What do the stats say?

[FOX Franks]

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Ugh, Man City

 

[olibar]

Ugh, Man City

Indeed. If ever there was a picture to illustrate their kind of dominance...

 

[Blaarev]

Burnley-ManC are perfectly matched. Those games should be fantastic to watch. Or maybe not.

 

[big_mac4824]

Here's an article that better articulates what I've been trying to say in this thread.

That has mainly been down to Vardy not squandering chances I think his goals per chance are quite high, I would surmise that Maddison is reasonably high as well. Interesting to see we are most vulnerable in a back four.

 

[Jeff]

That has mainly been down to Vardy not squandering chances I think his goals per chance are quite high, I would surmise that Maddison is reasonably high as well.

The article does actually say that...

Vardy’s (non-penalty) return of a goal every 0.25 shots is the best of his career when records were compiled. So, too, James Maddison’s 0.14 and Youri Tielemans’ 0.12.

They have the best chance-conversion rate in the division, at 14 percent; they have scored 34 goals from an expected goals (xG) of 29.7.
Leicester’s five top scorers – Vardy, Maddison, Tielemans, Patson Daka and Ademola Lookman – have all overperformed their xG.

 

[Blue Maniac]

A goal every 0.25 shots?

 

[Jeff]

A goal every 0.25 shots?

Yes. Every time he has a shot he scores four goals.

 

[Blue Maniac]

Yes. Every time he has a shot he scores four goals.

I’d argue that’s the best of anyone’s career if it weren’t for Maddison and Tielemans doing even better

 

[bocadillo]

A goal every 0.25 shots?

It's a miracle!

 

[TommyK]

 

[FryattFox]

"Stats, schmats. Expected data means nothing. Etc."

But here's our PL form for the season over an average 8-match period. Eek.

 

[Brown Nose]

View attachment 16663

"Stats, schmats. Expected data means nothing. Etc."

But here's our PL form for the season over an average 8-match period. Eek.

That's a pretty extraordinary stat. The gap is huge and sustained for a long time now.

My eyes tell me that we've been awful for almost the entire season. With a couple of exceptions, every time we've not lost, I've come away feeling that we've been fortunate.

Our performances are improving from a really low base. But we're still very lucky to have the points we do.

 

[Lako42]

I bet they didn't say it would be this ****ing boring

 

[Brown Nose]

A feature of this season is how many unlikely goals we've scored. Today, we scored two more outstanding finishes winning the game despite not creating many clear cut openings.

**PLEASE DO NOT READ FURTHER IF YOU ARE POP OR ANY OTHER PERSON UNABLE TO APPRECIATE XG**

From both playing 27 games this season, Everton have 25 points and are in massive trouble. Their xG points are 30.83 which illustrates that they've created chances but haven't been taking them.

In 27 games, we've got 36 points with an xG of 30.32. So we've got 11 points more than Everton despite creating slightly fewer good opportunities in matches.

Defensively, both sides are again very similar. In real goals against they've conceded 47 and we've conceded 46. On the defensive xG, it looks like Pickford has conceded about 4 goals more than he should have done whereas Schmeichel has saved 3 more than he should. Fine margins again.

The point of this post is to say that we'd be in a relegation battle right now if it weren't for our excellent finishing and having a good shot stopping keeper.

 

[bocadillo]

The point of this post is to say that we'd be in a relegation battle right now if it weren't for our excellent finishing and having a good shot stopping keeper.

You don't have to believe in the Xg bollocks to know that.

 

[Blue Maniac]

**PLEASE DO NOT READ FURTHER IF YOU ARE POP OR ANY OTHER PERSON UNABLE TO APPRECIATE XG**

Funny as this is, I immediately disobeyed

The point of this post is to say that we'd be in a relegation battle right now if it weren't for our excellent finishing and having a good shot stopping keeper.

Further illustrating that xG is a stat which isn’t adjusted for who the chances fall to.

 

[glyn]

But lucky for us we do have excellent finishing and a good shot stopping keeper. Everton don’t.

I’m not an XG naysayer by the way.

 

[Brown Nose]

Goals & assists by England’s attacking midfielders in all competitions this season:

Maddison - 21
Bowen - 21
Mount - 20
Foden - 19
Sterling - 18
Barnes - 17
Saka - 15
Smith-Rowe - 12
Sancho - 8
Grealish - 7
Rashford - 7

 

[glyn]

Goals & assists by England’s attacking midfielders in all competitions this season:

Maddison - 21
Bowen - 21
Mount - 20
Foden - 19
Sterling - 18
Barnes - 17
Saka - 15
Smith-Rowe - 12
Sancho - 8
Grealish - 7
Rashford - 7

Just don’t think Southgate fancies Madders for his system at all though. Perhaps recent weeks might show he could be a bench option, but that would rely on Southgate having tactical flexibility when losing a match.

 

[Brown Nose]

Maddison's goal was LCFCs 800th in the PL - taking 601 games.

Coventry (387), Derby (271) and Notts Forest (229) have a total of 887 between them.