Coronavirus

[ThaiSweetChilli]

True

It‘s been an absolute ****ing disaster

The whole ‘herd immunity’ horseshit actively encouraged the ****witted to go about their business as usual, thinking it‘s only going to affect the decrepit and those who were going to die anyway. ‘I can carry on as normal, it won’t affect me - lets all go to the beach’.

Complete twats

’We’re following the science’ they said , when experts were warning of the fatality risks of carrying on as normal back in January.

They've ****ed this up big time

Even if they were following the science as they thought was right at the time, now that they've changed their approach, they need to be crystal clear: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN.

The majority don't even understand what herd immunity is. It wasn't that. It's people being purely selfish when more and more evidence is suggesting that younger people are being affected more harshly than first thought. It's also that they think this is like SARS or MERS when this is much worse overall.

Compared to H1N1 (700 Million + worldwide cases and up to 575k deaths), it's so much more deadly. H1N1 estimated 0.02% fatality rate vs (currently) 4.3% +. That's a huge difference, in part because H1N1 affected younger people more, but still.

Now that they've decided to lockdown, people aren't listening because the govt are pure lame. Billy-no-bollocks. Food and medicine should be the only reason non-key workers should be able to leave. And one household member per food or medicine trip at that, not the whole bloody clan.

 

[mabrah]

We need to start dealing with people like this in my opinion:

Blimey! No messing about there. Simple and effective policing!

You can almost hear (via body language) the policeman walking up saying to himself "I'm f-ing pissed off with these are-souls who think they know better' Bang. Job done. Next.

 

[mabrah]

Stop ****ing around and make it like this. If we're in lockdown then we lockdown. I am not necessarily in favour of lockdown but i see the point of it.

I hear what you're saying. A difference between liking the rules and playing by them. The first is clearly allowed, the second essential sometimes.

 

[ThaiSweetChilli]

I hear what you're saying. A difference between liking the rules and playing by them. The first is clearly allowed, the second essential sometimes.

Exactly that. Nobody wants to be quarantined, but they're the rules, and if we play by the rules individually, then the entire team wins. And those who don't play by the rules should be vilified.

 

[Lako42]

I think I might enjoy being isolated from the British public.

Bunch of ****s

 

[popillius]

I think I might enjoy being isolated from the British public.

Bunch of ****s

Especially Steven.

 

[Blue Maniac]

Especially Steven.

Honestly, what a ****.

 

[pork pie fox]

 

[fitz]

I bet they were all healthy adults who have no underlying conditions. A bit like many that die because they're unaware of an underlying condition. Nice weather innit?

 

[Joe_Fox]

There's no need to take it out on the BBQ though, is there? Seems a bit harsh. I mean, what did the BBQ do wrong exactly?

 

[Joe_Fox]

The curve (number of cases confirmed) for the UK (and most places to be honest) is very similar to that of Italy. If patterns remain the same, and we take a 25% day on day rise, the numbers get out of hand pretty quickly.

Today 5000 (Sunday 22 March)
Tomorrow 6250 (Monday 23 March)
7812 (Tuesday 24 March)
9766 (Wednesday 25 March)
12207 (Thursday 26 March)
15258 (Friday 27 March)
19073 (Saturday 28 March)
In a week's time 23841 (Sunday 29 March)
29802 (Monday 30 March)
37252 (Tuesday 31 March)

Scary numbers, and that's just at a basic constant rate rise. Won't be far off these numbers though.

Actual numbers...

5018 (Sunday 22 March)
5686 (Monday 23 March) 564 less than predicted
6650 (Tuesday 24 March) 1162 less than predicted (598 less than predicted day on day)
8077 (Wednesday 25 March) 1689 less than predicted (527 less than predicted day on day)

This shows that 25% day on day rise is higher than actual day on day rise rate, which is good news I suppose. Based on the less than predicted day on day numbers being on average 563, I've factored these in to the predicted numbers for the coming days....

9955 (Thursday 26 March)
12443 (Friday 27 March)
15695 (Saturday 28 March)
19900 (Sunday 29 March)
25298 (Monday 30 March)
32185 (Tuesday 31 March)

As you can see, the numbers are still really quite alarming. By April Fools' day, we are likely to have around 40,000 confirmed cases in the UK. Staggering. Anything less, and the lock down will surely be classed as a success.

 

[homer]

If your fit and healthy and, preferably, if you have a car...

Sign up now:

GoodSAM

GoodSAM

www.goodsamapp.org

 

[pork pie fox]

ZOE Health Study

Fight major diseases like COVID & cancer logging your health daily with millions of community scientists supporting global health research.

covid.joinzoe.com

A project by King's College:

Take 1-minute to self-report daily, even if you are well.

Help our scientists identify:
• High-risk areas in the UK.
• Who is most at risk, by better understanding symptoms linked to underlying health conditions.
• How fast the virus is spreading in your area

 

[Matt_B]

Actual numbers...

5018 (Sunday 22 March)
5686 (Monday 23 March) 564 less than predicted
6650 (Tuesday 24 March) 1162 less than predicted (598 less than predicted day on day)
8077 (Wednesday 25 March) 1689 less than predicted (527 less than predicted day on day)

This shows that 25% day on day rise is higher than actual day on day rise rate, which is good news I suppose. Based on the less than predicted day on day numbers being on average 563, I've factored these in to the predicted numbers for the coming days....

9955 (Thursday 26 March)
12443 (Friday 27 March)
15695 (Saturday 28 March)
19900 (Sunday 29 March)
25298 (Monday 30 March)
32185 (Tuesday 31 March)

As you can see, the numbers are still really quite alarming. By April Fools' day, we are likely to have around 40,000 confirmed cases in the UK. Staggering. Anything less, and the lock down will surely be classed as a success.

Day on day rises are a bit pointless as different areas seem to be reporting them differently. Some apparently group them into week blocks etc

 

[give_us_a_wave]

The New World Order have taken over ASDA. Finally managed to find a delivery slot unattended. Booked it, filled basket, placed order.

They're delivering it to a house I moved out of 3 years ago. An address that isn't even on my account anymore.

WTF???

After much farting about it turns out that the slot never actually existed, it was a website error. Sorry about that. As for the address? They have no idea how that happened.

Its Bilderberg. It's the lizards from space. It's the Illuminati.

****s.

There was a bottle of Jim Beam in that order.

I'm ready for the insurrection (as long as it can happen without me leaving the house)

 

[homer]

Don't know about you, but that was amazing down my way

 

[pork pie fox]

Don't know about you, but that was amazing down my way

Lots here too.

 

[Joe_Fox]

Presume you're talking about the clap again, Homer?

 

[Joe_Fox]

Actual numbers...

5018 (Saturday 21 March)
5686 (Sunday 22 March) 564 less than predicted
6650 (Monday 23 March) 1162 less than predicted (598 less than predicted day on day)
8077 (Tuesday 24 March) 1689 less than predicted (527 less than predicted day on day)

This shows that 25% day on day rise is higher than actual day on day rise rate, which is good news I suppose. Based on the less than predicted day on day numbers being on average 563, I've factored these in to the predicted numbers for the coming days....

9955 (Wednesday 25 March)
12443 (Thursday 26 March)
15695 (Friday 27 March)
19900 (Saturday 28 March)
25298 (Sunday 29 March)
32185 (Monday 30 March)

As you can see, the numbers are still really quite alarming. By April Fools' day, we are likely to have around 40,000 confirmed cases in the UK. Staggering. Anything less, and the lock down will surely be classed as a success.

I know it's pointless @Matt_B, but I, along with many others I'm sure, turn to numbers in moments of crisis as numbers are emotionless and opinionless. Any way, only two days data to look at here but the 'good' news is that even after factoring in the 'less than' numbers, the predicted numbers are still higher.

9955 (Wednesday 25 March) - ACTUAL: 9529 (426 less than predicted)
12443 (Thursday 26 March) - ACTUAL: 11568 (875 less than predicted, and 449 less than predicted day on day)

An average of roughly 438 less than predicted day on day, so I'll factor these in and here are the next few days:

14381 (Friday 27 March)
18148 (Saturday 28 March)
23108 (Sunday 29 March)
29557 (Monday 30 March)

These are still scary numbers, and not hugely less than first predicted.

(I've also adjusted the dates to match the data in Wikipedia)

 

[Ike O'Noclassed]

I know it's pointless @Matt_B, but I, along with many others I'm sure, turn to numbers in moments of crisis as numbers are emotionless and opinionless. Any way, only two days data to look at here but the 'good' news is that even after factoring in the 'less than' numbers, the predicted numbers are still higher.

9955 (Wednesday 25 March) - ACTUAL: 9529 (426 less than predicted)
12443 (Thursday 26 March) - ACTUAL: 11568 (875 less than predicted, and 449 less than predicted day on day)

An average of roughly 438 less than predicted day on day, so I'll factor these in and here are the next few days:

14381 (Friday 27 March)
18148 (Saturday 28 March)
23108 (Sunday 29 March)
29557 (Monday 30 March)

These are still scary numbers, and not hugely less than first predicted.

(I've also adjusted the dates to match the data in Wikipedia)

Though you sometimes wonder with this Government, I think two factors (at least) are operating to dampen the predictions - first, time - to get our treatment ducks in a row, and secondly, learning - from others' painful experience and mistakes.