Are we bottling it?

[Skitzo]

XG doesn’t take into account who is taking the chance just where it is, it’ll be disproved then everyone will jump on the next thing

 

[Payne74]

Forest have certainly bottled it

 

[Graz]

First 19 games:
xG 31 G 41 Delta +10
xGC 23 GC 18 Delta -5

Last 18 games:
xG 31 G 26 Delta -5
xGC 22 GC 21 Delta 1

We've stopped significantly outperforming our xG. This is strongly linked to Vardy's conversion rate, where he outperformed xG by 6 goals in games 1-19 (xG 11 G 17), but has underperformed by 2 in games 20-37 (xG 8 G 6).

The xG conversation has reminded me that Michael Cox of The Athletic and Totally Football Show has spent most of the season saying how our good form wouldn't last and at some point we'd slip down the table. Mainly because of exactly that - we were significantly outperforming our xG, and it wasn't sustainable.

Obviously he was looking very wrong when we were 14 points clear of 5th. But turns out he had a point...

 

[FryattFox]

The xG conversation has reminded me that Michael Cox of The Athletic and Totally Football Show has spent most of the season saying how our good form wouldn't last and at some point we'd slip down the table. Mainly because of exactly that - we were significantly outperforming our xG, and it wasn't sustainable.

Obviously he was looking very wrong when we were 14 points clear of 5th. But turns out he had a point...

Yep. Some players can maintain a consistent level of goals/assists above their xG/xA due to playing at a different level (Messi, etc.) or being more clinical than the average (Aguero, Aubameyang, etc.). But the majority of players and teams will regress to the mean of their expected performance.

 

[mabrah]

I'd have settled for 'regression to mean'. We've been shit. Is there a calculation for that?

 

[RHYDAL]

I'd have settled for 'regression to mean'. We've been shit. Is there a calculation for that?

(Current position - highest position) x Poo

 

[tedfoxxx]

In cockney rhyming slang, "bottle" means "arse" (bottle and glass). Originally, you would "lose your bottle" - i.e. be so scared as to lose control of your bowel function. This has been shortened down to just "bottle it".


I didn‘t know that until just now.

 

[M17TT C]

Everyday is a schoolday Tedros.

 

[camberwell fox]

I'd have settled for 'regression to mean'. We've been shit. Is there a calculation for that?

Expectation / Actual - Optimism and/or Realism

 

[pork pie fox]

In cockney rhyming slang, "bottle" means "arse" (bottle and glass). Originally, you would "lose your bottle" - i.e. be so scared as to lose control of your bowel function. This has been shortened down to just "bottle it".


I didn‘t know that until just now.

I didn’t know that either. Top teaching Ted.

 

[Robin127]

Cockney rhyming slang also uses the term "aris" to describe an arse. It is double slang, "aris"is an abbreviation of aristotle from which the term "bottle and glass" derives.

 

[mabrah]

'aris, Aristotle, bottle, bottle and glass, arse

Tbh, I thought it was one of the most well known examples of rhyming slang. Obviously, you have to be a southerner to rhyme glass with arse.

 

[Robin127]

Or American.

 

[fitz]

Cockneys can **** off. Mugs. It's an arse....call it an arse. ****ing wankers.

 

[camberwell fox]

Cockneys can **** off. Mugs. It's an arse....call it an arse. ****ing wankers.

Oi

 

[RHYDAL]

Homer has a glass arse bottle full of blue bottles

 

[Miles Away]

Has to be statistically the biggest top four collapse for many a season.

 

[Brown Nose]

Our last 22 games: W6 D6 L10 F28 A31 P24

It's not quite relegation form but over a season that gives you 41 points which isn't good enough for a squad like ours and a manager who is one of the top paid bosses in world football.

We well and truly bottled it. It was a complete collapse.

That points total would have got us 7th place in any of the previous three seasons. The reason we got 5th was down to nothing more than a lame season from Spurs and Arsenal.

A season that promised so much and ended so weakly. BR messed up.

 

[City Fan]

Our last 22 games: W6 D6 L10 F28 A31 P24

It's not quite relegation form but over a season that gives you 41 points which isn't good enough for a squad like ours and a manager who is one of the top paid bosses in world football.

We well and truly bottled it. It was a complete collapse.

That points total would have got us 7th place in any of the previous three seasons. The reason we got 5th was down to nothing more than a lame season from Spurs and Arsenal.

A season that promised so much and ended so weakly. BR messed up.

But you’re forgetting we’re little old Leicester. We should just be happy with what we get.

 

[M17TT C]

But you’re forgetting we’re little old Leicester. We should just be happy with what we get.

Boring.