Post Match Leicester 2 Tottenham 3

Log in to stop seeing adverts

Status
Not open for further replies.
You're comparing apples and pears. Unless Lawro starts watching matches and, after the game, analyses the statistical likelihood of every chance being scored/conceded, and therefore calculates an 'expected' result, I don't see how that's relevant.

One is a forecast, and one is a historical data set.

And for the record, feel free to calculate how many points away Lawro has been for us for the last six seasons on average. I'm happy to bet 1,000 Joe_Fox bucks that it's more than 0.3pts per season on average.

Aye. But they go back and analyse the chances. Then say that every game the chances Brighton create should lead to xg4 yet they score 0 or 1. At some point expected misses have to come in to the equation? Unless Brighton are now on 90+ chances a game.
 
Aye. But they go back and analyse the chances. Then say that every game the chances Brighton create should lead to xg4 yet they score 0 or 1. At some point expected misses have to come in to the equation? Unless Brighton are now on 90+ chances a game.
Honestly. It's sometimes painful trying to explain this shit.
 
You're comparing apples and pears. Unless Lawro starts watching matches and, after the game, analyses the statistical likelihood of every chance being scored/conceded, and therefore calculates an 'expected' result, I don't see how that's relevant.

One is a forecast, and one is a historical data set.

And for the record, feel free to calculate how many points away Lawro has been for us for the last six seasons on average. I'm happy to bet 1,000 Joe_Fox bucks that it's more than 0.3pts per season on average.
Or, I'm suggesting that a forecast by 1 person based on nothing more than his whim is, season by season. About as accurate as xG.
 
Or, I'm suggesting that a forecast by 1 person based on nothing more than his whim is, season by season. About as accurate as xG.
But xG itself isn't trying to forecast anything.

It can be used to assess over- or under-performance to a statistical mean. In which case it is relatively accurate over a large dataset (e.g. a much larger dataset than just 38 matches). There will always be anomalies, some of which can be explained (it's pretty clear to anyone that watches Brighton matches that they lack even an average striker).

If you're actually comparing Lawro's predictions to a model based on a database of over 100,000 shots, you must have a high opinion of Lawro.
 
But xG itself isn't trying to forecast anything.

It can be used to assess over- or under-performance to a statistical mean. In which case it is relatively accurate over a large dataset (e.g. a much larger dataset than just 38 matches). There will always be anomalies, some of which can be explained (it's pretty clear to anyone that watches Brighton matches that they lack even an average striker).

If you're actually comparing Lawro's predictions to a model based on a database of over 100,000 shots, you must have a high opinion of Lawro.
No. I have a very low opinion of xG.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Log in to stop seeing adverts

Championship

P Pld Pts
1Leeds Utd3882
2Leicester3882
3Ipswich3881
4Southampton3776
5West Brom3967
6Norwich City3961
7Hull City3859
8Coventry City3858
9Preston 3857
10Middlesbro3954
11Cardiff City3953
12Sunderland3951
13Bristol City3950
14Watford3848
15Swansea City3947
16Plymouth 3944
17Millwall3944
18Blackburn 3842
19Stoke City3942
20QPR3941
21Birmingham3940
22Huddersfield3940
23Sheffield W3939
24Rotherham Utd3921

Latest posts

Top