What do the stats say?

[bocadillo]

Because dividing by 5 is really really hard

Doubling it and moving the decimal point is even harder!

 

[City Fan]

 

[jb5000]

View attachment 17206

Didn't they go on to win the World Cup or something

 

[Blue Maniac]

View attachment 17206

Even they won one of those seven

 

[Blaarev]

View attachment 17206

Records are there to be broken.

 

[fox58]

England stopper ranks best for Prem keepers, Mendy struggling, Ward woeful

Jordan Pickford has denied his opponents more goals than any other top-flight keeper. Leicester may be ruing their Kasper Schmeichel decision

www.football365.com

 

[Brown Nose]

 

[Graz]

So basically, defenders shouldn't give away penalties.

Good tactic, alert the football elders!

Penalties/free kicks are there as a deterrent to not foul - so it's not surprising that they are more over-powered than the chances that are taken away by the foul.

But also, their analysis of this doesn't look at the xG from the chances that led to the foul, just the positions where the fouls were committed. A lot of penalties are given away in opportunities where the xG was probably higher; for example, we've had a lot of ours over the last few years when Vardy has been running through on goal. That chance would have a much higher xG than, for example, a shot in a crowded penalty area after a corner, where I'd imagine far fewer penalties are given away.

Basically, I don't think the analysis is that accurate, and I think it's right that penalties should be a better chance than the chance was taken away anyway.

 

[Jeff]

I think it's right that penalties should be a better chance than the chance was taken away anyway.

Except they're not always. For example handball on the line to stop the ball going in. In situations like that they should be able to award a goal.

 

[H T B]

Except they're not always. For example handball on the line to stop the ball going in. In situations like that they should be able to award a goal.

Like a penalty try in rugby ?

 

[Jeff]

Like a penalty try in rugby ?

Yes. If you're denied a certain goal because of a foul or handball, you should get the goal.

 

[londonfox]

Yes. If you're denied a certain goal because of a foul or handball, you should get the goal.

Great idea. But can you imagine the endless debates on, “would it have been a certain goal?”. Still, that wouldn’t be a bad thing for someone who runs and Internet forum.

 

[Jeff]

Great idea. But can you imagine the endless debates on, “would it have been a certain goal?”.

The same thing happens now when deciding whether to give someone a red card for dogso.

 

[londonfox]

The same thing happens now when deciding whether to give someone a red card for dogso.

Fair point

 

[Brown Nose]

 

[tedfoxxx]

Yep.

 

[jb5000]

So even a reversion to the mean would leave us pretty shit?

 

[Brown Nose]

So even a reversion to the mean would leave us pretty shit?

Yep, that was my reading of it. Even of we had a decent keeper and cut out the ridiculous defensive cock-ups, we're still one of the worst four sides.

 

[Jeff]

Yep, that was my reading of it. Even of we had a decent keeper and cut out the ridiculous defensive cock-ups, we're still one of the worst four sides.

If we cut out the ridiculous defensive cockups our expected goals against would be a lot lower. So we'd be a lot higher.

 

[Brown Nose]

If we cut out the ridiculous defensive cockups our expected goals against would be a lot lower. So we'd be a lot higher.

Well obviously.

But the chart is highlighting the difference between actual results achieved vs.what would have been achieved if we'd done what's expected based on quality of chances for/against.

I haven't seen us missing many good chances so the point of this chart is us conceding goals that we shouldn't have.

Goalkeeper and defender errors are part of the game so they'll happen. If we'd made a normal level of errors, we're still one of the worst four teams. In reality, we've smashed everyone else out of the park with our ability to concede goals.

So there are two levels of shitness from us. The usual which would mean we're in a relegation battle and our actual performances which make us prime candidates for 20th place and the history books.