigate the disciplinary process this season. They are expected to ask for a Rule K arbitration hearing (the FA system for settling disputes) to get a ruling on whether the Premier League has the right to charge and sanction them this season, which will prolong the process.
Leicester obviously prefer the latter if they cannot mount a successful defence. They would prefer to be back in the Premier League and have a slice of the television revenue, and the other income they lost through relegation, to give them more time to streamline their financial model
Following relegation, having had the Premier League’s seventh-highest playing budget, it would be almost impossible to comply with the tighter restrictions in the EFL for a second season without dramatic action and cost-cutting by the club.
To stop Leicester from becoming a model for clubs who — in their eyes –— want to flaunt the rules and gamble on getting straight back up, the EFL has tried to impose a business plan on the club, which would have constrained their budget and resulted in the sale of players and other cuts. Having lost that case, the EFL has now imposed a registration ban.
The EFL did so in the expectation that Leicester would breach again this season. That means it will push hard for a further charge, even if Leicester go up, meaning the club could face two charges in one season like Everton have this campaign.
A possible double-figure points deficit would be a huge hurdle to overcome, but with an increased budget they may feel they would at least have a fighting chance. Should they fail, they would be better prepared to meet the more stringent EFL regulations in 2025-26, if they still exist in their present form.
Another unknown is what form PSR may take from this summer, when the regulations are expected to change. If Leicester are a Premier League club, the new rules may leave them more wriggle room.
However, there isn’t just the threat of double sanctions. If Leicester go up and are proven to have breached PSR, there is the spectre of litigation from their rivals, who may feel they have a case to pursue if they can prove Leicester broke the rules to give themselves the best chance of going straight back up.
Leicester may argue they didn’t get a competitive advantage in 2022-23 given they were relegated, but if they get promoted in May having breached spending limits, they will have gained an unfair advantage.
But, as Borson points out, “There are very few ways in which clubs could sue because they have all agreed to these rules within the leagues. In the Premier League, you can’t just take clubs to court. You have to do it through the Premier League processes.”
In choosing a confrontational approach — rather than adopting a more conciliatory tone, admitting breaches and offering mitigation — Leicester have upset both leagues and will not have many sympathisers from fellow clubs.
Upsetting rivals, however, would be the least of Leicester’s problems if they are not back in the Premier League next season. Spending another season in the EFL, under the business plan the authorities seem determined to impose on them, would mean Leicester having to effectively start afresh. It could take several years for them to be in a position to go back to the Premier League, where they had aspired to challenge the elite of English football.
It is a cautionary tale for other aspirational clubs, who may think under the present PSR rules they must now budget for the worst-case scenario instead. That is why Leicester have decided to fight so hard and, more importantly, for so long against the Premier League’s charge.
“To say the league is acting unlawfully and outside its jurisdiction is a big call and a clear pointer they are thinking about arbitration, and if need be going to the High Court, to say the Premier League is effectively acting beyond its legal rights,” adds Borson. “The only club that did that is Manchester City. The thing with that sort of challenge is it will take months.
“The problem they have is that we have seen the only way to get mitigation and a reduced punishment is by not resisting, accepting the charge and the guilt, and sending it to an independent commission as soon as possible. In that scenario, you can claim a 25 to 30 per cent reduction in the sanction, like the Forest case.
“The bottom line is this is all unchartered territory. No one actually knows and anyone who tries to say they know definitively how this will be called are talking nonsense.”