Post Match Leicester 2 Tottenham 3

[Blue Maniac]

The handball rule has changed this season.
If a player accidentally handballs, and scores, it's handball.
If he accidentally handballs, then the ball goes to another player, whom then scores, it's a goal.

Isn’t this how we won the cup last season?

 

[FryattFox]

Perhaps a sign that we are currently 'too good to go down'
Shows progress in the long term but we need to make sure we arrest the slide. A couple more iffy signings and sales of our match winners could soon see that change.

That's not what xG and xPTS is presenting. It's stating that over a longer period of time, we would be 5th bottom. If the season was replayed 100 times to date, on average we would be 16th.

It's nothing to do with quality or pieces of individual skill. Based on the chances that we've conceded and the chances that we've created this season, we deserve to be 16th.

Which is pretty much what anyone that's been to matches has been saying. We've been second best too often.

 

[sparky79]

That's not what xG and xPTS is presenting. It's stating that over a longer period of time, we would be 5th bottom. If the season was replayed 100 times to date, on average we would be 16th.

It's nothing to do with quality or pieces of individual skill. Based on the chances that we've conceded and the chances that we've created this season, we deserve to be 16th.

Which is pretty much what anyone that's been to matches has been saying. We've been second best too often.

if you hold any store in xG. if footballers scored when they were expected to, and chances translated into wins directly then it would be a very different game.
it's probably statistically proven to correlate blah blah blah but a lot of our xG's fall to Maddison, Vardy, Daka, barnes and we score them. A lot of the opponents xG's fall to players who convert less well.

 

[sparky79]

Isn’t this how we won the cup last season?

that was accidental handball which went to another player (thomas) who passed the ball to Tielemans to score. My understanding was that if the accidental handball directly assisted a goal ie Perez's block had gone to Tielemans then it would have been ruled out.

 

[sparky79]

I also don't think it's accidental handball on Doherty's part as his arms are out from his body and braced. they aren't hanging in a natural position.
but ho hum.

 

[olibar]

but ho hum.

That's it really innit? The sort stuff that happens. Sometimes for you, sometimes against you.

It's not that we lost, it's the manner in which we lost that's pissing us off (well, me anyway) Twas farcical. I still can't quite get my head around the number of brain fart moments and mistakes that lead to it. We should have been able to close it out at 2-1. To fail to do so at 2-2, when there were but seconds on the clock, defies explanation.

 

[Richie_d123]

That's not what xG and xPTS is presenting. It's stating that over a longer period of time, we would be 5th bottom. If the season was replayed 100 times to date, on average we would be 16th.

It's nothing to do with quality or pieces of individual skill. Based on the chances that we've conceded and the chances that we've created this season, we deserve to be 16th.

Which is pretty much what anyone that's been to matches has been saying. We've been second best too often.

But quality and individual skill does play a part in games. XG alone is bullshit. A shot from 6 yards centre of goal with 6 defenders to block it on the line is worth more than an open goal tap in outside the box. Brighton have Maupay to sky it but we have Maddison to find a gap in tje first example.
Not sure how to find it myself but I'd like to see the last few seasons and how teams finish compared to their X/Whatever. Ill bet its largely inaccurate.

 

[Richie_d123]

Also i dont know when XG was first made up, but when we won the league I doubt we finished top of the XG charts then either. We just happen to have very good players.

 

[Jeff]

Also i dont know when XG was first made up, but when we won the league I doubt we finished top of the XG charts then either. We just happen to have very good players.

We'd have finished fourth on expected points in 2016.

In 2020 and 2021 we'd have finished in sixth. Wolves in 2020, and Brighton last year would have finished fifth.

 

[Richie_d123]

We'd have finished fourth on expected points in 2016.

In 2020 and 2021 we'd have finished in sixth. Wolves in 2020, and Brighton last year would have finished fifth.

So we're over achievers.

 

[camberwell fox]

So we're over achievers.

Brendan says so.

 

[fitz]

Also i dont know when XG was first made up

Made up. Aye, it's bollocks isn't it.

 

[Brown Nose]

I've only just heard BRs comments following the match. I'm perplexed by them.

He claims that his team deserved to win and did everything right for 93 mins.

What complete bollocks. Spurs absolutely battered us. They eventually scored three goals but they could have scored many more. We were awful and almost got away with what would have been daylight robbery.

I do hope he's just saying that to deflect criticism from the media because if he said that to his players, no wonder they're all over the place.

 

[olibar]

Spurs absolutely battered us. They eventually scored three goals but they could have scored many more. We were awful and almost got away with what would have been daylight robbery.

Agreed. But then we did keep them out for much of the game. So whilst we did ride our luck, we also did do something right sometimes. Give us that at least. It wasn't as it Spurs fluffed all their chances.

Not that I'm saying I agree with BR's perspective (no, we didn't "deserve" to win) but neither do I think we got everything wrong.

Deserve is a strange word in this context, and arguably subjective. Obviously, goals (and VAR) decides games.

 

[bocadillo]

I'm still waiting to hear from a Spurs fan who left while the score was 2-1.

 

[FryattFox]

But quality and individual skill does play a part in games. XG alone is bullshit. A shot from 6 yards centre of goal with 6 defenders to block it on the line is worth more than an open goal tap in outside the box. Brighton have Maupay to sky it but we have Maddison to find a gap in tje first example.
Not sure how to find it myself but I'd like to see the last few seasons and how teams finish compared to their X/Whatever. Ill bet its largely inaccurate.

I'm not going to waste either of our time debating the merits of xG.

But if you are interested, you can see all of the previous seasons' tables here. It's no more inaccurate than you'd expect from a statistical model.

 

[FryattFox]

So we're over achievers.

2020/21 actual points +6.25 over xPTS
2019/20 actual points +0.84 over xPTS
2018/19 actual points -4.24 below xPTS
2017/18 actual points -8.85 below xPTS
2016/17 actual points -4.12 below xPTS
2015/16 actual points +12.06 over xPTS

Total variance over the last six seasons = +1.94 over xPTS (or 0.55% of our total actual points of 352 points). Pretty impressive accuracy if you ask me.

So yes, we're over-achievers by 0.55% historically (or 0.3 points per season) over the last six seasons.

Variance.

 

[popillius]

2020/21 actual points +6.25 over xPTS
2019/20 actual points +0.84 over xPTS
2018/19 actual points -4.24 below xPTS
2017/18 actual points -8.85 below xPTS
2016/17 actual points -4.12 below xPTS
2015/16 actual points +12.06 over xPTS

Total variance over the last six seasons = +1.94 over xPTS (or 0.55% of our total actual points of 352 points). Pretty impressive accuracy if you ask me.

So yes, we're over-achievers by 0.55% historically (or 0.3 points per season) over the last six seasons.

Variance.

So no more accurate per season than say Lawro's guessing then.

 

[olibar]

So no more accurate per season than say Lawro's guessing then.

well that really does put it into context

perhaps we need a tL (twat Lawro) stat too?

 

[FryattFox]

So no more accurate per season than say Lawro's guessing then.

You're comparing apples and pears. Unless Lawro starts watching matches and, after the game, analyses the statistical likelihood of every chance being scored/conceded, and therefore calculates an 'expected' result, I don't see how that's relevant.

One is a forecast, and one is a historical data set.

And for the record, feel free to calculate how many points away Lawro has been for us for the last six seasons on average. I'm happy to bet 1,000 Joe_Fox bucks that it's more than 0.3pts per season on average.