General Election - 4 July 2024

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So he's basically saying yes I did bet on the election, but not in May.

I’ve missed something in this. Do these people genuinely think no one will question them betting on their own markets, or are they just so arrogant that they don’t think it matters?

Just strikes me as a really odd thing to risk your job over
 
I’ve missed something in this. Do these people genuinely think no one will question them betting on their own markets, or are they just so arrogant that they don’t think it matters?

Just strikes me as a really odd thing to risk your job over
He's getting it out there now because he knows that it'll come out at some point, and at least this way he controls the timing and initial narrative.
 
Big day tomorrow. Tories basically conceded this morning in an effort to suppress the vote. Looks like it's going to be a wipe out. And quite a way over due.
 
A “super majority” is a bad thing in n any democracy I think.

I am sat here right get now without any decision as to who to vote for. What a shower 🧼 f shit.
 
A “super majority” is a bad thing in n any democracy I think.

The tories didn't have a super majority and they could do pretty much what they want, so I don't know what difference a bigger majority will make.


I am sat here right get now without any decision as to who to vote for.

 
A “super majority” is a bad thing in n any democracy I think.

I am sat here right get now without any decision as to who to vote for. What a shower 🧼 f shit.
There's no such thing as a super majority in what passes for the UK's constitution. A slightly bigger majority (which was no problem when the Tories had one, apparently) is just that - if anything I'd say the lack of a majority that Theresa May had and that Johnson further whittled away before 2019 was far more chaotic.

I'm in a safe Labour seat with a god-bothering homophobe for an MP, so won't be voting for her on general principle, but can't make my mind up between the Liberals and the Greens. They won't win the seat but every vote is worth a couple of quid in 'Short money' to parties in opposition. I probably will end up deciding in the polling booth.
 
I remember people I know looking at the result in 2019 & saying that an 80 seat majority would ensure Tory rule for another decade at least. They were hideously depressed. I was too obviously, but at the same time I told them not to worry too much. They were judging things as if circumstances were normal. If they had been, they'd have been right.
But it was Boris ****ing Johnson, I said. Not just the least capable person to be PM but possibly the least capable multi celled life form. If anyone can **** that up, it'll be him. Just watch & wait.
Of course, even I didn't realise just how throughly he'd manage it. It should be literally impossible to fail to that level from that starting position.

& then...when it finally cost him his job, they actually managed to find someone even worse to take over. Mind blowing. A meltdown so epic in it's scope that finally settling on a PM so inept & devoid of ideas that he barely qualifies as a placeholder seemed like an upgrade.

I've been politically engaged since I was 14 & I've never known anything like the last decade. Before it started I'd have thought it was impossible. & as with so many things in history, when you look back & examine it, it was all completely needless.

Cameron only had to say to Farage in 2013 " Give it a rest Nigel. Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out " & that would have been it. No referendum, no Brexit. Europe remains a non issue in UK elections for another generation. Absolutely nobody outside a handful of the Tory right even bother to mention it.

Cameron wins in 2015 regardless ( Labour couldn't have won a raffle under Ed Milliband ) By 2019 the Tories are led by George Osborne trying to justify nearly a decade of austerity policies that he himself masterminded as chancellor. Up against a Labour party led by either the other Milliband, or Andy Burnham.
Europe isn't mentioned once by any candidate or any voter. Or if it is, only in passing, in reference to something else.

Who wins? Difficult to say. But either way, Covid still hits in 2020. If the Tories have won the path would have been similar but the profiteering would have been a lot less brazen & there probably wouldn't have been a Partygate equivalent. Under Labour the provisions made would have been more or less similar to what we lived through. Minor differences.
Either way, tomorrow the Tories (if still there) would be facing judgement on those same austerity policies, now 14 years in, on the back of a cost of living crisis that has crippled the economy & ruined lives. They'd be every bit as ****ed as they now are.
A Labour government in power since 2019 would survive with a reduced majority as people recognised the unique circumstances. Dave or Andy would be about to start a second term.

Boris Johnson would be blustering & honking like a bad P G Wodehouse parody on the after dinner circuit at £10K a pop & occasionally turn up on a panel show. Remembered by most only as a vaguely ridiculous mayor of London.
Nobody knows who Liz Truss is. Not even her election agent.
Rishi Sunak is a junior minister at the treasury (or shadow) Jacob Rees-Mogg is still a " ****ing hell is that a real actual person alive today ? " item run at the end of Newsnight in a slow news week.
Jeremy Corbyn is about to stand as an MP for the final time before retirement after being honoured by the party for long service. Only people my age know his name.

& Farage ? Still a Euro MP. Earning a massive wedge for doing precisely ****ing nothing & happy as a pig in shite.

There's the alternative history of the UK over the past decade.

Pretty bog standard apart from Covid.

When historians sit down to write the genuine history, they're going to be worried that future generations will assume it's a parody & will feel the need to subtitle it :

" No, honest...this ACTUALLY HAPPENED !! "
 
The “Conservatives” deserve to lose.
Labour don’t deserve to win.
To be honest, they’re virtually identical.

Liz Kendall keeps sending me letters.
The single thing I could say about Labour MPs is that perhaps they could do better with a Labour government, though I have zero faith in Starmer’s ability to lead.

I’m a “stop the boats” advocate. So I’ve written to Royal Caribbean, Virgin Cruises, and P&O to ask them to **** off. Reform echo this. So I’m gonna give that guy a handjob and a vote. Can’t wait for the single most boring election day in history.
 
A “super majority” is a bad thing in n any democracy I think.

Any majority gives him the same power. Historically you'd get MPs voting with conscience and against the party on certain issues but all that's left is wrong'uns so a majority of 1 is the same as 200. I'm voting Green which is an absolute waste of time here.
 
The “Conservatives” deserve to lose.
Labour don’t deserve to win.
To be honest, they’re virtually identical.

Liz Kendall keeps sending me letters.
The single thing I could say about Labour MPs is that perhaps they could do better with a Labour government, though I have zero faith in Starmer’s ability to lead.

I’m a “stop the boats” advocate. So I’ve written to Royal Caribbean, Virgin Cruises, and P&O to ask them to **** off. Reform echo this. So I’m gonna give that guy a handjob and a vote. Can’t wait for the single most boring election day in history.
I get it but “stop the boats” is a put the plaster on it policy. It doesn’t stop the problem - these criminal networks will just find a new way.

They put up a border check to stop drugs coming in between Mexico and America. So instead they used skiffs, boats, tunnels and pilots.

Fix the problem not the symptom.
 
A “super majority” is a bad thing in n any democracy I think.

I am sat here right get now without any decision as to who to vote for. What a shower 🧼 f shit.

There's no such thing as a super majority in what passes for the UK's constitution. A slightly bigger majority (which was no problem when the Tories had one, apparently) is just that - if anything I'd say the lack of a majority that Theresa May had and that Johnson further whittled away before 2019 was far more chaotic.

I'm in a safe Labour seat with a god-bothering homophobe for an MP, so won't be voting for her on general principle, but can't make my mind up between the Liberals and the Greens. They won't win the seat but every vote is worth a couple of quid in 'Short money' to parties in opposition. I probably will end up deciding in the polling booth.
This. No such thing as a 'super majority' and it's a desperate throw by a party that know they're getting ousted and is desperately trying to cling on to something.

It's an interesting election in one way - there is only one party that has to do the things they are promising. The rest can claim whatever they like, really, with no fear of having to deliver.
 
Cameron only had to say to Farage in 2013 " Give it a rest Nigel. Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out " & that would have been it. No referendum, no Brexit. Europe remains a non issue in UK elections for another generation. Absolutely nobody outside a handful of the Tory right even bother to mention it.

Cameron wins in 2015 regardless ( Labour couldn't have won a raffle under Ed Milliband ) By 2019 the Tories are led by George Osborne trying to justify nearly a decade of austerity policies that he himself masterminded as chancellor. Up against a Labour party led by either the other Milliband, or Andy Burnham.
Europe isn't mentioned once by any candidate or any voter. Or if it is, only in passing, in reference to something else.

I think you're misremembering the situation here.

1. There was no way to just block out NF. He was in the ascendancy and taking conservative votes all over the place. The party was split and whilst the decision to take the referendum was stupid, they felt they had to offer something to win in 2015 - mostly because they had overestimated support for the hopeless Miliband.

2. Not sure why you think that NF not being on the scene would have meant Labour didn't elect Corbyn as leader by 2019. Miliband had fundamentally changed the leadership election rules by 2015 (despite warnings about what could happen). The reason Boris won (regardless of what Nadine Dorris would have us believe) was that he was up against the worst leader of the opposition of all time.

3. Europe will always be a political football - and even now in continental Europe the EU is becoming an election topic, especially with the rise of far right politics in Italy, Germany, Hungary and now France.
 
It's an interesting election in one way - there is only one party that has to do the things they are promising. The rest can claim whatever they like, really, with no fear of having to deliver.
I do find it really interesting that Labour's rhetoric has been really measured and been careful to under-promise in many ways (although critics point out that all the party's suggestions have budgetary holes in them), while a big part of the hole the Conservatives are now in is the wild overpromising that Johnson made last time around. Historically, the Conservatives would claim to be the 'adults in the room' who weren't going to give you what you couldn't afford - but such a claim would be impossible for them to make with a straight face now. This has meant that Labour are likely to lose some votes to the Greens, Liberals and various independents on the left. I don't think this will make much difference to the result but could mean some big changes in the dynamic between all the parties over the next five years.
 
If only we had none of the above as an option
I have been saying this for Years
There is no alternative to the 2 Party Monopoly. It's either the Muppets with ideas that we can go back to the NHS of the 50's like some Back to the Future movie, OR The Muppets who line their own pockets and fellow cohorts at every step possible whilst keeping the poor of our Society as poor as ever and keep the Status Quo.
The last time I voted I was shafted by a supposed fighter for what I believed in only for his head to be turned by the Tory $ and position as a puppet Deputy PM
 
I do find it really interesting that Labour's rhetoric has been really measured and been careful to under-promise in many ways (although critics point out that all the party's suggestions have budgetary holes in them), while a big part of the hole the Conservatives are now in is the wild overpromising that Johnson made last time around. Historically, the Conservatives would claim to be the 'adults in the room' who weren't going to give you what you couldn't afford - but such a claim would be impossible for them to make with a straight face now. This has meant that Labour are likely to lose some votes to the Greens, Liberals and various independents on the left. I don't think this will make much difference to the result but could mean some big changes in the dynamic between all the parties over the next five years.
Worth looking for Starmer’s response to a recent Beth Rigby question on this.

She accused him of being “captain cautious” and he responded by saying he’s trying to run a government, not a circus.

Yes - it’s restrained. Probably for the best too!
 
Lonely island looking a bit like raging racist island
 
Jimmy Carr said it best when discussing Starmer - “Starmer, seems nice enough, but somewhere in the Midlands, there’s an Asda missing its manager.”

Genius!!! And exactly how I’d describe him haha
 
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