The Magic Number...

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Jeff said:
If all of the following things happen we'll be guaranteed a play-off place:

We beat Watford on Saturday.
Blackpool lose to f*rest on Saturday.
Middlesbrough don't beat West Brom on Saturday.
Reading don't beat Newcastle (tomorrow) and Peterborough on Saturday.
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Or Jeff, OR! :018::)
 
:icon_lol:

Forgot about Reading, though their draw on Sat makes it an enormous task for them.
 
Be awesome to get it done this weekend. Would take a lot to go our way though.

Cardiff just need a win themselves to secure their place right? Or a draw and Blackpool lose.

We're so close... be ecstatic when our place is booked! :)
 
David Gwilliam said:
These are very interesting figures. The 5th getting promotion more often than the 4th and 6th could be pure chance on such a small sample. The 3rd place getting promotion 8 times is impressive. Are there any mathematicians on the forum to say whether 8 promotions in such a small sample is statistically significant?
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8 times is not statistically significant at any generally accepted level of significance (it is significant at about the 60% level).

It would need to be more like 10.17 out of 22 times to be significant at the 95% (accepted) level.

Or my Statistics could be woefully inadequate. :102:
 
Of course my preference is that both you and Blackpool make it.:icon_wink
 
doing all the divs, gives me this:-

3rd place: 29
4th: 11
5th: 15
6th 13

i have adjusted for there benig three going up automatically in league 2

so the stats suggest...the 3rd placed team is much more likely to go up and it's fairly even between the rest

no allowing for the differences in points (e.g. if the 3rd place team has romped to third) or whether divs are closer in standard from 3 to 6 either (i'm guessing the lower the league the greater the disparity, dunno)
 
I'd be interested to see current promotion odds if anyone has access to these (I can't from work).

I personally think that Cardiff have the best chance of going up, followed pretty closely by F*rest. I think they have stronger sides than ourselves, Swansea and certainly Blackpool. If Reading / Boro managed to sneak in, I think they would have every chance.
 
Doggie_muz said:
I'd be interested to see current promotion odds if anyone has access to these (I can't from work).

I personally think that Cardiff have the best chance of going up, followed pretty closely by F*rest. I think they have stronger sides than ourselves, Swansea and certainly Blackpool. If Reading / Boro managed to sneak in, I think they would have every chance.
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from http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

Forest: 5/2
Cardiff: 10/3
Leicester 15/4
Swansea: 11/2
Blackpool: 9-1
Reading: 20-1
 
Doggie_muz said:
I personally think that Cardiff have the best chance of going up, followed pretty closely by F*rest. I think they have stronger sides than ourselves, Swansea and certainly Blackpool. If Reading / Boro managed to sneak in, I think they would have every chance.
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On the day it's 22 players, one ball and a referee - anything can happen and league form throughout the season can not be taken as a guide.

We have won 6 play-off ties - four semis and two finals. In five of these cases if the 'ordinary season' results had been repeated in the play-off games, we would not have won; we would have lost. Portsmouth were the only one of the six opponents that we had got the better of during the season - and when it came to beating them in the p/o semi, we needed the assistance of a referee who didn't know the offside rule (and 15 seconds of brilliance from Jooooooooolian Joachim.

On the other hand, we have lost two play-off ties - the first to Blackburn, who we had done the double over during the season proper - and the other to Swindon, having drawn at their place after thumping them at Filbert Street on a freezing cold day just before Christmas.

Play-off games are one-offs - season form is no guide - they are won and lost on the day.
 
bocadillo said:
Perhaps you could ring my dad and tell him that Middlesbrough are not being quoted.
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what's his number, i'll tell him they are shite and he lives in an industiral wasteland

;-)

(seemed to missed Boro and Shef Utd off...sod em)
 
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