Will Leicester Get Promotion?

[David Gwilliam]

First, acknowledge my sources. I hope Hazzman will not mind me resurrecting a post of his from the Bristol City thread. The season has moved on but I felt the post was fascinating and should not fade with the thread..

Re: Bristol City 0 Leicester 4
Some stats to get you all excited after Saturday's victory.
Leicester City are currently projected to achieve 80 points from 46 games. According to the averages of the past ten season, this should see City safely qualifying for the play-offs.
However, even more exciting is that the average for automatic promotion over the past ten seasons was 82 points. Not too far away from City's projected total.
In addition to this, it would required 12 wins from their 19 games to achieve this total. According to the averages City would need to win less than 50% of their games (9 wins) to achieve the playoffs. However, a major upsurge in form would be required to become Champions with a ratio of 2.16 points per game required (14 wins!).
Best news of all, the average points required to stay up was 48 points. City are currently on 47 points

In the first half of the season Cardiff have been consistently around the automatic promotion spot. There have been a number of teams including Leicester which have really been top six teams and much of a muchness.
It seems to me that Leicester are likely to get more points in the second half of the season than the first. We are a better team than the one that lost to Blackburn, Wolves and Charlton at the start of the season.

Liam Moore started a number of games in defence and did OKbut he would not get intothe back four at the moment. Keane is not only an improvement on Moore but also IMO on Whitbread and perhaps St Ledger. Nugent is in better form than at the start of the season and few people would want to see Vardy or Beckford playing alongside him in place of Wood.
For some reason Matty James looked unimpressive at the start of the season but has improved.

Both our strikers have scored recently. Our defensive record in recent matches is superb. Providing that we are able to keep Keane and that Wood and Nugent keep in good form then I think we must be favourites to go up with Cardiff.

 

[TornadoShaunUK]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Well, I don't know about you lot, but I'm pretty confident we won't get relegated this year.

 

[bocadillo]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Well, I don't know about you lot, but I'm pretty confident we won't get relegated this year.

I would go further and say that it would seem difficult now to avoid either automatic promotion or a place in the play-offs.

 

[Miles Away]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

We've certainly got a chance, but there are many more games to go. A key injury to Morgan, Wood, Nugent, Drinky would be problematic and lead to a few dodgy results.

If we can stay healthy I think we've got an excellent chance. Getting 3 points at peterboro and then against wolves would go a long way. Cardiff away? Anything is a bonus there.

I'll say this: the playoffs would leave me a wee bit deflated, earlier in the year I would have snapped your hand off for the chance at that lottery.

 

[TornadoShaunUK]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

I would go further and say that it would seem difficult now to avoid either automatic promotion or a place in the play-offs.

Well I think that's a case of counting your chickens before they've hatched. I'm a bit of a pessimist I'll admit, but even with my level head on I'd say we've been in this kind of position/form earlier in the season and ****ed it up so you can't take anything for granted. We may be second but you would expect Hull to beat Peterboro' later and overtake us again and even if they suffer another unlikely defeat there is still only going to be a point separating us from third place.

Last night's result was big though, we beat a good team whilst not at our best. We have that uncanny ability at the minute to be able to create good chances from out of the blue and we were a bit unlucky last night with the amount of times we hit the woodwork and with the first goal that was disallowed (Nuge said he was a foot off after the game but that's a goal all day long for me).

 

[Brown Nose]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

The key point for me is that the quality in the Championship this season is dreadful. The relegated sides from the Premier League haven't bounced and there are no especially good teams I've seen. Individually, Bellamy and Zaha aside, there really isn't a lot to be worried about.

I do think we're very dependent on Schmeichel, Morgan, Drinkwater and Nugent. A serious absence of any of these would have a very big impact on us. So far this season, we're been very fortunate in terms of absences of our key players.

As it stands, we're definitely good enough and well placed enough to finish top six. To finish in an automatic promotion position would require greater consistency and a tougher backbone under pressure. Many appear to think that Cardiff and Leicester are the most likely promotion teams this season. In our case, I think this view comes from a lack of quality anywhere else rather than a specific belief in us.

 

[Uncle Connolly]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

I'd be absolutely gob-smacked if we didn't get a play-off place, so look forward to some exciting twist and turns in what is turning out to be an excellent season.

As for automatic promotion? I'm really not sure - I think that's going to be an exciting scrap to the end with 2nd place well up for grabs at least.

 

[Uncle Connolly]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

The key point for me is that the quality in the Championship this season is dreadful. The relegated sides from the Premier League haven't bounced and there are no especially good teams I've seen. Individually, Bellamy and Zaha aside, there really isn't a lot to be worried about.

Completely agree with this.

Are we as good as the Southampton side last season? Very unsure... however what I will say is we are a very good side at this level.

 

[camberwell fox]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Dull draw at the Posh.

I'll take that thank you.

 

[The Major]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Dull draw at the Posh.

I'll take that thank you.

And Palace, just need Cardiff to slip up now.

 

[Miles Away]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Dull draw at the Posh.

I'll take that thank you.

Super duper.

 

[Mawsley]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Top 6 is nailed on, top 2 has become a distinct possibility and with Cardiff always choking I'd pop an e/w bet on winning the title.

 

[RHYDAL]

Top 6 is nailed on, top 2 has become a distinct possibility and with Cardiff always choking I'd pop an e/w bet on winning the title.

 

[NYC Fox]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Getting promotion is always about long runs of wins. 4 or 5 in a row 4 or 5 times in a season. We're on our way to doing that, and when you look at the teams around us, aside from Cardiff no one else is. I think Cardiff will choke, but Hull will stick around.

I think we'll win it.

 

[Nottingham Fox]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Getting promotion is always about long runs of wins. 4 or 5 in a row 4 or 5 times in a season. We're on our way to doing that, and when you look at the teams around us, aside from Cardiff no one else is. I think Cardiff will choke, but Hull will stick around.

I think we'll win it.

I actually think Cardiff will piss this league. We'll finish 2nd and I'll take that. Winning the league is not important for me, getting up is.

 

[Mawsley]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

 

[Jeff]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Getting promotion is always about long runs of wins. 4 or 5 in a row 4 or 5 times in a season.

No it's not. Sometimes teams that get promoted will have 4/5 runs of 4/5 wins in a season, but usually they don't.


Last season Reading had some long winning runs (4, 8 and 6 games, so I guess that fits your criteria), but Southampton's had 3 runs of 4 wins.

Two seasons ago the teams in the top two, QPR and Norwich, had a best winning run of four games, and they only did that once each.

When Birmingham got promoted in 2009 their best winning run was three games, and they only only did that twice.

 

[Ike O'Noclassed]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Apropos nothing very much at all, in my long, long years of LCFC following I've always thought of us as a team that when in the top flight, our modest resources lead us to the tendency to be "early risers" - getting most of our points haul before Xmas - injuries/small squads etc means we run out of puff. This explains our failure in the 62-63 double that never was season, our largely feeble attempts to mount successful relegation fights in the past, and the horrors of the Taylor era, when 2000-01 saw us getting a 35/13 split ... a foretaste of the agonies to come.

Conversely, in the Championship I assume we're more likely to be the other way round - "late developers" so to speak. The financial craziness of the last decade probably blows the resources logic out of the water, but I note that for the last two well-funded seasons, our second half hauls comfortably outperformed our first half, in the Paulo/Sven season the split being 29/38.

It has to be said that for the most part our 1st/2nd half hauls have been within 5 points one way or another, so Hazz's 82 point prediction - which would mean a 37/45 split - would probably be an unprecedented improvement taking place without a change of manager.

 

[H T B]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

Hoping this thread isn't the kiss of death to our very good current form!

In recent weeks we have gone from 5th to 2nd and now have a nice cushion between us and 7th.
Down the spine of the team we are building good partnerships, Nuge and Wood, DD & James, Wes & Keane.
This season has seen some of the most consistent, entertaining football, (with an end product) I have ever seen in alll my years supporting LCFC.
Whilst not counting any chickens, it certainly augurs well for the run in.
Now we are second, it's important that all the hard work to get us there isn't undone by complacency. (Watching NP's after match interview last night, he knows )

 

[Real Sharapova]

Re: Will Leicester Get Promotion

I actually think Cardiff will piss this league.

I agree with that, but I have a sneaky feeling they won't beat us at their place. Hope so anyway, it'll make the post match beers and meal with my travelling companions in Cardiff all the much better.