Coronavirus

[camberwell fox]

The test, test, test is to a certain extent pointless. We can almost without argument agree that worldwide the number of people who have caught this is perhaps between 30-100 times greater than reported because for most, the outcome is somewhere between a sore throat and a bad bout of flu.

Test, test, test proves that (eventually) the death rate will end up somewhere between 0.5% - (perhaps) 1.5%. In which case flu (annually) kills 500,000 people. This virus won’t get close to that. Of course I’m not saying ignore it but this hysteria is completely out of sync with reality.

I can’t see the problem with schools being open for the time being.

The social, economical, and ongoing effects of this outside of death could make what we are currently experiencing seen minor.

We must be measured.

 

[M17TT C]

The test, test, test is to a certain extent pointless. We can almost without argument agree that worldwide the number of people who have caught this is perhaps between 30-100 times greater than reported because for most, the outcome is somewhere between a sore throat and a bad bout of flu.

Test, test, test proves that (eventually) the death rate will end up somewhere between 0.5% - (perhaps) 1.5%. In which case flu (annually) kills 500,000 people. This virus won’t get close to that. Of course I’m not saying ignore it but this hysteria is completely out of sync with reality.

I can’t see the problem with schools being open for the time being.

The social, economical, and ongoing effects of this outside of death could make what we are currently experiencing seen minor.

We must be measured.

So you disagree with the head of the WHO then?

Nicely ended too, 'we must be measured' after arguing how testing (which is measuring!!) is pointless.

And **** your economy too - there is no economy with a sick country, its happening, deal with it.

Health > economy.

 

[camberwell fox]

No, I don’t, but I’m sick of ****ing hysteria. It’s not needed, not helpful and ridiculous.

 

[Jeff]

Test, test, test proves that (eventually) the death rate will end up somewhere between 0.5% - (perhaps) 1.5%. In which case flu (annually) kills 500,000 people.

Flu typically kills 0.1% of people who get it. Much lower than this virus. And many people have flu jabs, which protects them (although it's not 100% effective), and helps prevent it spreading.
Covid-19 is likely to infect far more people than flu, and kill at least ten times as many.

 

[pork pie fox]

From a personal perspective, I think this is welcome clarity for me, even though it means a year without any company income. It’s likely the best outcome of a shit situation and will hopefully mean my company can survive going forwards. Sounds bizarre, but that’s how I guess it might be. Time will tell on that front though.

I don’t understand why they haven’t shut schools yet, but that’s another angle. I’ll leave the discussion about the best approach to others, as I don’t know enough to comment.

 

[homer]

Can someone let me know when it’s considered appropriate to start looting ?

Don't want to go too early - but leave it too late and all the big tellies will be gone

 

[popillius]

If you had read the article none are specialists in spread of diseases. Half are not even qualified they are PhD students. Most are maths or stats people, one is an astronomer. Forgive me if I listen to the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Advisor. And before you ask they are members of the Civil Service and non political appointments. Their CV’s suggest they might know more than some keyboard warriors.

Or, you could stop being so patronising and instead of edging your bets on the advice of a few British scientists, cast your net a little wider and look at the advice being given by other experts in disease control across the planet and other measures in other countries which are proving successful in containment.

You seem to think my criticism was in some way politicised. It wasn't. I couldn't care less who is running the country right now as long as they have the foresight to look outside the boundaries of the few people invited into their office for a chinwag about the guessing game of statistical modelling. The arrogance to believe that everyone else is doing it wrong and we are doing it right is ****ing astounding. Herd immunity as a concept has its merits but there is no doubt that this strategy will, not might, but will lead to more people losing loved ones than would have been the case with better containment and control measures. I, for one, cannot begin to see where the justification for that is correct.

Oh, and for the record, I know many Ph.D students and many other Scientists who I have worked with for a lot of years from lots of different disciplines, that are clever enough and insightful enough to have done their research using the scientific method where possible. Just because they don't hold high office, really doesn't mean their opinions should be disregarded as tittle-tattle by those less qualified or less able to research as widely as them.

 

[Brown Nose]

 

[popillius]

What a surprise. Who'd have thunked it?

I don't know how much truth there is in this but most of the world have dealt with it differently. We are either ****ing geniuses or got it wrong.... I'm not convinced we are ****ing geniuses.

 

[camberwell fox]

You really can be a ****ing bore sometimes.

 

[M17TT C]

You really can be a ****ing bore sometimes.

What the hell?

This is about one up manship or anything like that, king of the forum bullshit.

This is about doing what is right for everyone.

 

[M17TT C]

What a surprise. Who'd have thunked it?

I don't know how much truth there is in this but most of the world have dealt with it differently. We are either ****ing geniuses or got it wrong.... I'm not convinced we are ****ing geniuses.

Reporter on Sky News was saying this after the speach today.

One of the London Universities that has been providing the data and modelling had come out and said this but for some reason it seems to be just being swept under the carpet.

 

[M17TT C]

For those that can't be bothered to read the full article, the key part:

The mitigation strategy "focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread — reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection", the report said, reflecting the UK strategy that was outlined last week by Boris Johnson and the chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance.

But the approach was found to be unworkable. "Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over," perhaps by as much as eight times, the report said.

In this scenario, the Imperial College team predicted as many as 250,000 deaths in Britain.

"In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days," the report explained, due to new data on likely intensive care unit demand based on the experience of Italy and Britain so far.

"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

 

[camberwell fox]

You can pull reports, stats, predictions, graphs, excel spreadsheets and many other medium to prove and disprove what you decide is the truth.

 

[camberwell fox]

p.s: Apologies BN, my anger was misguided towards you.

 

[Brown Nose]

p.s: Apologies BN, my anger was misguided towards you.

No worries. I'm sure you have good reason to be angry. It's a shit situation and I know I can push my argument too much.

I'd offer the universal Talking Balls make up gesture of a cuddle but it's no longer appropriate.
Take care of yourself.

 

[ThaiSweetChilli]

What makes things even worse is that we are scaling back largely on testing unless you are already at hospital with serious symptoms (bit pointless as I'm guessing they won't be there just to make use of the bog roll...)

Therefore we actually know very little on how this is actually spreading and everything is based on guess work.

Today marks a serious change in policy and an admission current modelling has not happened.

Time we act like countries that appear or have gotten on top of it like China & S Korea and actually follow the WHO advice of test, test, test.

South Korea has over 8000 cases and less than 100 deaths compared to Italy's outlandish numbers and one of the factors is that South Korea test 4 times as much. So they know who's infected, so those infected then isolate.

Another factor is that this disease kills men more than women, with the South Korean cases occuring 62% in women, they've got a lower fatality rate.

18.5% of Koreans are over 60 whereas 28.6% of Italians are over 60. So as this disease so far tends to affect older people, Koreans have a lower population of them are therefore less people are dying. Almost a third of Coronavirus cases in South Korea are people in their 20s.

I read somewhere also that smoking in South Korea is about 50% men and 5% women, so essentially, cases there are mainly affecting young women who don't smoke.

A lot of the result of the UK's (and other countries') fate will depend on testing but also on population breakdown, smoking rates etc. Anyone have stats on the these in the UK?

 

[ThaiSweetChilli]

No worries. I'm sure you have good reason to be angry. It's a shit situation and I know I can push my argument too much.

I'd offer the universal Talking Balls make up gesture of a cuddle but it's no longer appropriate.
Take care of yourself.

How about an online elbow touch?

Or a virtual hug?

 

[Real Sharapova]

Or, you could stop being so patronising and instead of edging your bets on the advice of a few British scientists, cast your net a little wider and look at the advice being given by other experts in disease control across the planet and other measures in other countries which are proving successful in containment.

You seem to think my criticism was in some way politicised. It wasn't. I couldn't care less who is running the country right now as long as they have the foresight to look outside the boundaries of the few people invited into their office for a chinwag about the guessing game of statistical modelling. The arrogance to believe that everyone else is doing it wrong and we are doing it right is ****ing astounding. Herd immunity as a concept has its merits but there is no doubt that this strategy will, not might, but will lead to more people losing loved ones than would have been the case with better containment and control measures. I, for one, cannot begin to see where the justification for that is correct.

Oh, and for the record, I know many Ph.D students and many other Scientists who I have worked with for a lot of years from lots of different disciplines, that are clever enough and insightful enough to have done their research using the scientific method where possible. Just because they don't hold high office, really doesn't mean their opinions should be disregarded as tittle-tattle by those less qualified or less able to research as widely as them.

I know a lot of Ph.D students. Doesn't mean they are scientists, as the article implied, some are who I would not respectfully ask advice from - extremely knowledgeable within their field but almost incapable of doing up their shoelaces. Next time I want medical advice I don't think personally I would go to an astronomer.

 

[Robin127]