Blaarev
Well-Known Member
Would be fun, wouldn’t it?
Points Tracker 2019/20
- Thread starter camberwell fox
- Start date
- Status
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
Fifteen games in. How does our record compare to previous seasons?
19/20 - W11 D2 L2 F35 A9 P35
18/19 - W6 D4 L5 F21 A18 P22
17/18 - W5 D5 L5 F20 A20 P20
16/17 - W4 D4 L7 F21 A26 P16
15/16 - W9 D5 L1 F32 A21 P32
14/15 - W2 D4 L9 F15 A26 P10
Most wins, most goals, fewest conceded, most points. As many wins as the last two seasons combined at this stage. What stands out from 15/16 is how much better we are defensively this year.
There are some similarities to the 17/18 league table. That year, Man City raced away chased by Man Utd. For Man City read Liverpool and for Man Utd read Leicester.
After fifteen matches, we have an identical record to Man Utd that year, down to the exact goals for and against. That year, Man City just powered on winning the league comfortably and Man Utd dropped off a bit finishing a comfortable second with 81 points.
19/20 - W11 D2 L2 F35 A9 P35
18/19 - W6 D4 L5 F21 A18 P22
17/18 - W5 D5 L5 F20 A20 P20
16/17 - W4 D4 L7 F21 A26 P16
15/16 - W9 D5 L1 F32 A21 P32
14/15 - W2 D4 L9 F15 A26 P10
Most wins, most goals, fewest conceded, most points. As many wins as the last two seasons combined at this stage. What stands out from 15/16 is how much better we are defensively this year.
There are some similarities to the 17/18 league table. That year, Man City raced away chased by Man Utd. For Man City read Liverpool and for Man Utd read Leicester.
After fifteen matches, we have an identical record to Man Utd that year, down to the exact goals for and against. That year, Man City just powered on winning the league comfortably and Man Utd dropped off a bit finishing a comfortable second with 81 points.
pork pie fox
Well-Known Member
I’d settle for second, if I’m honest.
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
We're in great shape going into the new year.
We've played everyone once except Liverpool who we're done with. We've played Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away already.
BR says his teams usually do better in the second half of seasons. Our fixtures suggest we should expect a solid return from the next 18 matches.
To finish top four this season, it is likely to take less than 70 points. Quite a few less in all probability. Outside of the current top four, only Spurs, Man Utd and Wolves seem to have the ability to put a run together. None of them have really shown that they'll get much more than 60 points though. It will take a significant and unlikely improvement for any of them get 65 points.
The title is over. Our aspiration now must be to secure 2nd to 4th and go full on for the cups.
If we maintain our current form with an easier set of fixtures ahead, we're looking at 80 points by the end of the season. Most of the probability models have us somewhere in the early to mid 70s but I think we're likely to do a little better and finish with high 70s to low 80s. It would take a serious crash for us to fail to make the top four now.
If for the rest of this season we replicated the miserable underachieving season under Shakespeare/Puel in 17/18, we'd still have a better than 75%+ chance of finishing in the top four.
Casting an eye towards qualification for the Champions League, our coefficient rating means that we'll end up in pot four of the draw irrespective of whether we finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. That will mean that our group will be far more challenging than the one last time round when we got into pot one as Champions. So, we cannot do anything about that. There is little to fight for beyond securing a top four finish.
We do need a strong January in the league but it is soon going to get to the point where we'll be smart to ensure that our best line up is fit and prepared for the cup games more than the league ones. That's where the glory is this season. We're odds on to make one cup final and we need to focus to make sure of that. The FA Cup is also very winnable so we don't want to risk slipping up by going too weak in prioritising league points that will probably not be important.
To put it simply, I'd rather finish 4th and have a couple of cup finals than finish 2nd and have none. It will be interesting to see how BR rotates this month.
We've played everyone once except Liverpool who we're done with. We've played Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away already.
BR says his teams usually do better in the second half of seasons. Our fixtures suggest we should expect a solid return from the next 18 matches.
To finish top four this season, it is likely to take less than 70 points. Quite a few less in all probability. Outside of the current top four, only Spurs, Man Utd and Wolves seem to have the ability to put a run together. None of them have really shown that they'll get much more than 60 points though. It will take a significant and unlikely improvement for any of them get 65 points.
The title is over. Our aspiration now must be to secure 2nd to 4th and go full on for the cups.
If we maintain our current form with an easier set of fixtures ahead, we're looking at 80 points by the end of the season. Most of the probability models have us somewhere in the early to mid 70s but I think we're likely to do a little better and finish with high 70s to low 80s. It would take a serious crash for us to fail to make the top four now.
If for the rest of this season we replicated the miserable underachieving season under Shakespeare/Puel in 17/18, we'd still have a better than 75%+ chance of finishing in the top four.
Casting an eye towards qualification for the Champions League, our coefficient rating means that we'll end up in pot four of the draw irrespective of whether we finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. That will mean that our group will be far more challenging than the one last time round when we got into pot one as Champions. So, we cannot do anything about that. There is little to fight for beyond securing a top four finish.
We do need a strong January in the league but it is soon going to get to the point where we'll be smart to ensure that our best line up is fit and prepared for the cup games more than the league ones. That's where the glory is this season. We're odds on to make one cup final and we need to focus to make sure of that. The FA Cup is also very winnable so we don't want to risk slipping up by going too weak in prioritising league points that will probably not be important.
To put it simply, I'd rather finish 4th and have a couple of cup finals than finish 2nd and have none. It will be interesting to see how BR rotates this month.
pork pie fox
Well-Known Member
I suspect, with Villa struggling as they are at the minute, they’ll be tempted to hold some players back in the semis of the Carabao Cup.
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
Not any more, no.
glyn
Well-Known Member
not since they gave the big leagues the carrot of having all their teams automatically qualify to put off their grand designs of a European League for a few more years
Spurs have just lost at Southampton. Wolves have just lost at Watford. So we're now 15 points clear of those two.
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
doolochfox
Active Member
As a fan, the idea of silverware is very attractive, but also carries an element of short-termism. I wonder how winning a cup and finishing 4th in the league presents itself to a prospective signing? Would they be more encourage to sign for the 2nd best team in the Premier League?
It's a remarkable dilemma that we find ourselves in.
As I type this I find myself in a quandary. Did the Middlesbrough fans enjoy their cup final days out? Do our domestic cups hold any sway any more, both domestically and internationally?
Perhaps it would be better for the club hierarchy and Brendan to go undefeated for the rest of the season.
tedfoxxx
Well-Known Member
Trophies, trophies, trophies. Lift a gorgeous shiny cup, I’d take that over a Champions League second round.
To get both as Leicester fans is a privilege but a it’s all about watching your team win a final or a league campaign.
Graz
Well-Known Member
I'm with you here. I don't think a prospective signing would be attracted by us winning a cup, as much as they would the top 4 - and 2nd probably makes us more attractive than 4th.
We should definitely go all out for the League Cup, but I still think we need to rotate in the early rounds of the cup and take the rest that we have enough strength to get us through. We should be able to beat Wigan for example without our first XI - but there's always the risk and that's the "magic of the cup" isn't it?
But I wouldn't want to see us resting players in the league until we're much closer to the finish line, unless it's for a cup semi/final.
Admittedly, I'd LOVE to see us win the FA Cup - and as a fan in the short term then I'd prefer 3rd/4th and winning the FA Cup than 2nd with no cup. But in the mid to long term, I think a 2nd place finish would help us solidify our place up there with the big boys more, and give us better long term prospects of success.
tedfoxxx
Well-Known Member
Long term prospect of us say.... winning a cup?
Graz
Well-Known Member
Sustaining a place in the top 4 over a number of years, challenging for the title regularly, building runs in the Champions League, etc.
jb5000
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure that the two things are that separate anyway - look at the list of cup winners since the top four qualified for Big Cup, and most of them were already qualified. The things that we will need to grow as a club are to be more attractive to the best players (who both want to win things and test themselves against the best) and increased sponorship revenue (to pay the salaries required by the best players). If qualification is assured (as in the 4th or 2nd scenario), I think that we're more likely to satisfy both of those requirements with the cup win than without
Blue Maniac
Alzheimers sufferer
I’m happy as long as we finish above Coventry.
- Status
| P | Pld | Pts | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Manchester C | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Nottm F | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Brighton | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Fulham | 11 | 18 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 11 | 18 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 11 | 18 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 11 | 16 |
| 11 | Brentford | 11 | 16 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 11 | 15 |
| 13 | Manchester U | 11 | 15 |
| 14 | West Ham | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | Leicester | 11 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton | 11 | 10 |
| 17 | Ipswich | 11 | 8 |
| 18 | Palace | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Wolves | 11 | 6 |
| 20 | Southampton | 11 | 4 |
