Points Tracker 2015/16

[xavk]

erm....Spurs have 58 points right now, 8 wins is 24 points. 58+24=82?

 

[camberwell fox]

erm....Spurs have 58 points right now, 8 wins is 24 points. 58+24=82?

Yes sorry my mistake, if they lost 1 game and won 7 they would still finish below us.

 

[xavk]

still a good state of affairs. So 17 from 24 is a very nice target to aim for from here.

 

[Dour]

You're being way too optimistic.

Even Watford could still finish above us.

 

[Brown Nose]

In order to stop staring at the league table, I've created my own spread sheet.

I've created four scenarios:

1. Repeating form over remaining matches as just completed
2. Repeating average season form over remaining matches
3. Repeating form against same opponents from earlier in the season
4. Predictions of remaining fixtures*

* As the Prediction League suggests, I'm shocking at this. However, I have meddled with my results by adding some science, some averaging based on win rates, draw rates, points averages, etc.

I've then equally weighted the four scenarios to give an average expectation of what will happen.

And it's quite interesting.

Firstly, we've already got enough points to finish fifth. Man Utd and Liverpool both finish with 61 points.

There is a final day thriller between Arsenal, Man City and West Ham for the two remaining Champions League places. West Ham blow it with a final day defeat at Stoke.

Spurs never get any closer to us than they currently are and finish with a respectable 73 points. Some 5 points clear of the hated rivals Arsenal in 3rd.

We win it with 80 points. We cruise it in fact. Even my nightmare scenario where our bottle goes and we win one of our last 6 games still has us winning it by scrambling a draw at home to Everton. In no scenario does it get as far as the last game.

This is of course mere conjecture and statistics prove nothing. Which means this is an entirely pointless post. Except it made me panic a little less about the coming weeks for an hour.

 

[LeeCovFox]

Four more wins and a drawn will be enough. I don't see Spurs winning another 18 points, which they'd need to pip us on goal difference in that scenario. I think we will win the league and I don't think it will go to the last day. It even be wrapped up before Everton.

 

[Miles Away]

In order to stop staring at the league table, I've created my own spread sheet.

I've created four scenarios:

1. Repeating form over remaining matches as just completed
2. Repeating average season form over remaining matches
3. Repeating form against same opponents from earlier in the season
4. Predictions of remaining fixtures*

* As the Prediction League suggests, I'm shocking at this. However, I have meddled with my results by adding some science, some averaging based on win rates, draw rates, points averages, etc.

I've then equally weighted the four scenarios to give an average expectation of what will happen.

And it's quite interesting.

Firstly, we've already got enough points to finish fifth. Man Utd and Liverpool both finish with 61 points.

There is a final day thriller between Arsenal, Man City and West Ham for the two remaining Champions League places. West Ham blow it with a final day defeat at Stoke.

Spurs never get any closer to us than they currently are and finish with a respectable 73 points. Some 5 points clear of the hated rivals Arsenal in 3rd.

We win it with 80 points. We cruise it in fact. Even my nightmare scenario where our bottle goes and we win one of our last 6 games still has us winning it by scrambling a draw at home to Everton. In no scenario does it get as far as the last game.

This is of course mere conjecture and statistics prove nothing. Which means this is an entirely pointless post. Except it made me panic a little less about the coming weeks for an hour.

Share it then....

 

[bocadillo]

... it made me panic a little less about the coming weeks for an hour.

That's a more level-headed post than you think.

 

[Brown Nose]

Share it then....

How do I do that?

 

[Motown Fox]

I see that there's only ManU and Southampton left that we didn't beat in the first half of the season.

 

[Blaarev]

I see that there's only ManU and Southampton left that we didn't beat in the first half of the season.

How many doubles have we done so far?

 

[camberwell fox]

How many doubles have we done so far?

Three, Norwich, Watford and Newcastle.

 

[camberwell fox]

To match the first half results against the last eight teams we play we will need to win six and draw two.

The draws in the first half of the season were against Southampton and Man U.

I suspect the results won't fall in line with the first half of the season results.

Nice if it did though as we would end up with 83 points.

 

[SwedeFox]

What's the chance of the Everton game being moved to Sunday? Should be almost certain?

 

[camberwell fox]

I would say so Swede.

 

[Jeff]

What's the chance of the Everton game being moved to Sunday? Should be almost certain?

I'm sure it will be moved for TV. But there are TV matches on Saturday and Monday too.

 

[Blaarev]

Any idea about when the May TV games will be announced?

 

[camberwell fox]

Game - singular in the weekend sense as they are not allowed to screen any of the last round of matches at differing times.

 

[SJN-Fox]

I suspect that BT will have a couple and Sky will have more than one via the red button or on different channels.

 

[SwedeFox]

I'm sure it will be moved for TV. But there are TV matches on Saturday and Monday too.

Don't they want a potential title decider on a Sunday though? Seems to me that's a good time for build-up, viewing figures etc. Also, based on April's fixtures. But I don't know how they're reasoning.