The champagne on ice thread

[Mike - True Blue Tinter]

Over the last 10 years the average points for finishing 2nd has been 85, min 79, max 91.

Bearing in mind that 4 of the next 5 opponents are sniffing around at the play-off places, by 10 to 5 on Saturday March 21, when Colchester come to town, we could have a maximum by then of 89 points.

I would say that is probably the earliest 'Party Time' and we still have 3 more home 'Party Times' to follow after that!

 

[Profondo Rosso]

Over the last 10 years the average points for finishing 2nd has been 85, min 79, max 91.

its the average points for finishing 3rd thats more important, if you get 91pts and finish 2nd, you couldve finished a good 15pts ahead of 3rd, we only need to finish 1pt ahead of 3rd, or even just equal it given the current goal difference we have

Not that previous seasons tables have any effect on the current standings (dont be pedantic and say it effects which teams are in the division), but its still nice to get a rough estimate

 

[beaumontfox]

I hope it's Peterborough away, don't want the mardy arsed whinging tosspots who sit behind us being able to 'celebrate' the moment when we go up.....not after the way they've slated every single player for an entire game at one time or another.

I mean, even Satdee they were at it, having a pop at the defence for not doing enough.:icon_roll

 

[Steven]

its the average points for finishing 3rd thats more important, if you get 91pts and finish 2nd, you couldve finished a good 15pts ahead of 3rd, we only need to finish 1pt ahead of 3rd, or even just equal it given the current goal difference we have

Not that previous seasons tables have any effect on the current standings (dont be pedantic and say it effects which teams are in the division), but its still nice to get a rough estimate

Starting with 97/98

3 Grimsby Town 46 19 15 12 55 37 11 7 5 30 14 8 8 7 25 23 (55) 72
3 Manchester City 46 22 16 8 69 33 13 6 4 38 14 9 10 4 31 19 (69) 82
3 Gillingham 46 25 10 11 79 48 16 3 4 46 21 9 7 7 33 27 +31 85
3 Reading 46 25 11 10 86 52 15 5 3 58 26 10 6 7 28 26 +34 86
3 Brentford 46 24 11 11 77 43 17 5 1 48 12 7 6 10 29 31 +34 83
3 Bristol City 46 24 11 11 79 48 15 5 3 43 15 9 6 8 36 33 +31 83
3 Bristol City 46 23 13 10 58 37 15 6 2 34 12 8 7 8 24 25 +21 82
3 Tranmere Rovers 46 22 13 11 73 55 14 5 4 43 23 8 8 7 30 32 +18 79
3 Brentford 46 20 16 10 72 52 10 8 5 35 23 10 8 5 37 29 +20 76
3 Blackpool 46 24 11 11 76 49 12 6 5 40 25 12 5 6 36 24 +27 83
3 Doncaster Rovers 46 23 11 12 65 41 14 4 5 34 18 9 7 7 31 23 +24 80

72+82+85+86+83+83+82+79+76+83+80 = 891

Eleven matches means that the average is 81.

 

[Jeff]

72+82+85+86+83+83+82+79+76+83+80 = 891

Eleven matches means that the average is 81.

It's ridiculous to use an average points as a target, this season might not be average.

 

[Steven]

It's ridiculous to use an average points as a target, this season might not be average.

It is not so ridiculous if the season is average :icon_bigg :icon_wink We won't know until after the season has ended. :icon_conf

 

[Willlow]

Didnt we go down last season with a record number of points for a team to be relegated?

 

[Jeff]

It is not so ridiculous if the season is average :icon_bigg :icon_wink We won't know until after the season has ended. :icon_conf

But if you're setting a target you want to be on the safe side, not set one that will only be enough half the time.

Were you happy last season because we did better than the average points needed to avoid relegation?

 

[consty]

Failure to get promotion from this position would probably rank as the biggest blow up in the entire history of the football league.

As long as we are no worse than Cheltenham to the end of the season, it's a done deal. Outside of MK, I can't see anyone else hitting 85.
.

Agree completely.

I understand peoples' caution with stats and averages earlier in this thread but I'd repeat my earlier point that it's slightly safer to look at averages with most the season gone & extrapolate on the basis of what teams have managed so far given that the season is so far advanced. This helps take into account if this is a year with a higher or lower average attainment from the top teams.

With 8-9 games to go I've simply added an attainment of a pretty outstanding return of 2 points per game (which NO other team has managed so far) to assess that the best teams below Leicester will manage at best 82-84 points. Thus Leicester will only need 7 points to be champions at 85 points from 8 games. I think a couple less points will do it actually because even a late surge from anyone would suprise me if they got above 82 points.

This is all guess work really at the end of the day, but I thought I'd join in!

 

[Granite Fox]

Agree completely.
I understand peoples' caution with stats and averages earlier in this thread but I'd repeat my earlier point that it's slightly safer to look at averages with most the season gone & extrapolate on the basis of what teams have managed so far given that the season is so far advanced. With 8-9 games to go I've simply added an attainment of a pretty outstanding return of 2 points per game (which NO other team has managed so far) to assess that the best teams below Leicester will manage at best 82-84 points. Thus Leicester will only need 7 points to be champions at 85 points from 8 games. I think a couple less points will do it actually.
It's all guess work really, but I thought I'd join in!

If you look at my earlier post (No 77) you will notice I have been saying this for a few days Consty.

If you look at Steven's analysis of the third place teams you could say that 84 points is likely to be enough (but there is still risk) and we would be very unlucky to miss out on promotion if we had 87 points (9 more points from the last 10 games and no team has failed to go up so far with this many points).

I think we have some tough games coming up (Tranmere, Millwall & Posh away), but we have more than coped with similar tough games earlier in the season.

 

[consty]

If you look at my earlier post (No 77) you will notice I have been saying this for a few days Consty.

If you look at Steven's analysis of the third place teams you could say that 84 points is likely to be enough (but there is still risk) and we would be very unlucky to miss out on promotion if we had 87 points (9 more points from the last 10 games and no team has failed to go up so far with this many points).

I think we have some tough games coming up (Tranmere, Millwall & Posh away), but we have more than coped with similar tough games earlier in the season.

Yes I noted you were thinking on the same lines, but there are several who are thinking with somewhat more trepidation.

 

[Granite Fox]

Yes I noted you were thinking on the same lines, but there are several who are thinking with somewhat more trepidation.

Some people are always looking on the bleak side. Too many years of disappointment and failure I suppose.

I cannot believe we would cock it up from here, not even Citeh!

 

[SJN-Fox]

I cannot believe we would cock it up from here, not even Citeh!

I really really really wish you hadn't said that.

 

[Granite Fox]

I really really really wish you hadn't said that.

I can't help myself!

I don't believe we will either (cock it up). I think we will end up with about 90 points minimum and hopefully quite a few more.

 

[jb5000]

Starting with 97/98

3 Grimsby Town 46 19 15 12 55 37 11 7 5 30 14 8 8 7 25 23 (55) 72
3 Manchester City 46 22 16 8 69 33 13 6 4 38 14 9 10 4 31 19 (69) 82
3 Gillingham 46 25 10 11 79 48 16 3 4 46 21 9 7 7 33 27 +31 85
3 Reading 46 25 11 10 86 52 15 5 3 58 26 10 6 7 28 26 +34 86
3 Brentford 46 24 11 11 77 43 17 5 1 48 12 7 6 10 29 31 +34 83
3 Bristol City 46 24 11 11 79 48 15 5 3 43 15 9 6 8 36 33 +31 83
3 Bristol City 46 23 13 10 58 37 15 6 2 34 12 8 7 8 24 25 +21 82
3 Tranmere Rovers 46 22 13 11 73 55 14 5 4 43 23 8 8 7 30 32 +18 79
3 Brentford 46 20 16 10 72 52 10 8 5 35 23 10 8 5 37 29 +20 76
3 Blackpool 46 24 11 11 76 49 12 6 5 40 25 12 5 6 36 24 +27 83
3 Doncaster Rovers 46 23 11 12 65 41 14 4 5 34 18 9 7 7 31 23 +24 80

72+82+85+86+83+83+82+79+76+83+80 = 891

Eleven matches means that the average is 81.

It's daft using the mean average here. The median average is 82 - meaning that on 82 we should expect a 50/50 chance of going straight up.

The standard deviation is just over 4, so on 90 points we should expect a 95% chance of going up, and it would be statistically very unlikely for us not to go up on 94 points.

I don't know, 31 and that Maths A level has only just become useful...

 

[Profondo Rosso]

It's daft using the mean average here. The median average is 82 - meaning that on 82 we should expect a 50/50 chance of going straight up.

The standard deviation is just over 4, so on 90 points we should expect a 95% chance of going up, and it would be statistically very unlikely for us not to go up on 94 points.

I don't know, 31 and that Maths A level has only just become useful...

:icon_lol:

Well i was just looking at the highest points score, which is 86. Seems better to aim high than average.

Though your standard deviation seems to be look more accurate, ill have to take your word for it :icon_wink

 

[Brauny Blue]

No movement tonight, still on 14th.:icon_conf

 

[foxpodder]

I know that no one is panicking! Over the current form from the last 8 matches the final totals for those most likely to go up automatically are;

Leicester City @ 1.37 points per game - final total 90
Peterborough @ 2.00 ppg - final total 87
MK Dons @ 1.62 ppg - final total 83
Millwall @ 1.75 ppg - final total 83

Of course there is no reason to expect that current form will keep going for everyone .... but to be honest based on our season long form we have really got to implode to miss out on automatic promotion - and the others have got to improve their current form.

I'd say we are up - probably, but not certainly. And that should keep any dozy buggers in the squad on their toes

 

[LS6_Fox]

I cannot believe we would cock it up from here, not even Citeh!

Now you've done it :icon_wink

 

[Brauny Blue]

We are on the march again.

Great win and now past the 80 mark

The champagne is a step nearer as we say goodbye today to

Stockport
Colchester.
Huddersfield.
Walsall

Already gone

Hartlepool
Carlisle
Northampton
Yeovil
Hereford.
Cheltenham
Crewe
L Orient
Swindon
Brighton

LEICESTERS LOWEST LGE POSITION IS NOW 10TH