It's impossible to say with any certainty. Until his last few games, I thought aspects of his game were dreadful. His first touch at times was not of a professional standard and his lack of composure and variable positional sense too often let him down.
But it is remarkable what experience and confidence can do for someone. This season, he's added a level of commitment and fitness that promoted him above the Waghorn/Schlupp options. He began to lead the defence from the front. His chasing down of lost causes and determination to make life difficult for defenders has been admirable and endearing. This bought him some time.
In the last month or so, the technical side of his game has transformed. I'd genuinely not believe it was the same player. In one recent home game, his touch and understanding was top class, genuinely top Premier League quality. Whether this was always in him or whether it's developed on the training ground is unclear. But the £1m spent no longer looks absurd. It looks like a terrific piece of business. It's as if he finally believes that he is good enough for this level.
His career stands or falls by what happens over the next year. We'll go up. But can we play two strikers in the top league? Personally, I doubt it. In which case, is Vardy good enough to play as the lone striker? Who knows. What happens when we lose a few, will his confidence crumble?
I can see an equal case for him being in the England squad next year or out on loan to a poor Championship team scrambling for a goal.