Britain is in a "deep
recession" that could get worse if efforts to save the banking system fail,
Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned today.
During a press briefing on the Bank's latest quarterly
inflation report, King said the "length and depth of the recession will depend to a significant extent on developments in the rest of the world, where a severe economic downturn has taken hold".
The economy is set to contract by as much as 4% in the first half of 2009, King said, admitting this was a sharper fall than most forecasts. Inflation is forecast to be 0.5% in two years' time, assuming interest rates are kept at their current 1%. This is significantly below the Bank's official inflation target of 2%.
"The prospects for economic growth and inflation remain unusually uncertain," King said. "Restoring both lending and confidence will not be easy and will take time."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said the statement implied that interest rates would come down further. "We see them at a low of 0.25% and my initial reaction is I see nothing to change that view. It is increasingly likely that the Bank will take additional measures on top of the asset purchase programme. I expect it to keep the door open to quantitative easing."
King said that "bank rate doesn't have to go to zero, because we're getting to the point where it doesn't make a great deal of difference where it is."
King said: "We now will be moving to is a world in which we would be buying a range of assets, certainly including gilts, to ensure that the supply of money will grow at an adequate rate to keep inflation at the target so that normal economic growth can resume."
King's caution on the economic outlook for the UK came as data showed
unemployment moved closer to the 2m mark in January.
Asked about the Bank's approach to the crisis, the governor admitted: "I'm not pretending that everything worked well. It clearly didn't... What we need to do is develop a new range of instruments."