Post Match Watford 1 Leicester 5

[Jeff]

There was nothing between the two sides today except where it counts.

Exactly. Where it counts.

xG is not about where it counts because it doesn't take into account how good the players are. So it's bollocks. As far as xG is concerned Vardy is worth the same as Akinbiyi, if they both had the same chance.

 

[camberwell fox]

Watford had 13 shots, 5 on target and an xG of 2.47
Leicester had 13 shots, 7 on target and an xG of 2.32

What this means is that they were not very clinical with their chances and our keeper made some saves. It also means that Leicester finished very well with Foster being awful.

That's an accurate reflection of what I saw. They hit the bar and Ward made two good saves.

There was nothing between the two sides today except where it counts. We have quality finishers and they don't.

If you remove the goals from the equation you can’t see a difference between our play and theirs?

If you can’t then you need to visit ****ing specsavers.

 

[Brown Nose]

I think xG is like God. Your brain either puts the pieces together in such a way as to believe in it, or it doesn't.

And there is no point trying to persuade each side against their entrenched belief.

 

[Blue Maniac]

I think xG is like God. Your brain either puts the pieces together in such a way as to believe in it, or it doesn't.

So in other words, the credulous dipshits buy into it while the rest of us live with reality. Fantastic, absolutely perfect analogy.

 

[Brown Nose]

So in other words, the credulous dipshits buy into it while the rest of us live with reality. Fantastic, absolutely perfect analogy.

Alternatively, it may be the other way round. I like to see the scientific evidence rather than just trusting what someone believes or how other people interpret what happened.

 

[popillius]

Alternatively, it may be the other way round. I like to see the scientific evidence rather than just trusting what someone believes or how other people interpret what happened.

So if it’s a bit like God but you like to see the scientific evidence, then you agree it’s complete horseshit?

 

[tedfoxxx]

‘xG is like God……’






See you all in August, have a great summer folks x

 

[Blaarev]

xG here should be something like 0,999999999999. And he scored, so it probably proves that xG is Godlike

Ryley's special penalty | Ryley Keys was told he would never walk again. After years of hard work, he scored a penalty last night at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the North London... | By Tottenham Hotspur | Facebook

Ryley Keys was told he would never walk again. After years of hard work, he scored a penalty last night at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the North London...

fb.watch

 

[Jeff]

xG here should be something like 0,999999999999. And he scored, so it probably proves that xG is Godlike

But then there's this...

 

[Blue Maniac]

xG here should be something like 0,999999999999. And he scored, so it probably proves that xG is Godlike

Ryley's special penalty | Ryley Keys was told he would never walk again. After years of hard work, he scored a penalty last night at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the North London... | By Tottenham Hotspur | Facebook

Ryley Keys was told he would never walk again. After years of hard work, he scored a penalty last night at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the North London...

fb.watch

Retired or not, a goalie the quality of Pat Jennings should be saving that. Ruined his reputation there.

 

[Brown Nose]

The Vardy header from today had an xG of 0.01 which means that from the position on the pitch, with the ball being received in that way, his chance of scoring was extremely unlikely. Of all previous situations recorded, 99% of them don't result in a goal.

What made it happen is the absolute clown of a keeper flying out of his goal and the excellent instinct and composure of Vardy. The point being that both of these factors are not normal. The decision from the keeper was extremely unusual. The finish in the circumstances was exceptional.

If you want, you can just say that Vardy took it well and move on. It's a goal so who cares? However, if you do that, you are being lulled into a false sense of security because luck like facing Foster in that mood doesn't continue. A couple of months ago, I warned that our underlying stats were poor but we were getting results against the odds so many thought things were fine. Predictably, the luck ran out and we went on a terrible run.

Vardy is an xG monster. Every season he makes more of his opportunities than the average player in his situations. That's what makes him special. Every season we've had Vardy scoring regularly, we've probably finished about six places above where we would finish with an 'ordinary' striker. It is why our win percentage with Vardy in the side is so much higher than it is without him.

This season Vardy 'should' have scored 9 PL goals from his chances but he's got 14. In contrast, Kane should have scored 20 and he has 16. So, although on paper, Kane has two more goals this season than Vardy, it is Vardy who has been easily the better goalscorer. Especially if you take penalties out of the equation.

Vardy is 22nd in the PL on xG this season sitting just one place above Josh King. Daka (63rd) and Iheanacho (93rd) are way down the list as players that don't exceed their xG but they also don't underachieve. They get about the right number of goals.

That's the challenge we face in a future without Vardy.

 

[popillius]

The Vardy header from today had an xG of 0.01 which means that from the position on the pitch, with the ball being received in that way, his chance of scoring was extremely unlikely. Of all previous situations recorded, 99% of them don't result in a goal.

What made it happen is the absolute clown of a keeper flying out of his goal and the excellent instinct and composure of Vardy. The point being that both of these factors are not normal. The decision from the keeper was extremely unusual. The finish in the circumstances was exceptional.

If you want, you can just say that Vardy took it well and move on. It's a goal so who cares? However, if you do that, you are being lulled into a false sense of security because luck like facing Foster in that mood doesn't continue. A couple of months ago, I warned that our underlying stats were poor but we were getting results against the odds so many thought things were fine. Predictably, the luck ran out and we went on a terrible run.

Vardy is an xG monster. Every season he makes more of his opportunities than the average player in his situations. That's what makes him special. Every season we've had Vardy scoring regularly, we've probably finished about six places above where we would finish with an 'ordinary' striker. It is why our win percentage with Vardy in the side is so much higher than it is without him.

This season Vardy 'should' have scored 9 PL goals from his chances but he's got 14. In contrast, Kane should have scored 20 and he has 16. So, although on paper, Kane has two more goals this season than Vardy, it is Vardy who has been easily the better goalscorer. Especially if you take penalties out of the equation.

Vardy is 22nd in the PL on xG this season sitting just one place above Josh King. Daka (63rd) and Iheanacho (93rd) are way down the list as players that don't exceed their xG but they also don't underachieve. They get about the right number of goals.

That's the challenge we face in a future without Vardy.

Or, Vardy is great. He’s going to be almost impossible to replace.

Pretty sure I worked that out all on my own without the need for a nonsense statistic.

 

[Miles Away]

Or, Vardy is great. He’s going to be almost impossible to replace.

Pretty sure I worked that out all on my own without the need for a nonsense statistic.

Stats support that point though.

 

[Robin127]

A couple of weeks ago I was listening to Tony Meola (ex US world Cup Goalie) on the radio where he hilariously tore xG to pieces, for all the same reasons people on here do. He was arguing with one of the stats blokes on the show who was trying to use the reason it works in baseball as a reason why it should work in football. Well, Meola was also a very good baseball player and he completely destroyed that argument as you cannot compare the two at all.

 

[Jeff]

The Vardy header from today had an xG of 0.01 which means that from the position on the pitch, with the ball being received in that way, his chance of scoring was extremely unlikely. Of all previous situations recorded, 99% of them don't result in a goal.

99% of the time Vardy wouldn't have headed for goal from that position. He only did because the keeper came out. But xG doesn't take that into account. With the goalkeeper where he was, the xG should have been much higher than 0.01.

 

[KetteringPete2]

Wow! Just got in from work and checked the score. (left my phone at home FFS) Excellent result!

 

[Miles Away]

A couple of weeks ago I was listening to Tony Meola (ex US world Cup Goalie) on the radio where he hilariously tore xG to pieces, for all the same reasons people on here do. He was arguing with one of the stats blokes on the show who was trying to use the reason it works in baseball as a reason why it should work in football. Well, Meola was also a very good baseball player and he completely destroyed that argument as you cannot compare the two at all.

If I was on the side of Tony Meola, I'd probably reconsider my opinion.

 

[Robin127]

I find him quite refreshing and funny compared to most of the presenters on radio /tv in the States.

 

[fitz]

‘xG is like God……’






See you all in August, have a great summer folks x

Until that quote I would've said those fungible monkey cartoons were my favourite thing on tinternet. Now it's the cult of Xg.

 

[H T B]

After the first 10 minutes, it would have been hard to predict a 5-1 win.
This defending from set pieces, corners in particular, is beyond a ****ing joke.