What do the stats say?

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M17TT C said:
xSaves - that should go down well here!
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After watching the Kasper interview posted here recently I think most goalkeepers would take issue with it.

Do expected assists count opportunities for a tap in, or just any chance that could conceivably be finished by one or more strikers in the world? Is an expected assist to DJ Campbell considered equal to an expected assist for Ronaldo? Does it count offside chances?
 
M17TT C said:
Did you all know about xAssists too?

Grealish said in an interview his season hadn't been as bad as some stats suggest (actual goals and assists) as his expected assists had been good this year:

www.bettingodds.com

Premier League Expected Goals & Assists Leaders 2021/22 | BettingOdds.com

Premier League Expected Goals & Assists Leaders as with almost a third of the Premier League season over with BettingOdds.com have taken a look at
www.bettingodds.com www.bettingodds.com
Click to expand...

Those stats are from November.

Here's an up to date list of xG and xA for our players.

1651000708048.png
 
jb5000 said:
That wouldn't be Rickeys on Leeds Road opposite the stadium would it?
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I believe it was. A shocking experience which has scarred me for life.
 
I'm looking forward to the introduction on unexpected goals.
 
Today we hit 81 goals conceded this season from our 52 matches with 6 or 7 games remaining.

For comparison, we conceded 61 last season from 53 matches. The season before we conceded a total of 49 goals from 48 games. Goals conceded per game:

21/22 = 1.56
20/21 = 1.15
19/20 = 1.02

Two obvious factors in this being the number of games and the injuries to defenders. However, the trend is really worrying, especially when you consider the types of goal we now concede routinely.

It's well known how poor we are defending set pieces. But only Brighton have made more defensive errors for example. Even things like 'shot creating actions' from our opponents show us up as very poor - only Norwich and Burnley have been worse than us this season at allowing opponents to create chances to score against us.

We have the same number of clean sheets this season as Norwich. And only two keepers have made more saves than Schmeichel this season (Meslier and De Gea).

Suffice it to say that the stats make very grim reading.

I think we have to have a major rethink about our defence next season. Is Schmeichel still the best possible option? If we stick with him, we need more quality at defending our penalty area to protect him. Is it worth doing that for one more season with Schmeichel highly likely to leave when his contract expires in 2023 anyway?

It looks likely that Soyuncu, Bertrand and Vestergaard will be going. But I think we need to go further. Amartey isn't good enough. Thomas isn't good enough either. We do still have three good right backs and no good left backs. Our main leader and organiser in defence is 34 and injury prone.

Then our organisation and coaching needs changing. Stowell cannot be left in charge of set pieces and Toure is doing nothing to improve the defensive unit through his coaching.
 
Brown Nose said:
Today we hit 81 goals conceded this season from our 52 matches with 6 or 7 games remaining.

For comparison, we conceded 61 last season from 53 matches. The season before we conceded a total of 49 goals from 48 games. Goals conceded per game:

21/22 = 1.56
20/21 = 1.15
19/20 = 1.02

Two obvious factors in this being the number of games and the injuries to defenders. However, the trend is really worrying, especially when you consider the types of goal we now concede routinely.

It's well known how poor we are defending set pieces. But only Brighton have made more defensive errors for example. Even things like 'shot creating actions' from our opponents show us up as very poor - only Norwich and Burnley have been worse than us this season at allowing opponents to create chances to score against us.

We have the same number of clean sheets this season as Norwich. And only two keepers have made more saves than Schmeichel this season (Meslier and De Gea).

Suffice it to say that the stats make very grim reading.

I think we have to have a major rethink about our defence next season. Is Schmeichel still the best possible option? If we stick with him, we need more quality at defending our penalty area to protect him. Is it worth doing that for one more season with Schmeichel highly likely to leave when his contract expires in 2023 anyway?

It looks likely that Soyuncu, Bertrand and Vestergaard will be going. But I think we need to go further. Amartey isn't good enough. Thomas isn't good enough either. We do still have three good right backs and no good left backs. Our main leader and organiser in defence is 34 and injury prone.

Then our organisation and coaching needs changing. Stowell cannot be left in charge of set pieces and Toure is doing nothing to improve the defensive unit through his coaching.
Click to expand...
And nearly all of this can be explained away by having Fofana and Evans out for most of the season. It isn't rocket science; if you lose your best CBs you won't defend as well. It's the replacements we need to worry about, not the GK or the first team CBs. Soyuncu is okay when he has a brain next to him but Amartey isn't that. Having Vardy out for so long makes us play in a different way as well. We have very little threat so the ball ends up being played around with for too long and inevitably, it's lost too easily. The other problem this season had been Ndidi. He's been a phenomenal asset in protecting the back four for such a long time but, by his high standards, when he has played, he has had a poor season.

You keep banging on about not having a LB but we have a brilliant one in Justin. He was exceptional there before his injury and when he switched over to the left against Roma he was so much better than he has shown himself to be on the right. What we don't have is a replacement other than Thomas and he looked perfectly adequate for a while before he lost every ounce of confidence it seemed he had collected.

For me, a strong CB, a winger, a replacement LB and a striker are musts for us if we want to keep progressing. It won't be easy though. There's always lists of players that people say we should 'get rid of' but for that to happen you need potential buyers and you need players who are willing to leave. Vestergaard is an example of a player that will be earning well and who some lower achieving clubs will want but will probably be unable to salary match. It's a very difficult situation.
 
I’ve said if before and I’ll say it again, having 25 different back four combinations in 30+ games is clearly going to have an impact on understanding, trust, organisation and consistency. Most of that is injuries, some is management and some of it is due to international defenders not being at the level of adaptability we might expect and therefore being forced to find workarounds. All of it adds up to more goals conceded than we would like and has cost us a top seven season.
 
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