The Magic Number...

[Hazzman]

The non-league leagues are well used to making up for clubs going under though, seems to be a good few a season over the last few years.

Conference one team will be held back, that's normally the case. I bet ya Altrincham stay up (I don't know whether anyone will get that reference).

Non-League normally sorts itself out by putting teams hopelessly out of the depth into divisions where they require lots of stadium improvements which eventually begins the demise of many clubs.

 

[cleefox]

Conference one team will be held back, that's normally the case. I bet ya Altrincham stay up (I don't know whether anyone will get that reference).

Non-League normally sorts itself out by putting teams hopelessly out of the depth into divisions where they require lots of stadium improvements which eventually begins the demise of many clubs.

I've seen it. :icon_lol:

 

[Blue Maniac]

I've seen it. :icon_lol:

:icon_lol: Me too.

 

[Doggie_muz]

If 70 is the Magic Number, then we need 16 more points:

5 wins and a draw from the following 13 games...

That Derby, Cardiff, West Brom trio looks ominously tough!

Sheff Wed (a)
Cardiff (h)
Crystal Palace (a)
Coventry (h)
Reading (h)
Derby (a)
Cardiff (a)
West Brom (a)
QPR (h)
Peterborough (a)
Watford (h)
Preston (a)
Middlesbrough (h)

 

[GazLCFC]

If 70 is the Magic Number, then we need 16 more points:

5 wins and a draw from the following 13 games...

That Derby, Cardiff, West Brom trio looks ominously tough!

Sheff Wed (a)
Cardiff (h)
Crystal Palace (a)
Coventry (h)
Reading (h)
Derby (a)
Cardiff (a)
West Brom (a)
QPR (h)
Peterborough (a)
Watford (h)
Preston (a)
Middlesbrough (h)

It does look tough, but on our current form there is no reason why we couldn't take 3/4 points.

For the first time in long while it appears our home form is better tan our away, so it is important that we take 6 pionts (at least) from the Cov, Reading and QPR games.

 

[Blue Maniac]

 

[Darth Vodka]

by my back-of-fag-packet counting from here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_League_Championship_play-offs

the team who has finished 3rd has gone up through the play offs 8 times
4th, 4 times
5th 6 times
6th 4 times

i always had it in my head that the 6th team was a good bet as they had usually put a run together to claim it... but turns out the 3rd place team is favourite for good reasons

 

[Jeff]

i always had it in my head that the 6th team was a good bet as they had usually put a run together to claim it

A team could just as easily put a run together to claim 3rd, 4th or 5th place, and the team finishing 6th could have been challenging for automatic promotion and then had a poor run.

 

[Blue Maniac]

http://www.magicam.co.uk/

 

[Doggie_muz]

Surely 4 points is what we need now. Magic Number is 71!

If we get 4 more:
Swansea need better than two wins to go above us, given their goal difference.
Blackpool would need to win three.
Reading could go above us if they won 5 from 5 and won them well.

3 points might well be enough.

Two other nice things to consider:
1. If everything goes our way, we could be guaranteed a playoff place by 5 o'clock on Saturday.
2. Even if absolutely everything goes against us, we would still be in with a shout of making the playoffs going into the Middlesborough game.

Something for the optimists and pessimists amongst you.

 

[David Gwilliam]

by my back-of-fag-packet counting from here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_League_Championship_play-offs

the team who has finished 3rd has gone up through the play offs 8 times
4th, 4 times
5th 6 times
6th 4 times

i always had it in my head that the 6th team was a good bet as they had usually put a run together to claim it... but turns out the 3rd place team is favourite for good reasons

These are very interesting figures. The 5th getting promotion more often than the 4th and 6th could be pure chance on such a small sample. The 3rd place getting promotion 8 times is impressive. Are there any mathematicians on the forum to say whether 8 promotions in such a small sample is statistically significant?

 

[Singth]

These are very interesting figures. The 5th getting promotion more often than the 4th and 6th could be pure chance on such a small sample. The 3rd place getting promotion 8 times is impressive. Are there any mathematicians on the forum to say whether 8 promotions in such a small sample is statistically significant?

By my mathematical calculations I can confirm that it means nothing.

:icon_bigg

 

[Darth Vodka]

TAre there any mathematicians on the forum

looks like we need the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

 

[Uncle Connolly]

Surely 4 points is what we need now. Magic Number is 71!

If we get 4 more:
Swansea need better than two wins to go above us, given their goal difference.
Blackpool would need to win three.
Reading could go above us if they won 5 from 5 and won them well.

3 points might well be enough.

Two other nice things to consider:
1. If everything goes our way, we could be guaranteed a playoff place by 5 o'clock on Saturday.
2. Even if absolutely everything goes against us, we would still be in with a shout of making the playoffs going into the Middlesborough game.

Something for the optimists and pessimists amongst you.

Could you explain what would need to happen in order for this to occur?

 

[Singth]

Could you explain what would need to happen in order for this to occur?

If we win and Boro and Blackpool lose, we'll be guaranteed a play-off spot.

 

[Jeff]

Could you explain what would need to happen in order for this to occur?

If all of the following things happen we'll be guaranteed a play-off place:

We beat Watford on Saturday.
Blackpool lose to f*rest on Saturday.
Middlesbrough don't beat West Brom on Saturday.
Reading don't beat Newcastle (tomorrow) and Peterborough on Saturday.

 

[homer]

If we win and Boro and Blackpool lose, we'll be guaranteed a play-off spot.

Don't forget Reading

 

[Jeff]

If we win and Boro and Blackpool lose, we'll be guaranteed a play-off spot.

Not if Reading win their matches.

 

[4-4-2]

I'd say it could be guaranteed by 7:30pm, if City beat Watford and if...

Middlesbrough play WBA at 5:20pm so if Blackpool LOSE to Forest at 3:00pm and Boro LOSE (or DRAW) then we'll be there.

City will be on 70 with 6 points to play for. If Blackpool lose they'll be on 63 with 6 to play for. And if Middlesbrough lose, they'll be on 61 with 6 to play for, if they win then they'll be on 62.

If Boro win they'll be on 64 with and they can still reach us if we lose 2 and they win both their last games.

 

[camberwell fox]

If we win and Boro and Blackpool lose, we'll be guaranteed a play-off spot.

Not quite, even if Boro draw they can't catch us.