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tedfoxxx said:
I see Giovanni Simeone scored tonight, how does he look?
Click to expand...

His timing of his runs wasn't that great, seemed to stray into offside positions a lot, watching the game I was thinking how Vardy would have torn Liverpool apart if he'd been in that Napoli side.
 
We’ve had a Queen a King and two prime ministers since we last won a league game
 
I roughly estimate that I’ve taken about 250 shits since we last won a game.
 
Not sure if anyone still comes in here but its the correct thread for it so :

Today was the day for my annual perusal of the CL markets. You need to see a couple of games before checking for value. Should've done it last week really but I've been busy.

It shouldn't by now but they always amaze me. So many teams in the outright markets at this stage are priced based on reputation rather than how they're actually playing or the situation in their groups. It's baffling. It sorts itself out in the knockout stages but at this time of year it really shows up how little both odds compilers & punters actually pay attention.

This was a massive one :

Liverpool, before kick off tonight were a best price 8/1 to win the whole thing.

So, bearing that in mind, what do you think you could get on Napoli, currently leading the group & having stuffed said Liverpool 4-1 in the first game ?

50/1 !!

FIFTY TO ****ING ONE !

I couldn't get on quick enough.

They're now 40/1 on the back of murdering Ajax tonight. Scousers unchanged at 8/1

It makes zero sense. I'm keeping my eyes open for injury news & such & will go in again probably before the group stages finish.

I'd advise anyone to take the 40s

I'm not saying they'll actually win the whole thing but if they win the group & get a good draw in the last 16 they'll be a fraction of that price & I'll be looking to hedge for a tasty profit. Should pay the gas bill.

Thats how to approach these bets. Not looking for winners but for trading out opportunities.

Usual method (for me anyway) is if they get through, bet 20% of the potential profit on their opposition to qualify. If that happens you've made a nice little profit. On the other hand, if Napoli progress I'll cash out 50% of the remaining potential profit & leave the rest to run in case they actually make the final. If they do then i'll look at the match odds & make a decision. Looking at at least a couple of hundred quid up as a worst case scenario as long as they reach the knockout stages. The further they go after that, the bigger the profit.

Of course if they now lose the next 3 games you can call me a massive **** but that's the risk you have to be comfortable with.
It's simply a wrong price. A massive rick & those should never be ignored as they're rare these days across all markets.

NB : - You'll have to be quick. The smart money has belatedly woken up & only Betfred are now going 40/1...it might not last. I've had a few quid on it there myself. Generally its 25/1 now. Victor still go 33/1 & Unibet 30/1. All of those are still just about OK.

My original bet was at Betfair but the exchanges are now 22/1 (all of them) Still just about worth it if you don't want to use a bookie & have to fart about with lay bets to do the hedging later on down the line.

Should have posted this earlier really but i was at the LRI when I placed the bet & had other priorities at the time !
 
give_us_a_wave said:
Not sure if anyone still comes in here but its the correct thread for it so :

Today was the day for my annual perusal of the CL markets. You need to see a couple of games before checking for value. Should've done it last week really but I've been busy.

It shouldn't by now but they always amaze me. So many teams in the outright markets at this stage are priced based on reputation rather than how they're actually playing or the situation in their groups. It's baffling. It sorts itself out in the knockout stages but at this time of year it really shows up how little both odds compilers & punters actually pay attention.

This was a massive one :

Liverpool, before kick off tonight were a best price 8/1 to win the whole thing.

So, bearing that in mind, what do you think you could get on Napoli, currently leading the group & having stuffed said Liverpool 4-1 in the first game ?

50/1 !!

FIFTY TO ****ING ONE !

I couldn't get on quick enough.

They're now 40/1 on the back of murdering Ajax tonight. Scousers unchanged at 8/1

It makes zero sense. I'm keeping my eyes open for injury news & such & will go in again probably before the group stages finish.

I'd advise anyone to take the 40s

I'm not saying they'll actually win the whole thing but if they win the group & get a good draw in the last 16 they'll be a fraction of that price & I'll be looking to hedge for a tasty profit. Should pay the gas bill.

Thats how to approach these bets. Not looking for winners but for trading out opportunities.

Usual method (for me anyway) is if they get through, bet 20% of the potential profit on their opposition to qualify. If that happens you've made a nice little profit. On the other hand, if Napoli progress I'll cash out 50% of the remaining potential profit & leave the rest to run in case they actually make the final. If they do then i'll look at the match odds & make a decision. Looking at at least a couple of hundred quid up as a worst case scenario as long as they reach the knockout stages. The further they go after that, the bigger the profit.

Of course if they now lose the next 3 games you can call me a massive **** but that's the risk you have to be comfortable with.
It's simply a wrong price. A massive rick & those should never be ignored as they're rare these days across all markets.

NB : - You'll have to be quick. The smart money has belatedly woken up & only Betfred are now going 40/1...it might not last. I've had a few quid on it there myself. Generally its 25/1 now. Victor still go 33/1 & Unibet 30/1. All of those are still just about OK.

My original bet was at Betfair but the exchanges are now 22/1 (all of them) Still just about worth it if you don't want to use a bookie & have to fart about with lay bets to do the hedging later on down the line.

Should have posted this earlier really but i was at the LRI when I placed the bet & had other priorities at the time !
Click to expand...
Absolutely top work you miserable, cynical, aging degenerate. You’re easily my favourite.
 
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