Are we bottling it?

Log in to stop seeing adverts
This page may contain links to companies such as eBay and Amazon. As an affiliate of these sites I may earn commission if you click the link and make a purchase

Status
Not open for further replies.
Well, I've learned something. I had to google xG.

Tbh, I'm not sure how it answers the 'bottling it' question since I just find myself moving the question down the line and asking 'why have we stopped taking advantage of good situations?' (and finding a possible solution in 'are we bottling them'!) But then I'm like that annoying child that always asks 'why?' I find questions more interesting than answers. More of a philosopher than a scientist.
 
Brown Nose said:
I find this really interesting - nicked from the Mercury:

First 19 games:
When City had higher xG: W10 D0 L0
When City had lower xG: W2 D3 L4

Last 18 games:
When City had higher xG: W6 D2 L4
When City had lower xG: W0 D3 L3

This shows we've had a better xG in the second half of the season than the first - 10/9 vs. 12/6

In the first half of the season, when we dominated, we won every single time. In the second half of the season, we've dominated just as much, if not more, but we've not taken the chances.

If we'd took advantage of the xG positions in the second half of the season in the same way as we did in the first half of the season, we'd have an additional 16 points right now.

This shows that we're not really bottling it, we've just stopped taking advantage of our good situations in matches.
Click to expand...
Or it shows that xG is as ****ing useless as a measurement as many belive it to be.
 
Brown Nose said:
I find this really interesting - nicked from the Mercury:

First 19 games:
When City had higher xG: W10 D0 L0
When City had lower xG: W2 D3 L4

Last 18 games:
When City had higher xG: W6 D2 L4
When City had lower xG: W0 D3 L3

This shows we've had a better xG in the second half of the season than the first - 10/9 vs. 12/6

In the first half of the season, when we dominated, we won every single time. In the second half of the season, we've dominated just as much, if not more, but we've not taken the chances.

If we'd took advantage of the xG positions in the second half of the season in the same way as we did in the first half of the season, we'd have an additional 16 points right now.

This shows that we're not really bottling it, we've just stopped taking advantage of our good situations in matches.
Click to expand...
First 19 games:
xG 31 G 41 Delta +10
xGC 23 GC 18 Delta -5

Last 18 games:
xG 31 G 26 Delta -5
xGC 22 GC 21 Delta 1

We've stopped significantly outperforming our xG. This is strongly linked to Vardy's conversion rate, where he outperformed xG by 6 goals in games 1-19 (xG 11 G 17), but has underperformed by 2 in games 20-37 (xG 8 G 6).
 
'outperform the xG' . wow, it's either a chat-up line or a foreign language.

Though maybe the xG is wrong. Somebody put a number in the wrong spreadsheet cell. Or was given the wrong number in the first place. What's the margin for error on xG? Or the statistical significance? I'm making it up now.
 
mabrah said:
'outperform the xG' . wow, it's either a chat-up line or a foreign language.

Though maybe the xG is wrong. Somebody put a number in the wrong spreadsheet cell. Or was given the wrong number in the first place. What's the margin for error on xG? Or the statistical significance? I'm making it up now.
Click to expand...
You are quickly becoming one of my favourite posters.
 
mabrah said:
'outperform the xG' . wow, it's either a chat-up line or a foreign language.

Though maybe the xG is wrong. Somebody put a number in the wrong spreadsheet cell. Or was given the wrong number in the first place. What's the margin for error on xG? Or the statistical significance? I'm making it up now.
Click to expand...

Do you mean the xA of xG? @Joe_Fox might have started a spreadsheet I'm not sure
 
xG is an absolute load of bollocks.
 
Rock Fox said:
is Xhamster anything to do with Freddie Starr?
Click to expand...
You can put him in the search bar on there and see what happens but I really wouldn’t recommend it.
 
Brown Nose said:
I find this really interesting - nicked from the Mercury:

First 19 games:
When City had higher xG: W10 D0 L0
When City had lower xG: W2 D3 L4

Last 18 games:
When City had higher xG: W6 D2 L4
When City had lower xG: W0 D3 L3

This shows we've had a better xG in the second half of the season than the first - 10/9 vs. 12/6

In the first half of the season, when we dominated, we won every single time. In the second half of the season, we've dominated just as much, if not more, but we've not taken the chances.

If we'd took advantage of the xG positions in the second half of the season in the same way as we did in the first half of the season, we'd have an additional 16 points right now.

This shows that we're not really bottling it, we've just stopped taking advantage of our good situations in matches.
Click to expand...

If anything it suggests the opposite to me. Missing good chances is us being shit at a really important part of the game. It’s part of the bottle job.

I quite like xG is a metric. It isn’t made up. It’s only a representation of things which actually happen on the pitch. It’s just counting.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Log in to stop seeing adverts

P Pld Pts
1Liverpool2356
2Arsenal2450
3Nottm F2447
4Chelsea2443
5Manchester C  2441
6Newcastle2441
7Bournemouth2440
8Aston Villa2437
9Fulham2436
10Brighton2434
11Brentford2431
12Palace2430
13Manchester U2429
14Tottenham 2427
15West Ham2427
16Everton2326
17Wolves2419
18Leicester2417
19Ipswich2416
20Southampton249

Latest posts

Back
Top