camberwell fox
Well-Known Member
Good article, even if it is a tad BN ish with Xg and so on.
More interestingly is the should we sack BR comments.
More interestingly is the should we sack BR comments.
What do the stats say?
- Thread starter Brown Nose
- Start date
bocadillo
Water Gypsy
Ya ****er - now my cards are all over the floor!
bocadillo
Water Gypsy
So, until this season, we have been overachieving. Who was it first suggested that?
tedfoxxx
Well-Known Member
I always pictured you with a rotary phone.
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
Total xG from our first 4 PL matches = 3.35 (only Bournemouth have a lower total after 4 games)
Total goals scored = 6
Our top player for xG so far is Vardy with 1.04. The only other 3 players who have decent opportunities are Castagne, Maddison and Fofana(!).
In terms of creativity, we have 4 players that have made an impact with 'key passes' - Iheanacho, Perez, Maddison and Tielemans.
Total xG against from our first 4 PL matches = 6.93
Total goals conceded = 10 (Forest and Everton have conceded half the goals we have despite opponents having more xG against than us)
Based on xG, we deserved to lose 0-1 at home to Brentford, lose 3-1 at Arsenal, 0-1 against Southampton and draw 2-2 at Chelsea. So we have earned our one point!
Our lack of creativity in those two home games is pretty obvious.
We've already tried 6 different formations with 218 minutes using a back 4 and 161 with a 3/5. Our attacking and defending doesn't appear any better or worse whatever system we play.
We've scored 2 and conceded 2 in the first halves of matches. We've scored 4 and conceded 8 in the second halves. We've allowed opponents the same number of shots after 60 mins (22) as we have in the first 60 (22). We're losing matches in the last half an hour, especially when we've been making changes.
Based on xG, Leicester, Forest and Bournemouth are the worst three teams in the league.
Total goals scored = 6
Our top player for xG so far is Vardy with 1.04. The only other 3 players who have decent opportunities are Castagne, Maddison and Fofana(!).
In terms of creativity, we have 4 players that have made an impact with 'key passes' - Iheanacho, Perez, Maddison and Tielemans.
Total xG against from our first 4 PL matches = 6.93
Total goals conceded = 10 (Forest and Everton have conceded half the goals we have despite opponents having more xG against than us)
Based on xG, we deserved to lose 0-1 at home to Brentford, lose 3-1 at Arsenal, 0-1 against Southampton and draw 2-2 at Chelsea. So we have earned our one point!
Our lack of creativity in those two home games is pretty obvious.
We've already tried 6 different formations with 218 minutes using a back 4 and 161 with a 3/5. Our attacking and defending doesn't appear any better or worse whatever system we play.
We've scored 2 and conceded 2 in the first halves of matches. We've scored 4 and conceded 8 in the second halves. We've allowed opponents the same number of shots after 60 mins (22) as we have in the first 60 (22). We're losing matches in the last half an hour, especially when we've been making changes.
Based on xG, Leicester, Forest and Bournemouth are the worst three teams in the league.
tedfoxxx
Well-Known Member
Dirty boy.
City Fan
Well-Known Member
Nothing to worry about here, you bunch of bedwetters. Isn’t that right, Pop?
popillius
Well-Known Member
Once again, you fail to see the gap between saying everything is rosey and declaring the club are a gnat's snatch away from dissolving.
If you could stop milling around like a miserable **** with a chip the size of Lenny Kravitz's cock on your shoulder, simply because you have an obsession about a football manager, you might see your way clear to think about it for a moment or two.
tedfoxxx
Well-Known Member
Ooooh ****in’ lovely mate.
City Fan
Well-Known Member
I love your way with words.
Blue Maniac
Alzheimers sufferer
Lenny Kravitz?
Joe_Fox
Well-Known Member
Teams on exactly one point after four games, and whether they were relegated:
21/22 - Burnley Y, Newcastle N
20/21 - West Brom Y, Burnley N
19/20 - NONE
18/19 - Newcastle N, Huddersfield Y, Southampton N, Fulham Y
Very small dataset, but it's 50/50 since the 18/19 season. I have to say though, looking at the teams that got relegated, 50% of them were newly promoted teams (all except Burnley last year and Huddersfield in 18/19).
Soooooo, a 50% chance of a 50% chance, which is a 25% chance.
I'd love to go further back but I can't find a dataset that goes further back than 18/19. I haven't looked that hard though.
What a load of old shit. I don't know why I bothered with that.
21/22 - Burnley Y, Newcastle N
20/21 - West Brom Y, Burnley N
19/20 - NONE
18/19 - Newcastle N, Huddersfield Y, Southampton N, Fulham Y
Very small dataset, but it's 50/50 since the 18/19 season. I have to say though, looking at the teams that got relegated, 50% of them were newly promoted teams (all except Burnley last year and Huddersfield in 18/19).
Soooooo, a 50% chance of a 50% chance, which is a 25% chance.
I'd love to go further back but I can't find a dataset that goes further back than 18/19. I haven't looked that hard though.
What a load of old shit. I don't know why I bothered with that.
Joe_Fox
Well-Known Member
Right, found a better dataset - https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/
Here's how the last 13 seasons have gone for teams that were on exactly one point after four matches:
Y means they were relegated
Y+ means they were relegated and were newly promoted that season.
21/22 - Burnley Y, Newcastle N
20/21 - West Brom Y+, Burnley N
19/20 - NONE
18/19 - Newcastle N, Huddersfield Y, Southampton N, Fulham Y+
17/18 - NONE
16/17 - Sunderland Y, Stoke N
15/16 - NONE
14/15 - NONE
13/14 - Sunderland N
12/13 - Reading Y+
11/12 - Blackburn Y
10/11 - NONE
09/10 - NONE
13 teams were on exactly one point after four matches
7 were relegated
3 of those were newly promoted teams that season
6 survived
Sooooooooo, by the end of this season, it'll be back to 50/50 (7 relegated, 7 survived), right????
Here's how the last 13 seasons have gone for teams that were on exactly one point after four matches:
Y means they were relegated
Y+ means they were relegated and were newly promoted that season.
21/22 - Burnley Y, Newcastle N
20/21 - West Brom Y+, Burnley N
19/20 - NONE
18/19 - Newcastle N, Huddersfield Y, Southampton N, Fulham Y+
17/18 - NONE
16/17 - Sunderland Y, Stoke N
15/16 - NONE
14/15 - NONE
13/14 - Sunderland N
12/13 - Reading Y+
11/12 - Blackburn Y
10/11 - NONE
09/10 - NONE
13 teams were on exactly one point after four matches
7 were relegated
3 of those were newly promoted teams that season
6 survived
Sooooooooo, by the end of this season, it'll be back to 50/50 (7 relegated, 7 survived), right????
Brown Nose
Well-Known Member
I can well believe it.
MA mentioned something in the Chelsea thread that helps to explain. Essentially, our opponents allow our weak players to have possession without challenge because they trust that they won't do anything with it.
For example, Chelsea were very happy to leave Amartey in space as the 'spare' man when they were down to 10 men. Amartey carried the ball into space again and again but didn't know what to do with the ball.
They also allowed Justin time and space wide knowing that he couldn't cross with his left foot so he'd come inside every time. It's what smart opponents do.
fox58
Well-Known Member
Once Chelsea went down to 10 men, you could see their bench telling Havertz and Stirling to stay out wide to cover off our full backs, leaving Evans and Armartey with on one to mark
| P | Pld | Pts | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Manchester C | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Nottm F | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Brighton | 10 | 16 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 10 | 15 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Brentford | 9 | 13 |
| 12 | Fulham | 9 | 12 |
| 13 | Manchester U | 9 | 11 |
| 14 | West Ham | 10 | 11 |
| 15 | Leicester | 10 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton | 10 | 9 |
| 17 | Palace | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Ipswich | 10 | 5 |
| 19 | Southampton | 10 | 4 |
| 20 | Wolves | 9 | 2 |
